Interpreting Time Series Transformer Models and Sensitivity Analysis of Population Age Groups to COVID-19 Infections

Interpreting deep learning time series models is crucial in understanding the model's behavior and learning patterns from raw data for real-time decision-making. However, the complexity inherent in transformer-based time series models poses challenges in explaining the impact of individual features on predictions. In this study, we leverage recent local interpretation methods to interpret state-of-the-art time series models. To use real-world datasets, we collected three years of daily case data for 3,142 US counties. Firstly, we compare six transformer-based models and choose the best prediction model for COVID-19 infection. Using 13 input features from the last two weeks, we can predict the cases for the next two weeks. Secondly, we present an innovative way to evaluate the prediction sensitivity to 8 population age groups over highly dynamic multivariate infection data. Thirdly, we compare our proposed perturbation-based interpretation method with related work, including a total of eight local interpretation methods. Finally, we apply our framework to traffic and electricity datasets, demonstrating that our approach is generic and can be applied to other time-series domains

Osteoblast differentiation of equine induced pluripotent stem cells.

Bone fractures occur in horses following traumatic and non-traumatic (bone overloading) events. They can be difficult to treat due to the need for the horse to bear weight on all legs during the healing period. Regenerative medicine to improve fracture union and recovery could significantly improve horse welfare. Equine induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) have previously been derived. Here we show that equine iPSCs cultured for 21 days in osteogenic induction media on an OsteoAssay surface upregulate the expression of osteoblast associated genes and proteins, including COL1A1, SPARC, SPP1, IBSP, RUNX2 and BGALP We also demonstrate that iPSC-osteoblasts are able to produce a mineralised matrix with both calcium and hydroxyapatite deposition. Alkaline phosphatase activity is also significantly increased during osteoblast differentiation. Although the genetic background of the iPSC donor animal affects the level of differentiation observed after 21 days of differentiation, less variation between lines of iPSCs derived from the same horse was observed. The successful, direct, differentiation of equine iPSCs into osteoblasts may provide a source of cells for future regenerative medicine strategies to improve fracture repair in horses undergoing surgery. iPSC-derived osteoblasts will also provide a potential tool to study equine bone development and disease.Anne Duchess of Cambridge Charitable Trust, Paul Mellon Foundation, Cambridge Turs

The Prevalence of Cardio-Metabolic Conditions (Diabetes, Hypertension, and Obesity) Before and During COVID-19 and Association with Health and Sociodemographic Factors

Cardiometabolic conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes, including increased rates of hospitalization and deaths in patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19. However, little to no evidence is known currently on the cardiometabolic conditions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study utilizes a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States (U.S.) to estimate the prevalence of cardiometabolic conditions, focusing on diabetes, hypertension, and obesity, and determine their prevalence and absolute and relative rates before and during COVID-19 pandemic declaration. Furthermore, the study aims to determine the association between these cardiometabolic conditions and physical activity, tobacco use, anxiety/depression, and sociodemographic characteristics among U.S. adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the 2019 (N = 5359) and 2020 (N = 3830) Health Information National Trends Surveys (HINTS) on adults were utilized. Dependent variable was cardiometabolic conditions and the main explanatory variable was response before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted weighted descriptive and multivariable logistic regression controlling for confounders such as age, sex, and intensity of physical activity. While there was a slight increase in the prevalence of cardiometabolic conditions during the pandemic (56.09%) compared to before (54.96%), there was only a slight increase in the prevalence of diabetes (18.10% vs 17.28%) and obesity (34.68% vs 34.18%) and a slight decrease in the prevalence of hypertension (36.38% vs 36.36%). Results showed an increase in the prevalence of cardiometabolic conditions among former smokers (67.91% vs 63.86%), and current cigarette smokers (59.39% vs 55.43%), current e-cigarette users (37.24% vs 28.66%), individuals with mild (59.62% vs 55.43%), or moderate (61.98% vs 57.83%) anxiety/depression, sexual minority (53.50% vs 51.12%) and heterosexual (56.45% vs 54.96%) individuals during the pandemic, compared to before the pandemic. Additionally, people with mild anxiety/depression had higher odds of cardiometabolic conditions during the pandemic (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.01, 2.38), compared to before (AOR = 1.52, 95% CI =1.06, 2.19), relative to those without anxiety/depression. Similarly, former smokers had higher odds of cardiometabolic outcomes before and during the pandemic (AOR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.87 vs AOR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.10, 2.25), when compared to never smokers. Odds were lower for current e-cigarette users (AOR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.85) compared to never e-cigarette users before the pandemic. There were no significant differences in odds of cardiometabolic conditions between sexual minorities and heterosexual individuals before and during the pandemic. In conclusion, increased risk for adverse cardiometabolic conditions was higher for individuals with cigarette use and mental health diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting the critical need for smoking cessation and programs to support behavioral health

