Predicted Public Health and Economic Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination with Variable Duration of Protection for Adults ≥60 Years in Belgium

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in older adults. This study used a static, cohort-based decision-tree model to estimate the public health and economic impact of vaccination against RSV in Belgians aged ≥60 years compared with no vaccination for different vaccine duration of protection profiles from a healthcare payer perspective. Three vaccine protection durations were compared (1, 3, and 5 years), and several sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Results showed that an RSV vaccine with a 3-year duration of protection would prevent 154,728 symptomatic RSV-ARI cases, 3688 hospitalizations, and 502 deaths over three years compared to no vaccination in older adults and would save EUR 35,982,857 in direct medical costs in Belgium. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one RSV-ARI case was 11 for the 3-year duration profile, while it was 28 and 8 for the 1- and 5-year vaccine duration profiles, respectively. The model was generally robust in sensitivity analyses varying key input values. This study suggested that vaccination could substantially decrease the public health and economic burden of RSV in adults ≥60 years in Belgium, with benefits increasing with a longer duration of vaccine protection.</p

Predicting the relative impacts of maternal and neonatal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine target product profiles: A consensus modelling approach

AbstractBackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major viral cause of infant and childhood lower respiratory tract disease worldwide. Defining the optimal target product profile (TPP) is complicated due to a wide range of possible vaccine properties, modalities and an incomplete understanding of the mechanism of natural immunity. We report consensus population level impact projections based on two mathematical models applied to a low income setting.MethodTwo structurally distinct age-specific deterministic compartmental models reflecting uncertainty associated with the natural history of infection and the mechanism by which immunity is acquired and lost were constructed. A wide range of vaccine TPPs were explored including dosing regime and uptake, and effects in the vaccinated individual on infectiousness, susceptibility, duration of protection, disease severity and interaction with maternal antibodies and natural induced immunity. These were combined with a range of vaccine implementation strategies, targeting the highest priority age group and calibrated using hospitalization data from Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya.FindingsBoth models were able to reproduce the data. The impact predicted by the two models was qualitatively similar across the range of TPPs, although one model consistently predicted higher impact than the other. For a proposed realistic range of scenarios of TPP combinations, the models predicted up to 70% reduction in hospitalizations in children under five years old. Vaccine designs which reduced the duration and infectiousness of infection were predicted to have higher impacts. The models were sensitive to the coverage and rate of loss of vaccine protection but not to the interaction between vaccine and maternal/naturally acquired immunity.ConclusionThe results suggest that vaccine properties leading to reduced virus circulation by lessening the duration and infectiousness of infection upon challenge are of major importance in population RSV disease control. These features should be a focus for vaccine development

Twin Peaks: A/H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus Infection and Vaccination in Norway, 2009-2010.

BACKGROUND:Vaccination campaigns against A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus (A/H1N1p) began in autumn 2009 in Europe, after the declaration of the pandemic at a global level. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of individuals vaccinated against A/H1N1p in Norway who were already infected (asymptomatically or symptomatically) by A/H1N1p before vaccination, using a mathematical model. METHODS:A dynamic, mechanistic, mathematical model of A/H1N1p transmission was developed for the Norwegian population. The model parameters were estimated by calibrating the model-projected number of symptomatic A/H1N1p cases to the number of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1p cases reported to the surveillance system, accounting for potential under-reporting. It was assumed in the base case that the likelihood of vaccination was independent of infection/disease state. A sensitivity analysis explored the effects of four scenarios in which current or previous symptomatic A/H1N1p infection would influence the likelihood of being vaccinated. RESULTS:The number of model-projected symptomatic A/H1N1p cases by week during the epidemic, accounting for under-reporting and timing, closely matched that of the laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1p cases reported to the surveillance system. The model-projected incidence of symptomatic A/H1N1p infection was 27% overall, 55% in people <10 years old and 41% in people 10-20 years old. The model-projected percentage of individuals vaccinated against A/H1N1p who were already infected with A/H1N1p before being vaccinated was 56% overall, 62% in people <10 years old and 66% in people 10-20 years old. The results were sensitive to assumptions about the independence of vaccination and infection; however, even when current or previous symptomatic A/H1N1p infection was assumed to reduce the likelihood of vaccination, the estimated percentage of individuals who were infected before vaccination remained at least 32% in all age groups. CONCLUSION:This analysis suggests that over half the people vaccinated against A/H1N1p in Norway during the 2009 pandemic may already have been infected by A/H1N1p before being vaccinated

Number of symptomatic A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza cases projected by the model compared with the observed number of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza cases.

<p>(A) all ages; (B) age 0–<10 years; (C) age 10–<20 years; (D) age 20–<30 years; (E) age 30–<50 years (pooled); (F) age 50+ years. Black: Model-projected cases scaled down to account for age-specific under-reporting factors. Red: Observed laboratory-confirmed cases reported to the surveillance system. Week number refers to 2009, and the first four weeks of 2010 are designated as weeks 54–57.</p

Etude de quelques mod(les cosmologiques de type Friedman - Le- ma]tre

SIGLEBSE B223822S / UCL - Université Catholique de LouvainBEBelgiu

Model parameters estimated by calibration.

<p>Model parameters estimated by calibration.</p

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico

Background: Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. Methods: An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. Results: The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. Conclusion: This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates without any substantial decrease in the incidence rates of symptomatic HAV infections

Temporal association between the A/H1N1 2009 influenza virus pandemic and vaccination programme in Norway.

<p>(A) Number of laboratory-confirmed cases of A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus reported through the surveillance system and number of A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus vaccinees divided by 100, by week of 2009–2010. (B) Cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed cases of A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus reported through the surveillance system and cumulative number of A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus vaccinees divided by 100. The first four weeks of 2010 are designated as weeks 54–57.</p