Analysis of contamination in cluster randomized trials of malaria interventions

BACKGROUND: In cluster randomized trials (CRTs) of interventions against malaria, mosquito movement between households ultimately leads to contamination between intervention and control arms, unless they are separated by wide buffer zones. METHODS: This paper proposes a method for adjusting estimates of intervention effectiveness for contamination and for estimating a contamination range between intervention arms, the distance over which contamination measurably biases the estimate of effectiveness. A sigmoid function is fitted to malaria prevalence or incidence data as a function of the distance of households to the intervention boundary, stratified by intervention status and including a random effect for the clustering. The method is evaluated in a simulation study, corresponding to a range of rural settings with varying intervention effectiveness and contamination range, and applied to a CRT of insecticide treated nets in Ghana. RESULTS: The simulations indicate that the method leads to approximately unbiased estimates of effectiveness. Precision decreases with increasing mosquito movement, but the contamination range is much smaller than the maximum distance traveled by mosquitoes. For the method to provide precise and approximately unbiased estimates, at least 50% of the households should be at distances greater than the estimated contamination range from the discordant intervention arm. CONCLUSIONS: A sigmoid approach provides an appropriate analysis for a CRT in the presence of contamination. Outcome data from boundary zones should not be discarded but used to provide estimates of the contamination range. This gives an alternative to "fried egg" designs, which use large clusters (increasing costs) and exclude buffer zones to avoid bias

"Linkage to care" among people living with HIV - definition in the era of "universal test and treat" in a sub-Sahara African setting

BACKGROUND: Prompt linkage to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care after diagnosis is of utmost importance for individual health and reduction of HIV transmission. Different definitions for "linkage to care" have challenged comparisons as a public health marker. Its meaning in the era of "universal test and treat" has transformed in all settings, but is most relevant in sub-Sahara Africa, where the burden of new HIV infection is still highest. METHODS: For this narrative review on "linkage to care" definitions with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa, we searched PubMed/Medline between September and December 2020, restricted to the period 2000-2020 using Boolean operators: "HIV" AND ("linkage to care" OR "engagement in care") and screened for institutional definitions of "linkage to care". Additionally, as one example of a rural sub-Saharan African setting, we analysed linkage steps within the Chronic Diseases Clinic Ifakara (CDCI) and its associated Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO) in rural Tanzania between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2019. RESULTS: We analysed 81 articles that included "linkage to care" within different study settings and HIV organisations. Major differences in defining "linkage to care" exist, according to setting and location, patient populations and the timing of steps within the linkage process. We identified 16 different numerators and 10 denominators used to define linkage with time periods ranging from "same day as diagnosis" up to 12 months after diagnosis among 34 original articles from sub-Saharan Africa. At the CDCI, 1149/1671 (69%) newly diagnosed individuals were enrolled into care after diagnosis. Three months after enrolment into care, 94%, 86%, 85% and 71% of enrolled patients had a laboratory evaluation, a clinical evaluation, were initiated on treatment and had a first clinical follow-up visit after initiation of treatment, respectively. DUSCUSSION: To address the inconsistency in defining "linkage to care" and in order to guarantee the comparability of "linkage to care" in the sub-Saharan Africa region, we support the definition from the European region with some adaptions. We suggest a priority list of care indicators if more than one care indicator is available for successful "linkage to care" in the era of "universal test and treat" for sub-Sahara Africa

Mortality in a cohort of people living with HIV in rural Tanzania, accounting for unseen mortality among those lost to follow-up

