Fiscal incidence analysis: Healthcare

This study makes particular use of concentration curves to isolate distributional effects and information graphically. The main source for data is the GHS2006. However, the GHS2006 does not provide adequate income date for the incidence analysis. A distribution of household per capita income was consequently developed by the broader project combining income distribution information from the Income and Expenditure Survey of 2006 (Statistics South Africa) with asset information from the GHS2006. Concentration curves are used throughout to demonstrate possible distributional effects within the health system. It is found that the medical scheme population typically makes use of private health providers, while the non-medical scheme population predominantly uses the public provider system. The findings with regard to the non-medical scheme population indicate that certain conditions are biased toward low-income groups while others other biased higher-income groups. Within the former group are Tuberculosis (TB), Diarrhoea, and AIDS. However, AIDS is not as pronounced in the lowest income groups as is the case with TB and HT. Trauma appears to closely follow the equality line, while chronic conditions associated with lifestyle show a slight bias toward higher income groups. Satisfaction with services also differs according to income groups in which individuals are found.National government expenditure, Health

Undoing the sleights of hand: Prophets and scholars – two mythic discourses

By comparing the historical recalibration of the myth of the Mother of the Gods in Athens with the scholarly construction of the mysteries in nineteenth and twentieth century religio-historical scholarship, this essay argues that just as primary practitioners of religious discourse engage in religious mythmaking, so too do scholars of religion. Both the practice of religion and scholarship on religion subsist in the  political domain of social discourse and mythmaking. However, the two kinds of mythmaking are not simply identical. It is the distance to the discourse afforded the scholar that enables scholarship as politically committed denaturalisation, or historicisation, of religious tradition and reflexive scholarship

Good idea: Limiting indirect discrimination

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The application of the doctrine of a loss of a chance to recover in medical law

About the publication In this book, Pat van den Heever assesses the application of the doctrine of a loss of a chance in medical negligence cases in South Africa. He emphasises the difficulties often encountered by courts when adjudicating on causation in medical negligence cases in the face of multiple causation theories. On the basis of a thorough review of the position regarding the doctrine of a loss of a chance in The United States of America, Australia and Britain, he proposes for South Africa a de lege ferenda loss of chance model for application in medical negligence matters. As the first ever major work dealing with the application of the doctrine of a loss of a chance in medical negligence matters in South Africa, this book is of interest to the courts and the legal profession generally, legal academics working in the field of medical law and the law of delict, health care providers, and members of the medical and allied professions, their councils, associations and protection societies. "This publication is the first authoritative and substantive research on the doctrine of a loss of a chance in the context of medical negligence in South African medical law ... Dr van den Heever's thorough and comprehensive comparative approach and discussion of the doctrine here, is commendable ... [T]his publication is indeed timely!" - Pieter Carstens, Professor of Medical Law, University of PretoriaPublishe

Applications of Machine Learning in Apple Crop Yield Prediction

This study proposes the application of machine learning techniques to predict yield in the apple industry. Crop yield prediction is important because it impacts resource and capacity planning. It is, however, challenging because yield is affected by multiple interrelated factors such as climate conditions and orchard management practices. Machine learning methods have the ability to model complex relationships between input and output features. This study considers the following machine learning methods for apple yield prediction: multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests and gradient boosting. The models are trained, optimised, and evaluated using both a random and chronological data split, and the out-of-sample results are compared to find the best-suited model. The methodology is based on a literature analysis that aims to provide a holistic view of the field of study by including research in the following domains: smart farming, machine learning, apple crop management and crop yield prediction. The models are built using apple production data and environmental factors, with the modelled yield measured in metric tonnes per hectare. The results show that the random forest model is the best performing model overall with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 21.52 and 14.14 using the chronological and random data splits respectively. The final machine learning model outperforms simple estimator models showing that a data-driven approach using machine learning methods has the potential to benefit apple growers

Chapter 12 The usefulness of violent ends

Throughout 2015 and 2016 there have been constant violent protests, destruction of university property, and clashes between protesters and police and security personnel on various campuses. An apocalyptic worldview is essentially a violent worldview. In the eschatological lore that animates ISIS ideologically, the city of Dabiq in northern Syria near the Turkish border is the site of the end-time apocalyptic war. In the vision of the author of the Dabiq article, immersion in Western society is to be a hypocrite or an about-to-be apostate. The changes in social constitution of Spanish society also brought with them increasing clamour for a political voice. As the Republican government set about its programme of re-engineering Spanish society, to a large extent the Catholic Church became the central focus of the cultural wars escalating in the country. Two political forces played a central role in the unfolding of the civil war: the army and the Catholic Church

