Can we keep up with the demand? Emerging trends in global rice consumption

Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,

The Role of Exchange Rates and Domestic Policies on Global Rice Food Security

Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,

Estimating food demand and the impact of market shocks on food expenditures: The case for the Philippines and missing price data

This study uses the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate food demand among Filipino households. Our study uses the recently released 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey and the Stone-Lewbel price index in the absence of price data on food groups. Results show that demand for rice with respect to prices and expenditures is relatively inelastic compared with that for other food groups. The income elasticity for rice is inelastic (0.26), slightly higher than the income elasticity for sugar. Demand for rice is generally less elastic for higher-income Filipinos and families residing in urban areas than for their counterparts. The findings reveal that, in the short term, a 15 per cent decrease in income or a 20 per cent increase in rice prices induces families to spend more of their income on rice at the expense of other cereals, meat, fish, and other food groups. Income and rice price shocks have differential impacts on low-income and high-income Filipino families. Policymakers may be able to moderate the food price impacts of market shocks through targeted interventions and programs that improve the accessibility to and availability of quality agri-fishery products

Inflation and Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting in Asia: Time-Series and Cross-Country Analysis

Controlling inflation is important. The 2008-2009 global financial crisis created new concerns about the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting. A key issue for many central banks in recent years has been that inflation is uncomfortably too low rather than too high. This thesis examines the impact of inflation targeting on the behaviour of inflation, output growth and real exchange rates for eight Asian countries using time-series and panel data from 1987 to 2013. The econometric methodologies employed include panel GARCH, quantile unit root and Markov regime-switching testing. Panel GARCH results indicate that inflation targeting is more credible in lowering the inflation level rather than its volatility. The quantile unit root testing results indicate that the credibility of inflation targeting and alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea. Results also suggest that targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than non-targeting countries, based on a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Results generally indicate the presence of mean-reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, results indicate varied speed of adjustment process across quantiles. The regime-switching results indicate that inflation and output growth are generally characterized by partial stationarity, while there is mostly varied stationarity in real exchange rates. Results also indicate that inflation targeting significantly affects the inferred probabilities of remaining in the stationary regime, mainly for output growth and real exchange rates and for inflation in some cases. Results further indicate that the variance of inflation and output growth is lower during the inflation targeting period. Furthermore, results indicate that there is a significant difference between targeting and non-targeting countries in terms of the speed of adjustment of macroeconomic variables towards the equilibrium level and the behaviour of inferred probabilities of remaining in the stationary regime

Implications of lifting the rice subsidy on consumption and food security in India

This paper examines the outcomes of removing the rice subsidies for the poor, particularly those below the poverty line (BPL) using the IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM), a partial equilibrium structural econometric simulation model. Simulation results show that without BPL rice subsidy, rice consumption per capita and caloric intake would decrease resulting in an increasing number hungry of people in India