Revisiting mortality deceleration patterns in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham framework

We calculate life-table aging rates (LARs) for overall mortality by estimating a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham (G GM) model and taking advantage of LAR’s parametric representation by Vaupel and Zhang [34]. For selected HMD countries, we study how the evolution of estimated LAR patterns could explain observed 1) longevity dynamics, and 2) mortality improvement or deterioration at different ages. Surprisingly, the age of mortality deceleration x showed almost no correlation with a number of longevity measures apart from e0. In addition, as mortality concentrates at older ages with time, its characteristic bell-shaped pattern becomes more pronounced. Moreover, in a GGM framework, we identify the impact of senescent mortality on shape of the rate of population aging. We also find evidence for a strong relationship between x and the statistically significant curvilinear changes in the evolution of e0 over time. Finally, model-based LARs appear to be consistent with point b) of the “heterogeneity hypothesis” [12]: mortality deceleration, due to selection effects, should shift to older ages as the level of total adult mortality declines

Patterns and localized structures in bistable semiconductor resonators

We report experiments on spatial switching dynamics and steady state structures of passive nonlinear semiconductor resonators of large Fresnel number. Extended patterns and switching front dynamics are observed and investigated. Evidence of localization of structures is given.Comment: 5 pages with 9 figure

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Quantised Vortices in an Exciton-Polariton Fluid

One of the most striking quantum effects in a low temperature interacting Bose gas is superfluidity. First observed in liquid 4He, this phenomenon has been intensively studied in a variety of systems for its amazing features such as the persistence of superflows and the quantization of the angular momentum of vortices. The achievement of Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) in dilute atomic gases provided an exceptional opportunity to observe and study superfluidity in an extremely clean and controlled environment. In the solid state, Bose-Einstein condensation of exciton polaritons has now been reported several times. Polaritons are strongly interacting light-matter quasi-particles, naturally occurring in semiconductor microcavities in the strong coupling regime and constitute a very interesting example of composite bosons. Even though pioneering experiments have recently addressed the propagation of a fluid of coherent polaritons, still no conclusive evidence is yet available of its superfluid nature. In the present Letter, we report the observation of spontaneous formation of pinned quantised vortices in the Bose-condensed phase of a polariton fluid by means of phase and amplitude imaging. Theoretical insight into the possible origin of such vortices is presented in terms of a generalised Gross-Pitaevskii equation. The implications of our observations concerning the superfluid nature of the non-equilibrium polariton fluid are finally discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

The prognostic value of the hypoxia markers CA IX and GLUT 1 and the cytokines VEGF and IL 6 in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated by radiotherapy ± chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Several parameters of the tumor microenvironment, such as hypoxia, inflammation and angiogenesis, play a critical role in tumor aggressiveness and treatment response. A major question remains if these markers can be used to stratify patients to certain treatment protocols. The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-relationship and the prognostic significance of several biological and clinicopathological parameters in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated by radiotherapy ± chemotherapy. METHODS: We used two subgroups of a retrospective series for which CT-determined tumoral perfusion correlated with local control. In the first subgroup (n = 67), immunohistochemistry for carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX) and glucose transporter-1 (GLUT-1) was performed on the pretreatment tumor biopsy. In the second subgroup (n = 34), enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to determine pretreatment levels of the cytokines vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in serum. Correlation was investigated between tumoral perfusion and each of these biological markers, as well as between the markers mutually. The prognostic value of these microenvironmental parameters was also evaluated. RESULTS: For CA IX and GLUT-1, the combined assessment of patients with both markers expressed above the median showed an independent correlation with local control (p = 0.02) and disease-free survival (p = 0.04) with a trend for regional control (p = 0.06). In the second subgroup, IL-6 pretreatment serum level above the median was the only independent predictor of local control (p = 0.009), disease-free survival (p = 0.02) and overall survival (p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, we are the first to report a link in HNSCC between IL-6 pretreatment serum levels and radioresistance in vivo. This link is supported by the strong prognostic association of pretreatment IL-6 with local control, known to be the most important parameter to judge radiotherapy responses. Furthermore, the combined assessment of CA IX and GLUT-1 correlated independently with prognosis. This is a valuable indication that a combined approach is important in the investigation of prognostic markers