One Virus, Two Countries – A critical review

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Pleading the defence of therapeutic privilege

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The effect of aerosol exposure on foundry workers and arc welders at a large engineering plant in South Africa

ThesisSouth African data regarding the extent of aerosol exposure and health effects in the workplace are limited. Furthermore, a shortage of industrial hygiene- and epidemiological data from large scale studies exist. Given the increasing concern about the health of industrial metal workers, an inhalation exposure study of South African iron foundry workers and welders at a large engineering plant in Bloemfontein, was undertaken. The aim of the study was to compile a source inventory, identifying and characterising all health related inorganic aerosols to which metal workers of the plant are potentially or actually exposed. In addition, the exposure risk was assessed by the integration of aerosol concentrations and biological data from urine analyses. Aerosols were sampled by means of time sequence particulate sampling on streaker filter frames and analysed with Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) on the Tandem van de Graaff accelerator of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. The streaker is analysed in 1 mm steps, corresponding to 1 hour of exposure. PIXE analysis yielded concentrations or detection limits of elements AI, Si, P, S, CI, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, In, Br and Pb. The urine of selected exposed workers was sampled according to NIOSH method 8310 and analysed using Atomic Absorption (AA) spectrometry for the urine-metal concentrations In, Cd, Co, Ni, Mn, Cu, Cr, AI, Fe, Pb, Si and V. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1 ), peak expiratory flow (PEF), peak inspiratory flow (PI F), average expiratory flow between 25 % and 75 % of FVC (FEF25-7S), expiratory flow at 25 % of FVC (Vmax2S), expiratory flow at 50 % of FVC (VmaxSO) , expiratory flow at 75 % of FVC (Vma>c7S) and forced expiration time (100 % FVC) (FET1oo), was conducted with a Cosmed Pony spirometer. This was done to provide a physical image of the workers' lungs. A new method for the assessment of aerosol inhalation exposure risk, called ,~ER, using aerosol concentrations and metal urine concentrations, is proposed for estimation of the inhalation risk. The assumptions and calculation for the new method are presented. A number of sources or source categories have been identified in the foundry's and welding shop's air by making use of patterns of time variations and elemental ratios. Six sources namely crustal particles, sulphur, In-Pb-CI, two distinct components of different castings and other heavy metals were identified as sources. The main pollutants and the relative contributions from other sources have been identified for iron foundries and welding shops with recognised air quality problems. Overexposure occurred during specific operations which was also quantified for rectification. The urine analysis of the foundry workers yielded high concentrations of Cd, Cu, Fe and Si. It is assumed that the Fe and Si concentrations are exposure related. The analysis of urine from the welders yielded high concentrations of Ni, Cr and Fe. Although Ni concentrations in the workroom air were low, the occurrence of all three elements in the urine may be as a result of chronic exposure to welding fumes in their workplace. Except for vanadium, no statistical significant differences (P > 0.05) were found between the different metal urine concentrations of the workers of the two localities. The total exposed foundry population showed a significant decrease in FEV1 and FVC which indicates that the pollution in the workplace contributes to the development of restrictive lung disorders in foundry workers. The dust created during the welding of steel in the welding shop is a contributing agent in the development of obstructive respiratory disorders in the welder population. Examination of the relationship between elemental variations has allowed identification of several sources and activities contributing to airborne particles. The aerosol profiles did not show similar diurnal time variation patterns in the foundry or the welding shop due to irregularities in the continuation of the processes. The AIER for the foundry resulted in a maximum value of 92.3 % while the corresponding value for the welding environment was 71.7 %. The resu lts pres~t the worst case scenario during winter conditions and it is expected that conditions will be more healthy during summer time when windows and doors are open. The planning and prioritisation for the improvement of indoor air quality in both workplaces can proceed, using the data on the sources of the pollutants. It can be concluded that workers exposed to conditions as found during this project, will experience health problems after chronic exposure. The results emphasised the importance of exposure characterisation in order to provide for identification of pollutants, control of sources and the application of industrial hygiene principles for the protection of human health. It is recommended that all industries implement exposure characterisation programmes as a tool in applying good occupational and environmental hygiene