Fenomena El Niño dan impak terhadap hasil tangkapan ikan: kajian kes di Sabah, Malaysia

Kesan fenomena El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) berbeza-beza bergantung kepada lokasi dan ia telah menyebabkan berlakunya dapatan kajian yang berbeza dalam bidang perikanan. Kajian ini bertujuan mengkaji fenomena El Nino dan impak terhadap taburan kepekatan klorofil di perairan Pantai Barat Sabah, dan pengaruhnya terhadap tangkapan ikan pada tahun 2015/2016. Kajian ini menggunakan maklumat data daripada satelit penderiaan jauh MODIS bagi tahun 2012 hingga tahun 2016 bagi memetakan taburan kepekatan kandungan klorofill. Kajian ini juga menggunakan maklumat data tangkapan ikan yang diperoleh daripada Jabatan Perikanan Negeri Sabah dan maklumat data Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Hasil kajian mendapati penurunan hasil tangkapan ikan semasa fenomena El Niño pada tahun 2015/2016.Hasil kajian mendapati fenomena El Niño mempengaruhi hasil tangkapan ikan dan kandungan klorofil yang tentunya memberi kesan terhadap jumlah pendapatan nelayan dan industri yang berikatan

Impact Deforestation on Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study Highland Kundasang, Sabah

In recent decades, extensive deforestation in tropical regions has dynamically reshaped forests and land cover. Driven by demands for intensified agriculture, rural settlement expansion, and urban growth, this transformation underscores the need for vigilant monitoring of vegetation and forest cover to comprehend global and local environmental shifts. This study focuses on the intricate interplay between deforestation and its impact on land surface temperature (LST) within Sabah's Kundasang highland. Analyzing years 1990, 2009, and 2021, the study employs Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite data spanning three decades to decipher forest cover dynamics. Utilizing remote sensing techniques, it unveils the evolving relationship between deforestation, forest cover, and LST fluctuations, validated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) insights from 1990 to 2021. Motivated by the scarcity of research on tropical deforestation's LST impact, the study's core aim is to establish a robust link between forest loss extent and ensuing thermal changes. The findings highlight a tangible influence of reduced vegetation on rising surface temperatures, necessitating a precise understanding of deforested areas and their thermal responses. Revealing a striking scenario, around 76% of Kundasang highland's forest cover transformed into agriculture and urban zones over 27 years. The study further uncovers a clear inverse relationship between LST and forest area in square kilometers, as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). These findings provide valuable guidance for forest management, identifying vulnerable areas, while also empowering local governance to shape sustainable land management strategies

EQIP\u27s First Year: A Step Closer to Higher Quality in Surgical Education.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the first year of the Educational Quality Improvement Program (EQIP) DESIGN: The Educational Quality Improvement Program (EQIP) was formed by the Association of Program Directors in Surgery (APDS) in 2018 as a continuous educational quality improvement program. Over 18 months, thirteen discrete goals for the establishment of EQIP were refined and executed through a collaborative effort involving leaders in surgical education. Alpha and beta pilots were conducted to refine the data queries and collection processes. A highly-secure, doubly-deidentified database was created for the ingestion of resident and program data. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 36 surgical training programs with 1264 trainees and 1500 faculty members were included in the dataset. 51,516 ERAS applications to programs were also included. Uni- and multi-variable analysis was then conducted. RESULTS: EQIP was successfully deployed within the timeline described in 2020. Data from the ACGME, ABS, and ERAS were merged with manually entered data by programs and successfully ingested into the EQIP database. Interactive dashboards have been constructed for use by programs to compare to the national cohort. Risk-adjusted multivariable analysis suggests that increased time in a technical skills lab was associated with increased success on the ABS\u27s Qualifying Examination, alone. Increased time in a technical skills lab and the presence of a formal teaching curriculum were associated with increased success on both the ABS\u27s Qualifying and Certifying Examination. Program type may be of some consequence in predicting success on the Qualifying Examination. CONCLUSIONS: The APDS has proved the concept that a highly secure database for the purpose of continuous risk-adjusted quality improvement in surgical education can be successfully deployed. EQIP will continue to improve and hopes to include an increasing number of programs as the barriers to participation are overcome

Impaired perception of facial motion in autism spectrum disorder

Copyright: © 2014 O’Brien et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Facial motion is a special type of biological motion that transmits cues for socio-emotional communication and enables the discrimination of properties such as gender and identity. We used animated average faces to examine the ability of adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) to perceive facial motion. Participants completed increasingly difficult tasks involving the discrimination of (1) sequences of facial motion, (2) the identity of individuals based on their facial motion and (3) the gender of individuals. Stimuli were presented in both upright and upside-down orientations to test for the difference in inversion effects often found when comparing ASD with controls in face perception. The ASD group’s performance was impaired relative to the control group in all three tasks and unlike the control group, the individuals with ASD failed to show an inversion effect. These results point to a deficit in facial biological motion processing in people with autism, which we suggest is linked to deficits in lower level motion processing we have previously reported

Continuous selections of Lipschitz extensions in metric spaces

This paper deals with the study of parameter dependence of extensions of Lipschitz mappings from the point of view of continuity. We show that if assuming appropriate curvature bounds for the spaces, the multivalued extension operators that assign to every nonexpansive (resp. Lipschitz) mapping all its nonexpansive extensions (resp. Lipschitz extensions with the same Lipschitz constant) are lower semi-continuous and admit continuous selections. Moreover, we prove that Lipschitz mappings can be extended continuously even when imposing the condition that the image of the extension belongs to the closure of the convex hull of the image of the original mapping. When the target space is hyperconvex one can obtain in fact nonexpansivity.Dirección General de Enseñanza SuperiorJunta de AndalucíaRomanian Ministry of Educatio

Left gaze bias in humans, rhesus monkeys and domestic dogs

While viewing faces, human adults often demonstrate a natural gaze bias towards the left visual field, that is, the right side of the viewee’s face is often inspected first and for longer periods. Using a preferential looking paradigm, we demonstrate that this bias is neither uniquely human nor limited to primates, and provide evidence to help elucidate its biological function within a broader social cognitive framework. We observed that 6-month-old infants showed a wider tendency for left gaze preference towards objects and faces of different species and orientation, while in adults the bias appears only towards upright human faces. Rhesus monkeys showed a left gaze bias towards upright human and monkey faces, but not towards inverted faces. Domestic dogs, however, only demonstrated a left gaze bias towards human faces, but not towards monkey or dog faces, nor to inanimate object images. Our findings suggest that face- and species-sensitive gaze asymmetry is more widespread in the animal kingdom than previously recognised, is not constrained by attentional or scanning bias, and could be shaped by experience to develop adaptive behavioural significance

Burning in Banksia Woodlands: How Does the Fire-Free Period Influence Reptile Communities?

Fire is an important management tool for both hazard reduction burning and maintenance of biodiversity. The impact of time since last fire on fauna is an important factor to understand as land managers often aim for prescribed burning regimes with specific fire-free intervals. However, our current understanding of the impact of time since last fire on fauna is largely unknown and likely dependent on vegetation type. We examined the responses of reptiles to fire age in banksia woodlands, and the interspersed melaleuca damplands among them, north of Perth, Western Australia, where the current prescribed burning regime is targeting a fire-free period of 8–12 years. The response of reptiles to fire was dependent on vegetation type. Reptiles were generally more abundant (e.g. Lerista elegans and Ctenophorus adelaidensis) and specious in banksia sites. Several species (e.g. Menetia greyii, Cryptoblepharus buchananii) preferred long unburnt melaleuca sites (>16 years since last fire, YSLF) compared to recently burnt sites (<12 YSLF). Several of the small elapids (e.g. the WA priority listed species Neelaps calonotus) were only detected in older-aged banksia sites (>16 YSLF). The terrestrial dragon C. adelaidensis and the skink Morethia obscura displayed a strong response to fire in banksia woodlands only. Highest abundances of the dragon were detected in the recently burnt (<7 YSLF) and long unburnt (>35 YSLF) banksia woodlands, while the skink was more abundant in older sites. Habitats from a range of fire ages are required to support the reptiles we detected, especially the longer unburnt (>16 YSLF) melaleuca habitat. Current burning prescriptions are reducing the availability of these older habitats