Reply to Elmendorf and Ettinger: Photoperiod playsa dominantand irreplaceable role in triggering secondary growth resumption

In their Letter, Elmendorf and Ettinger (1) question the dominant role of photoperiod in driving secondary growth resumption (hereafter referred to as xylem formation onset) of the Northern Hemisphere conifers, recently reported by Huang et al. (2). Their opinions are grounded on the following three aspects, including 1) the seasonality of the photoperiod, 2) the dependence of the predictor variables (e.g., photoperiod, forcing, and chilling) on the response variable (the date of onset of xylem formation, day of the year [DOY]), and 3) the limited value of the obtained models for interannual forecasting. We think they bring up an interesting issue that deserves further discussion and clarification. Photoperiod is acknowledged to regulate spring bud swelling while wood formation starts (3, 4). Although photoperiod seasonality occurs at each site, its influence is marginal in our study given that the analysis involved comparisons among sites across the Northern Hemisphere. Our conclusion that photoperiod plays a dominant role was built upon the combination of several coherent pieces of evidence, rather than “the crux of Huang et al….” as they pointed out. First, we clearly stated that model 2, which modeled DOY as a function of the mean annual temperature of the site (MAT), forcing, chilling, and soil moisture, was considered the best model in terms of parsimony according to minimum Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion, rather than R2 as referred to in their Letter. Second, photoperiod interacted with MAT and can explain 61.7% of the variance of MAT alone (2). Therefore, we concluded that secondary growth resumption was driven primarily by MAT and photoperiod or by their interaction, which is challenging to be disentangled without experimental data, we agree. In terms of biological functioning, they play an ..

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks