Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics

Borneo’s diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition1, 2, 3, 4 and influencing regional climate processes5, 6. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires2, 7, 8, 9, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape10 has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions11. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation

Stable oxygen isotopes in Romanian oak tree rings record summer droughts and associated large-scale circulation patterns over Europe

We present the first annual oxygen isotope record (1900 – 2016) from the latewood (LW) cellulose of oak trees (Quercus robur) from NW Romania. As expected, the results correlate negatively with summer relative humidity, sunshine duration and precipitation and positively with summer maximum temperature. Spatial correlation analysis reveals a clear signal reflecting drought conditions at a European scale. Interannual variability is influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation and by surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. There is considerable potential to produce long and well-replicated oak tree ring stable isotope chronologies in Romania which would allow reconstructions of both regional drought and large-scale circulation variability over southern and central Europe