Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

We define and analyze an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination in order to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. We find that epidemics are rarely prevented. We also find that severe epidemics may occur without the introduction of pandemic strains. We further address the situation where market incentives are introduced to help ameliorating epidemics. Surprisingly, we find that vaccinating families exacerbates epidemics. However, a public health program requesting prepayment of vaccinations may significantly ameliorate influenza epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Are political views related to smoking and support for tobacco control policies? A survey across 28 European countries.

Background: General political views are rarely considered when discussing public support for tobacco control policies and tobacco use. The aim of this study was to explore potential associations between political views, smoking and support for tobacco control policies. Methods: We analysed responses from 22,313 individuals aged ≥15 years from 28 European Union (EU) member states, who self-reported their political views (far-left [1-2 on a scale 1-10]; centre-left (3-4); centre (5-6); centre-right (7-8); and far-right (9-10) in wave 82.4 of the Eurobarometer survey in 2014. We ran multi-level logistic regression models to explore associations between political views and smoking, as well as support for tobacco control policies, adjusting for socio-demographic factors. Results: Compared to those placing themselves at the political centre, people with far-left political views were more likely to be current smokers (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.13; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.26), while those in the centre-right were the least likely to smoke (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.76-0.93). Similar associations were found for having ever been a smoker. Respondents on the left side of the political spectrum were more likely to support tobacco control policies and those on the centre-right were less likely to support them, as compared to those at the political centre, after controlling for smoking status. Conclusions: General political views may be associated not only with support for tobacco control policies, but even with smoking behaviours, which should be taken into account when discussing these issues at a population level. Further research is needed to explore the implications of these findings

How do Europeans quit using tobacco, e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products? A cross-sectional analysis in 28 European countries

Objectives: While smoking tobacco remains a substantial cause of harm in Europe, novel products such as electronic cigarettes or e-cigarettes (ECs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have entered the market recently. While debate still persists over the role of these novel products, they are now in widespread use. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and methods of attempts to quit EC and HTP. Setting: We analysed the 2020 Eurobarometer survey, which collected data in 28 European countries. Participants: A representative sample of individuals residing in these countries aged ≥15 years. Primary and secondary: outcome measures Multilevel regression analyses were performed to assess differences in quit attempts and cessation methods among tobacco smokers and exclusive EC/HTP users separately. Results: 51.1% of current tobacco smokers and 27.1% of exclusive EC or HTP users reported having ever made a quit attempt. The majority of former and current smokers (75.8%) who made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 28.8% reporting at least one attempt using a cessation aid. The most popular cessation aids were nicotine replacement therapy or other medication (13.4%) and ECs (11.3%). 58.8% of exclusive EC or HTP users who had made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 39.5% reporting the use of a cessation aid. Conclusion: Most EC and HTP users in Europe try to quit unassisted, although more of them report the use of a cessation aid compared with tobacco smokers. Cessation support services should take into consideration the increasing numbers of users of EC and HTP who may be trying to quit

Long-term global distribution of earth's shortwave radiation budget at the top of atmosphere

The mean monthly shortwave (SW) radiation budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA) was computed on 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution for the 14-year period from 1984 to 1997, using a radiative transfer model with long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2) supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) Global Reanalysis project, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS). The model radiative fluxes at TOA were validated against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) S4 scanner satellite data (1985–1989). The model is able to predict the seasonal and geographical variation of SW TOA fluxes. On a mean annual and global basis, the model is in very good agreement with ERBE, overestimating the outgoing SW radiation at TOA (OSR) by 0.93 Wm^-2 (or by 0.92%), within the ERBE uncertainties. At pixel level, the OSR differences between model and ERBE are mostly within ±10 Wm^-2, with ±5 Wm^-2 over extended regions, while there exist some geographic areas with differences of up to 40 Wm^-2, associated with uncertainties in cloud properties and surface albedo. The 14-year average model results give a planetary albedo equal to 29.6% and a TOA OSR flux of 101.2 Wm^-2. A significant linearly decreasing trend in OSR and planetary albedo was found, equal to 2.3 Wm^-2 and 0.6% (in absolute values), respectively, over the 14-year period (from January 1984 to December 1997), indicating an increasing solar planetary warming. This planetary SW radiative heating occurs in the tropical and sub-tropical areas (20° S–20° N), with clouds being the most likely cause. The computed global mean OSR anomaly ranges within ±4 Wm^-2, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events or Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant negative OSR anomalies, starting from year 1992, are also detected

ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

International audienceWe have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR) at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S?40° N, 90° E?75° W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text). A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A) time-series, in the region 7° S?5° N 160° E-160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from ?45 Wm?2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm?2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S?5° N, 120?140° E), where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm?2 to ?20 Wm?2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the north subtropical Pacific region 7?15° N 150?170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail

Associations of e-cigarette experimentation with support for tobacco control policies in the European Union, 2012-2014

Introduction: There are limited data on the potential effects of e-cigarette experimentation on support for tobacco control policies. To bridge this gap, we assessed associations between e-cigarette experimentation and support for tobacco control policies in the European Union 2012-2014. We also investigated variations across tobacco-use status, e-cigarette experimentation and sociodemographic characteristics. Methods: Datasets were used from the Special Eurobarometer for Tobacco surveys performed in 2012 (n=26 751) and 2014 (n=27 801). Tobacco control policies assessed were: banning advertising, policies to keep tobacco out of sight, banning online sales, banning flavors, standardized packaging, tax increases, and policies to reduce illicit trade in tobacco. We use multilevel logistic regression models to assess variations in socio-demographics and tobacco/e-cigarette use with support for these policies in 2014, and examined changes in support for these policies, between 2012 and 2014, separately by tobacco-use status (never, current, and former smokers). Results: Population support for tobacco control policies was high in 2014: policies to reduce illicit trade had the highest level of support at 70.1%, while tax increases were the least likely measure to be supported with 52.3% support. Among never and former smokers, experimentation with e-cigarettes was associated with reduced support for all tobacco control policies assessed. For example, never smokers who had experimented with e-cigarettes were less likely to support either tobacco advertising bans (adjusted odds ratio aOR=0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.71) or standardized packaging for tobacco (aOR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.47-0.71). Former smokers who had experimented with e-cigarettes were less likely to either support standardized packaging for tobacco (aOR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.82) or keeping tobacco out of sight (aOR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.90). Among current smokers, e-cigarette experimentation was not associated with support for the tobacco control policies assessed. Conclusions: E-cigarette experimentation was consistently associated with reduced support for tobacco control policies among never and former smokers but not among current smokers. The implications of these findings for tobacco control are unknown, but the data support concerns that e-cigarette experimentation may affect public support for established tobacco control policies within specific subgroups. Further research is needed to assess potential long-term impacts on tobacco control policies

Global distribution of Earth's surface shortwave radiation budget

International audienceThe monthly mean shortwave (SW) radiation budget at the Earth's surface (SRB) was computed on 2.5-degree longitude-latitude resolution for the 17-year period from 1984 to 2000, using a radiative transfer model accounting for the key physical parameters that determine the surface SRB, and long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2). The model input data were supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Reanalysis projects, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS). The model surface radiative fluxes were validated against surface measurements from 22 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) covering the years 1992-2000, and from 700 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), covering the period 1984-2000. The model is in good agreement with BSRN and GEBA, with a negative bias of 14 and 6.5 Wm-2, respectively. The model is able to reproduce interesting features of the seasonal and geographical variation of the surface SW fluxes at global scale. Based on the 17-year average model results, the global mean SW downward surface radiation (DSR) is equal to 171.6 Wm-2, whereas the net downward (or absorbed) surface SW radiation is equal to 149.4 Wm-2, values that correspond to 50.2 and 43.7% of the incoming SW radiation at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. These values involve a long-term surface albedo equal to 12.9%. Significant increasing trends in DSR and net DSR fluxes were found, equal to 4.1 and 3.7 Wm-2, respectively, over the 1984-2000 period (equivalent to 2.4 and 2.2 Wm-2 per decade), indicating an increasing surface solar radiative heating. This surface SW radiative heating is primarily attributed to clouds, especially low-level, and secondarily to other parameters such as total precipitable water. The surface solar heating occurs mainly in the period starting from the early 1990s, in contrast to decreasing trend in DSR through the late 1980s. The computed global mean DSR and net DSR flux anomalies were found to range within ±8 and ±6 Wm-2, respectively, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events, and the Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant positive anomalies have occurred in the period 1992-2000

Analysis of the decrease in the tropical mean outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere for the period 1984-2000

International audienceA decadal-scale trend in the tropical radiative energy budget has been observed recently by satellites, which however is not reproduced by climate models. In the present study, we have computed the outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) at 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution and on a mean monthly basis for the 17-year period 1984-2000, by using a deterministic solar radiative transfer model and cloud climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 database. Anomaly time series for the mean monthly pixel-level OSR fluxes, as well as for the key physical parameters, were constructed. A significant decreasing trend in OSR anomalies, starting mainly from the late 1980s, was found in tropical and subtropical regions (30° S-30° N), indicating a decadal increase in solar planetary heating equal to 1.9±0.3Wm-2/decade, reproducing well the features recorded by satellite observations, in contrast to climate model results. This increase in solar planetary heating, however, is accompanied by a similar increase in planetary cooling, due to increased outgoing longwave radiation, so that there is no change in net radiation. The model computed OSR trend is in good agreement with the corresponding linear decadal decrease of 2.5±0.4Wm-2/decade in tropical mean OSR anomalies derived from ERBE S-10N non-scanner data (edition 2). An attempt was made to identify the physical processes responsible for the decreasing trend in tropical mean OSR. A detailed correlation analysis using pixel-level anomalies of model computed OSR flux and ISCCP cloud cover over the entire tropical and subtropical region (30° S-30° N), gave a correlation coefficient of 0.79, indicating that decreasing cloud cover is the main reason for the tropical OSR trend. According to the ISCCP-D2 data derived from the combined visible/infrared (VIS/IR) analysis, the tropical cloud cover has decreased by 6.6±0.2% per decade, in relative terms. A detailed analysis of the inter-annual and long-term variability of the various parameters determining the OSR at TOA, has shown that the most important contribution to the observed OSR trend comes from a decrease in low-level cloud cover over the period 1984-2000, followed by decreases in middle and high-level cloud cover. Note, however, that there still remain some uncertainties associated with the existence and magnitude of trends in ISCCP-D2 cloud amounts. Opposite but small trends are introduced by increases in cloud scattering optical depth of low and middle clouds