Distributional inference

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is so attractive and useful, however, that it should be pursued. Our approach is In line with Walds theory of statistical decision functions and with Lehmann's books about hypothesis testing and point estimation: loss functions are defined, risk functions are studied, unbiasedness and equivariance restrictions are made, etc. A central theme is that the loss function should be 'proper'. This fundamental concept has been explored by meteorologists, psychometrists, Bayesian statisticians, and others. The paper should be regarded as an attempt to reconcile various schools of statisticians. By accepting what we regard 88 good and useful in the various approaches we are trying to develop a nondogmatic approach

In vitro susceptibility of six isolates of equine herpesvirus 1 to acyclovir, ganciclovir, cidofovir, adefovir, PMEDAP and foscarnet

International audienc

Associations between pre-pregnancy psychosocial risk factors and infant outcomes: a population-based cohort study in England

BACKGROUND: Existing studies evaluating the association between maternal risk factors and specific infant outcomes such as birthweight, injury admissions, and mortality have mostly focused on single risk factors. We aimed to identify routinely recorded psychosocial characteristics of pregnant women most at risk of adverse infant outcomes to inform targeting of early intervention. METHODS: We created a cohort using administrative hospital data (Hospital Episode Statistics) for all births to mothers aged 15-44 years in England, UK, who gave birth on or after April 1, 2010, and who were discharged before or on March 31, 2015. We used generalised linear models to evaluate associations between psychosocial risk factors recorded in hospital records in the 2 years before the 20th week of pregnancy (ie, teenage motherhood, deprivation, pre-pregnancy hospital admissions for mental health or behavioural conditions, and pre-pregnancy hospital admissions for adversity, including drug or alcohol abuse, violence, and self-harm) and infant outcomes (ie, birthweight, unplanned admission for injury, or death from any cause, within 12 months from postnatal discharge). FINDINGS: Of 2 520 501 births initially assessed, 2 137 103 were eligible and were included in the birth outcome analysis. Among the eligible births, 93 279 (4·4%) were births to teenage mothers (age <20 years), 168 186 (7·9%) were births to previous teenage mothers, 51 312 (2·4%) were births to mothers who had a history of hospital admissions for mental health or behavioural conditions, 58 107 (2·7%) were births to mothers who had a history of hospital admissions for adversity, and 580 631 (27·2%) were births to mothers living in areas of high deprivation. 1 377 706 (64·5%) of births were to mothers with none of the above risk factors. Infants born to mothers with any of these risk factors had poorer outcomes than those born to mothers without these risk factors. Those born to mothers with a history of mental health or behavioural conditions were 124 g lighter (95% CI 114-134 g) than those born to mothers without these conditions. For teenage mothers compared with older mothers, 3·6% (95% CI 3·3-3·9%) more infants had an unplanned admission for injury, and there were 10·2 (95% CI 7·5-12·9) more deaths per 10 000 infants. INTERPRETATION: Health-care services should respond proactively to pre-pregnancy psychosocial risk factors. Our study demonstrates a need for effective interventions before, during, and after pregnancy to reduce the downstream burden on health services and prevent long-term adverse effects for children. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Identifying patients at risk of emergency admission for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients whose colorectal cancer is treated after an emergency admission tend to have late-stage cancer and a poor prognosis. We identified risk factors for an emergency admission by linking data from the National Bowel Cancer Audit (NBCA) and the English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), an administrative database of all admissions to English National Health Service hospitals, which includes data on mode of admission. METHODS: We identified all adults included in the NBCA with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer, excluding cancer of the appendix, between August 2007 and July 2011 whose record could be linked to HES. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for an emergency admission for colorectal cancer. All risk factors were adjusted for cancer site and calendar year. RESULTS: 97,909 adults were identified with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer and 82,777 patients could be linked to HES. Patients who were older, female, of a non-white ethnic background, and more socioeconomically deprived, and those with dementia or cardiac, neurologic and liver disease had an increased risk of presenting as an emergency admission. The strongest risk factors were age (90 compared with 70 years: OR 2.99, 95% CI 2.84 to 3.15), dementia (OR 2.46, 2.18 to 2.79), and liver disease (OR 1.87, 1.69 to 2.08). CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies risk factors that may impair health-seeking behaviour and access to healthcare. An earlier recognition of symptoms in patients with these risk factors may contribute to better outcomes

Heritability of aggression following social evaluation in middle childhood: An fMRI study.

Middle childhood marks an important phase for developing and maintaining social relations. At the same time, this phase is marked by a gap in our knowledge of the genetic and environmental influences on brain responses to social feedback and their relation to behavioral aggression. In a large developmental twin sample (509 7- to 9-year-olds), the heritability and neural underpinnings of behavioral aggression following social evaluation were investigated, using the Social Network Aggression Task (SNAT). Participants viewed pictures of peers that gave positive, neutral, or negative feedback to the participant’s profile. Next, participants could blast a loud noise toward the peer as an index of aggression. Genetic modeling revealed that aggression following negative feedback was influenced by both genetics and environmental (shared as well as unique environment). On a neural level (n 5 385), the anterior insula and anterior cingulate cortex gyrus (ACCg) responded to both positive and negative feedback, suggesting they signal for social salience cues. The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) were specifically activated during negative feedback, whereas positive feedback resulted in increased activation in caudate, supplementary motor cortex (SMA), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Decreased SMA and DLPFC activation during negative feedback was associated with more aggressive behavior aft

Magneto-photoluminescence spectroscopy of single InAs/AlAs quantum dots

We present non-resonant, polarization-resolved magneto-photoluminescence measurements up to 12 T on single InAs/AlAs quantum dots. We observe typical g-factors between 1 and 2, very low diamagnetic shifts due to strong exciton localization and low-energy sidebands, which are attributed to the piezoelectric exciton-acoustic phonon interaction.Spanish Ministry of Education/MAT2008- 01555/NANSpanish Ministry of Education/Consolider CSD 2006-19Community of Madrid CAMS-0505-ESP-0200Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/Nanoinpho-QD TEC2008-06756-C03-0