Adaptive decision-making under conditions of uncertainty: the case of farming in the Volta delta, Ghana

Farming in Ghana’s Volta delta is increasingly affected by variability in rainfall conditions and changes in land-use patterns. Under such socio-ecological conditions, little is known about farmers’ decision-making in response to uncertainties in uncertain rainfall conditions. To fill this gap and add to the literature on adaptive decision-making, we addressed the central question: what are the existing patterns of farming decision-making under uncertain rainfall conditions, and which decision-making strategies are adaptive? We developed an adaptive decision-making framework to investigate the behavior of farmers under variable rainfall conditions in Ghana’s Volta delta in the Ada East District. We conducted 5 interviews with agricultural extension agents, 44 in-depth interviews and 4 focus group discussion with farmers. Subsequently, we interviewed a sub-selection of 32 farmers. Findings of the study shows that farmers carry out different decision-making patterns in response to the variable rainfall conditions. We distinguished six strategies: three based on flexibility and three based on robustness. Flexible adaptive decision-making strategies are switching dates for sowing seeds through wait-and-see or delay strategy, muddling through the farming season with the application of various options and alternative irrigation strategies. Robust adaptive decision-making strategies are portfolio strategy of transplanting seedlings in batches, selection of robust (hardy) crops, and intercropping or diversification. Based on how farmers select strategies in response to uncertainty in rainfall conditions, we argue that some decision-making strategies are more adaptive than others. Findings of this study are relevant for the design and implementation of climate related agricultural projects.</p

Rainfall and dry spell occurrence in Ghana : trends and seasonal predictions with a dynamical and a statistical model

Improved information on the distribution of seasonal rainfall is important for crop production in Ghana. The predictability of key agro-meteorological indices, namely, seasonal rainfall, maximum dry spell length (MDSL) and dry spell frequency (DSF) was investigated across Ghana (with an interest on the coastal savannah agro-ecological zone). These three variables are relevant for local agricultural water management. A dynamical model (i.e. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4 seasonal forecasts) and a statistical model (i.e. response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) were used and analysed using correlation and other discrimination skill metrics. ECMWF-System 4 was bias-corrected and verified with 14 local stations’ observations. Results show that differences in variability and skills of the agro-meteorological indices are small between agro-ecological zones as compared to the differences between stations. The dynamic model System 4 explains up to 31% of the variability of the MDSL and seasonal rainfall indices. Coastal savannah exhibits the highest level of discrimination skills. However, these skills are generally higher for the below and above normal MDSL and seasonal rainfall categories at lead time 0. Similarity in skills for the agro-meteorological indices over the same zones and stations is found both for the dynamical and statistical models. Although System 4 performs slightly better than the statistical model, especially, for dry spell length and seasonal rainfall. For dry spell frequency and longer lead time dry spell length, the statistical model tends to perform better. These results suggest that the agro-meteorological indices derived from System 4′ updated versions, corrected with local observations, together with the response to SST information, can potentially support decision-making of local smallholder farmers in Ghana.</p

Integration of knowledge in river restoration

River engineeringRiver habitat management and restoratio

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report

Transboundary governance and the problem of scale for the interpretation of the European Water Framework Directive at the Dutch-German border

River Basin Management (RBM) requires cooperation within a catchment area of all relevant stakeholders. When such a catchment crosses national boundaries, the complexity of this cooperation process increases dramatically. This originates from cultural, political and institutional differences. These processes are analysed for the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive(WFD) along the Dutch-German boundary, particularly the river basin district Delta Rhine, in which the Netherlands is collaborating with the German States North-Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. From the perspective of governance it is shown that the difficulty lies in its multi-level, multi-actor and multi-sectoral dimensions. Each level has its own specific problems and therefore needs its own specific approach and, at the same time, an overall view is needed to arrive at integrated results. Detailed descriptions are given of observed differences and similarities between the countries. It is concluded that transboundary governance is not an easy task, but that it is a real possibility for making joint agreements on a catchment scale

Social Learning in Wetland development

About the book: Together with its companion Volume 190 Wetlands and Natural Resource Management, this volume gives a broad and well-integrated overview of recent major scientific results in wetland science and their applications in natural resource management issues. After an introduction into the field, 12 chapters contributed by internationally known experts summarize the state of the art on a particular subject. They are divided into the following three sections: • Functioning of Plants and Animals in Wetlands • Conservation and Management of Wetlands • Wetland Restoration and Creation

Shaping conditions for entrepreneurship in climate change adaptation: A case study of an emerging governance arrangement in the Netherlands

Planning and implementation of regional climate change adaptation requires new, integrated governance arrangements that often involve public and private actors. Although entrepreneurship is widely considered an important part of such arrangements, little is known about the conditions that enable it, and its actual role is under-researched. Through an in-depth case study of an ecosystem-based adaptation project in the Netherlands, we have analyzed how the variegated actors in a governance network shape six conditions for entrepreneurial success, established in the entrepreneurship literature. Through a framing analysis, we found that all six conditions, i.e., prior career experience, altruistic motivations, financial motives, social networks, financial capital availability, and policies and regulations, were the object of constant negotiations. Their salience varied during the project as a result of variegated framing practices. In the early stages, issue, identity, and relationship frames were used to create a network of people with a range of relevant experience, connected by altruistic motivations. However, as the project progressed, distrust frames and different spatial-and temporal-scale frames created tensions between public and private actors. Accordingly, process frames, financial motivations, and capital availability became increasingly salient, reflecting the need to consolidate rules, roles, and responsibilities. The findings suggest that approaches to climate change adaptation imply ongoing struggles over the conditions that enable entrepreneurial success. We thereby add an important new dimension to the study of adaptation governance.</p

Information systems and actionable knowledge creation in rice-farming systems in Northern Ghana

<p>Rice farmers in the Kumbungu District in Northern Ghana interact with information systems. Of interest here is the degree to which knowledge derived from such interaction is actionable. The paper addresses the overall question: what information systems are currently providing agricultural information to rice farmers, and to what extent does this result in actionable knowledge creation? Findings revealed that Farmer-to-Farmer systems contribute most to actionable knowledge creation. We conclude that systems integration and local actor participation are essential for actionable knowledge creation in information systems.</p

Information systems and actionable knowledge creation in rice-farming systems in Northern Ghana

Rice farmers in the Kumbungu District in Northern Ghana interact with information systems. Of interest here is the degree to which knowledge derived from such interaction is actionable. The paper addresses the overall question: what information systems are currently providing agricultural information to rice farmers, and to what extent does this result in actionable knowledge creation? Findings revealed that Farmer-to-Farmer systems contribute most to actionable knowledge creation. We conclude that systems integration and local actor participation are essential for actionable knowledge creation in information systems.</p