Mortality assessment in cohorts with high lost to follow-up (LTFU) is challenging in settings with limited civil registration systems. We aimed to assess mortality in a clinical cohort (KIULARCO) of HIV-infected persons in rural Tanzania, accounting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU. We included adults enrolled in 2005-2015 and traced a non-random sample of those LTFU. We estimated mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods with: A) routinely-captured data; B) crudely incorporating tracing data; C) weighting using tracing data to crudely correct for unobserved deaths among participants LTFU; and D) weighting using tracing data accounting for participant characteristics. We investigated associated factors using proportional hazards models. Among 7460 adults, 646 (9%) died, 883 (12%) transferred clinics, and 2911 (39%) were LTFU. Of 2010 (69%) traced participants, 325 (16%) were found: 131 (40%) died and 130 (40%) transferred. Five-year mortality estimates were A) 13.1%; B) 16.2%; C) 36.8%; D) 35.1%. Higher mortality was associated with male sex, referral as hospital in-patient, living close to the clinic, lower body mass index, more advanced WHO stage, lower CD4 count, and less time since antiretroviral therapy initiation. Adjusting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU approximately doubled the five-year mortality estimates. Our approach is applicable to other cohorts adopting targeted tracing

Predictors of spontaneous remission and recovery among women with untreated perinatal depression in India and Pakistan

Abstract Background Mothers with perinatal depression can show different symptom trajectories and may spontaneously remit from depression, however, the latter is poorly understood. This is the first study which sought to investigate predictors of spontaneous remission and longer-term recovery among untreated women with perinatal depression. Methods We analysed data from two randomised controlled trials in women with perinatal depression in India and Pakistan. Analyses were restricted to women in the control groups who did not receive active treatment. Generalised estimating equations and logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for within-person correlation. Results In multivariable analyses, remission was associated with a husband who is not working (adjusted OR, aOR = 2.04, 95% CI 1.02–4.11), lower Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score at baseline (aOR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.20–0.90 for score of ≥20 vs. 10–14) and better social support at baseline (aOR = 2.37, 95% CI 1.32–4.27 for high vs. low social support). Conclusions Women with low baseline severity may remit from perinatal depression with adequate social support from family and friends. These factors are important contributors to the management of perinatal depression and the prevention of clinical worsening, and should be considered when designing low-threshold psychological interventions. </jats:sec

Causes of death and associated factors over a decade of follow-up in a cohort of people living with HIV in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Nearly half of HIV-related deaths occur in East and Southern Africa, yet data on causes of death (COD) are scarce. We determined COD and associated factors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in rural Tanzania. METHODS: PLHIV attending the Chronic Diseases Clinic of Ifakara, Morogoro are invited to enrol in the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO). Among adults (>/= 15 years) enrolled in 2005-2018, with follow-up through April 2019, we classified COD in comprehensive classes and as HIV- or non-HIV-related. In the subset of participants enrolled in 2013-2018 (when data were more complete), we assessed cause-specific mortality using cumulative incidences, and associated factors using proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Among 9871 adults (65% female, 26% CD4 count < 100 cells/mm(3)), 926 (9%) died, among whom COD were available for 474 (51%), with missing COD mainly in earlier years. The most common COD were tuberculosis (N = 127, 27%), non-AIDS-related infections (N = 72, 15%), and other AIDS-related infections (N = 59, 12%). Cardiovascular and renal deaths emerged as important COD in later calendar years, with 27% of deaths in 2018 attributable to cardiovascular causes. Most deaths (51%) occurred within the first six months following enrolment. Among 3956 participants enrolled in 2013-2018 (N = 203 deaths, 200 with COD ascertained), tuberculosis persisted as the most common COD (25%), but substantial proportions of deaths from six months after enrolment onwards were attributable to renal (14%), non-AIDS-related infections (13%), other AIDS-related infections (10%) and cardiovascular (10%) causes. Factors associated with higher HIV-related mortality were sex, younger age, living in Ifakara town, HIV status disclosure, hospitalisation, not being underweight, lower CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and gaps in care. Factors associated with higher non-HIV-related mortality included not having an HIV-positive partner, lower CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and gaps in care. CONCLUSION: Incidence of HIV-related mortality was higher than that of non-HIV-related mortality, even in more recent years, likely due to late presentation. Tuberculosis was the leading specific COD identified, particularly soon after enrolment, while in later calendar years cardiovascular and renal causes emerged as important, emphasising the need for improved screening and management

Prevalence, incidence and predictors of renal impairment in persons with HIV receiving protease-inhibitors in rural Tanzania

OBJECTIVE: Ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (bPI) in people living with HIV (PLWH) have been associated with renal impairment. Limited data are available from rural sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Using data from the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort Study (KIULARCO) in rural Tanzania from 2005-01/2020, we assessed the prevalence of renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2) at the time of switch from first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) to bPI-regimen and the incidence of renal impairment on bPI. We assessed risk factors for renal impairment using logistic and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Renal impairment was present in 52/687 PLWH (7.6%) at the switch to bPI. Among 556 participants with normal kidney function at switch, 41 (7.4%) developed renal impairment after a median time of 3.5 (IQR 1.6-5.1) years (incidence 22/1,000 person-years (95%CI 16.1-29.8)). Factors associated with renal impairment at switch were older age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.55 per 10 years; 95%CI 1.15-2.11), body mass index (BMI) /=18kg/m2; 95%CI 1.28-6.14) and arterial hypertension (aOR 2.33; 95%CI 1.03-5.28). The risk of renal impairment was lower with increased duration of ART use (aOR 0.78 per one-year increase; 95%CI 0.67-0.91). The renal impairment incidence under bPI was associated with older age (adjusted hazard ratio 2.01 per 10 years; 95%CI 1.46-2.78). CONCLUSIONS: In PLWH in rural sub-Saharan Africa, prevalence and incidence of renal impairment among those who were switched from first-line to bPI-regimens were high. We found associations between renal impairment and older age, arterial hypertension, low BMI and time on ART

Body mass index trends and its impact of under and overweight on outcome among PLHIV on antiretroviral treatment in rural Tanzania: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Increased body weight is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is increasingly reported as a health problem in people living with HIV (PLHIV). There is limited data from rural sub-Saharan Africa, where malnutrition usually presents with both over- and undernutrition. We aimed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of underweight and overweight/obesity in PLHIV enrolled in a cohort in rural Tanzania before the introduction of integrase inhibitors. METHODS: This nested study of the prospective Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort included adults aged ≥19 years initiated on antiretroviral therapy between 01/2013 and 12/2018 with follow-up through 06/2019. Body Mass Index (BMI) was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), or overweight/obese (≥25.0 kg/m2). Stratified piecewise linear mixed models were used to assess the association between baseline characteristics and follow-up BMI. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time-updated BMI and death/loss to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS: Among 2,129 patients, 22,027 BMI measurements (median 9 measurements: interquartile range 5-15) were analysed. At baseline, 398 (19%) patients were underweight and 356 (17%) were overweight/obese. The majority of patients were female (n = 1249; 59%), and aged 35-44 years (779; 37%). During the first 9 months, for every three additional months on antiretroviral therapy, BMI increased by 2% (95% confidence interval 1-2%, p<0.0001) among patients underweight at baseline and by 0.7% (0.5-0.6%, p 2 times the hazard of death/LTFU compared to participants with normal BMI. CONCLUSION: We found a double burden of malnutrition, with underweight being an independent predictor of mortality. Monitoring and measures to address both states of malnutrition among PLHIV should be integrated into routine HIV care

Efficacy and safety of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose compared with oral iron for the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in women after childbirth in Tanzania: a parallelgroup, open-label, randomised controlled phase 3 trial

Background: Iron deficiency anaemia is of major concern in low-income settings, especially for women of childbearing age. Oral iron substitution efficacy is limited by poor compliance and iron depletion severity. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral iron substitution following childbirth in women with iron deficiency anaemia in Tanzania. Methods: This parallel-group, open-label, randomised controlled phase 3 trial was done at Bagamoyo District Hospital and Mwananyamala Hospital, Tanzania. Eligible participants were close to delivery and had iron deficiency anaemia defined as a haemoglobin concentration of less than 110 g/L and a ferritin concentration of less than 50 μg/L measured within 14 days before childbirth. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive intravenous ferric carboxymaltose or oral iron, stratified by haemoglobin concentration and site. Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose was administered at a dose determined by the haemoglobin concentration and bodyweight (bodyweight 35 kg to <70 kg and haemoglobin ≥100 g/L: 1000 mg in one dose; bodyweight 35 kg to <70 kg and haemoglobin <100 g/L, or bodyweight ≥70 kg and haemoglobin ≥100 g/L: 1500 mg in two doses at least 7 days apart; bodyweight ≥70 kg and haemoglobin 115 g/L) at 6 weeks. Follow-up visits were at 6 weeks, and 3, 6, and 12 months. Analyses were done in the modified intention-totreat population of participants who had a 6-week haemoglobin concentration result, using logistic and linear regression models for binary and continuous outcomes, adjusted for baseline haemoglobin concentration and site. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02541708. Findings: Between Oct 8, 2015, and March 14, 2017, 533 individuals were screened and 230 were enrolled and randomly assigned to a study group (114 to intravenous iron, 116 to oral iron). At 6 weeks, 94 (82%) participants in the intravenous iron group and 92 (79%) in the oral iron group were assessed for the primary outcome. 75 (80%) participants in the intravenous iron group and 47 (51%) in the oral iron group had normalised haemoglobin (odds ratio 4·65, 95% CI 2·33-9·27). There were two mild to moderate infusion-related adverse events; and five serious adverse events (three in the intravenous iron group, two in the oral iron group), unrelated to the study medication. Interpretation: Intravenous iron substitution with ferric carboxymaltose was safe and yielded a better haemoglobin response than oral iron. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide evidence of the benefits and safety of intravenous iron substitution in a low-income setting

Decentralization of viral load testing to improve HIV care and treatment cascade in rural Tanzania: observational study from the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring HIV viral load (HVL) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended by the World Health Organization. Implementation of HVL testing programs have been affected by logistic and organizational challenges. Here we describe the HVL monitoring cascade in a rural setting in Tanzania and compare turnaround times (TAT) between an on-site and a referral laboratory. METHODS: In a nested study of the prospective Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO) we included PLHIV aged >/= 15 years, on ART for >/= 6 months after implementation of routine HVL monitoring in 2017. We assessed proportions of PLHIV with a blood sample taken for HVL, whose results came back, and who were virally suppressed (HVL /= 1000 copies/mL). We described the proportion of PLHIV with unsuppressed HVL and adequate measures taken as per national guidelines and outcomes among those with low-level viremia (LLV; 100-999 copies/mL). We compare TAT between on-site and referral laboratories by Wilcoxon rank sum tests. RESULTS: From 2017 to 2020, among 4,454 PLHIV, 4,238 (95%) had a blood sample taken and 4,177 (99%) of those had a result. Of those, 3,683 (88%) were virally suppressed. In the 494 (12%) unsuppressed PLHIV, 425 (86%) had a follow-up HVL (102 (24%) within 4 months and 158 (37%) had virologic failure. Of these, 103 (65%) were already on second-line ART and 32/55 (58%) switched from first- to second-line ART after a median of 7.7 months (IQR 4.7-12.7). In the 371 (9%) PLHIV with LLV, 327 (88%) had a follow-up HVL. Of these, 267 (82%) resuppressed to < 100 copies/ml, 41 (13%) had persistent LLV and 19 (6%) had unsuppressed HVL. The median TAT for return of HVL results was 21 days (IQR 13-39) at the on-site versus 59 days (IQR 27-99) at the referral laboratory (p < 0.001) with PLHIV receiving the HVL results after a median of 91 days (IQR 36-94; similar for both laboratories). CONCLUSION: Robust HVL monitoring is achievable in remote resource-limited settings. More focus is needed on care models for PLHIV with high viral loads to timely address results from routine HVL monitoring

The Chronic Diseases Clinic of Ifakara (CDCI)- establishing a model clinic for chronic care delivery in rural sub-Saharan Africa

The rollout of antiretroviral drugs in sub-Saharan Africa to address the huge health impact of the HIV pandemic has been one of the largest projects undertaken in medical history and is an unprecedented medical success story. However, the path has been and still is characterized by many far reaching implementational challenges. Here, we report on the building and maintaining of a role model clinic in Ifakara, rural Southwestern Tanzania, within a collaborative project to support HIV services within the national program, training for staff and integrated research to better understand local needs and improve patients' outcomes