Walleye Out of the Frying Pan and into the Fire: How Will Climate Change Influence Ontario Walleye (Sander Vitreus) and Small Mouth Bass (Micropterus Dolomien) Populations? Do Small Mouth Bass Invasions Negatively Influence Walleye Abundance?

Climate change will impact freshwater fish communities in Ontario. Warmwater species are expanding their ranges northward while cool and coldwater species are expected to shift or decline under the current rates of warming. Our first objective was to examine how a warmwater predator, smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and a coolwater predator, walleye (Sander vitreus), will respond to climate change. Our second objective was to determine if smallmouth bass expansions negatively influence Ontario walleye abundances. Data was provided by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Climatic Research Unit. We projected that smallmouth bass will undergo range expansions throughout Ontario while walleye will become extirpated in their southern ranges and shift into northern waters. We also observed that there were fewer walleye at the landscape scale when they share lakes with smallmouth bass. These findings underscore the importance of proactive fisheries management and curbing climate change

Topology and geometry in chiral liquids

We study the interplay of topology and geometry with chirality for several passive and active systems, employing both analytical and numerical methods. In chapter 1, we explain how nematic liquid crystals confined in toroidal geometries undergo structural phase transitions depending on the slenderness of the confining toroid. In chapter 2, we consider a system of active polar swimmers that align with their neighbors. When confined in the right geometry, the system will self-assemble into a state with topologically protected chiral acoustic modes. The chirality in this system manifests itself as a temporal one, rather than a spatial chirality. Chapter 3 shows how systems of Yukawa charged active spinning dimers self-assemble into a crystal phase with spatiotemporal order, a liquid phase or a glass phase depending on the density. Depending on the phase and the confinement geometry of these systems of actively spinning dimers, the system will allow for rigid body rotations or edge currents. Finally, in chapter 4 we introduce a novel method of doing molecular dynamics on curved surfaces by developing a symplectic integrator. We present preliminary results on two-dimensional crystal melting in the presence of curvature. We find that the crystal may melt inhomogeneously.Theoretical Physic

An uncertain future for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou): The impact of climate change on winter distribution in Ontario

Habitat alteration and climate change are two important environmental stressors posing increasing threats to woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou, in Ontario. Our first objective was to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on the occurrence of woodland caribou during the winter season using over 30 years of records (1980-2012). Our second objective was to forecast the impacts of climate change on the future occurrence and range of woodland caribou. Woodland caribou occurrence and environmental data collected during 1980 to 2012 were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Logistic regression models were used to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on woodland caribou. We then forecast future caribou occurrences using 126 future climate projections. Woodland caribou preferred coniferous forests and mixed forests that tended to be associated with increased lichen coverage, and regions with colder winters. Woodland caribou also avoided anthropogenically disturbed regions, such as areas associated with high road density or developed areas. Caribou range extent was projected to contract by 57.2-100% by 2050 and 58.9-100% by 2070. Furthermore, all 126 climate change scenarios forecast a range loss of at least 55% for woodland caribou in Ontario by 2050. We project complete loss of woodland caribou in Ontario if winter temperatures increase by more than 5.6°C by 2070. We found that woodland caribou in Ontario are sensitive to changes in climate and forecasted that an average of 95% of Ontario’s native wood­land caribou could become extirpated by 2070. The greatest extirpations were projected to occur in the northernmost regions of Ontario as well as northeastern Ontario, while regions in western Ontario were projected to have the lowest rates of extirpation. This underscores the importance of mitigating greenhouse gases as a means to protect this iconic species

The impact of adversities across the lifespan on psychological symptom profiles in late adulthood: A latent profile analysis

People commonly face adverse circumstances throughout life, which increases risk for psychiatric disorders, such as anxiety, depression, psychosis, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Adversities may occur during different periods in life. Especially adversity during early periods has been suggested to put individuals at risk for adverse mental health outcomes. Here, we investigated whether timing of adversity during the prenatal period, childhood, or mid-to-late adulthood differentially impacted classification into late adulthood symptom profiles. We performed sex-stratified Latent Profile Analysis to identify latent profiles regarding anxious, depressive, psychotic, and PTSD symptoms in n = 568 Dutch famine birth cohort members (n = 294 women, n = 274 men, mean age(SD) = 72.9(0.8)). Cross-sectional late adulthood symptomatology, childhood traumatic maltreatment, and adulthood trauma were based on self-report questionnaires. Prenatal adversity was considered present when individuals were prenatally exposed to the 1944-45 Dutch famine. In both men and women we identified one anxious/depressive profile and three profiles with approximately equal severity of all symptom types within each profile, yet differentiating in overall severity (low, mild, high) between profiles. We additionally found a PTSD symptom profile in women. In men, logistic regression models showed significant associations between prenatal, childhood and adulthood adversity, and profile classification, with differential effects depending on timing and most profound effects of child maltreatment. In women, childhood and adulthood adversity significantly increased classification probability into almost all profiles, with no significant effect of prenatal adversity. These findings support a time-dependent and sex-specific impact of adversity during different periods across the lifespan on psychological health, with consequences into late adulthood