Collusion Between Mainstream Parties and Anti-Establishment Parties’ Success

It is a common wisdom that outsider parties may take advantage of mainstream parties colluding with each other, either by participating in the same government coalition or significantly reducing their ideological distance. This reinforces populist or anti-establishment leaders claim to represent the only real alternative To traditional politics. The same argument can be presented in spatial terms: the more mainstream parties get closer to each other, the more political space is available for outsider challengers. Although very diffused, such argument has never been empirically tested. This is what we do in this paper. We have assembled an original dataset including governmental coalitions in 17 Western European countries since 1980. In order to test the ‘collusion hypothesis’, we use coalitional formulas as an independent variable to explain the electoral success of outsider parties. Our results show that there is no direct relation between grand coalition formulas and the rise of populist anti-establishment parties

Populism Put to the Test: The 2019 European Elections in Italy

The European (and local) elections of 2019 will be an important test for Italy, one year after the birth of an unprecedented government characterized by the strong populist stance of both its coalition partners, the Five Star Movement and the Lega, and a growing polarization in party positions and voters’ views on a number of political issues. This article summarizes the electoral results and interprets them on a short- and medium-term basis. In the short term the framework is that of the second-order elections, based on government popularity, and the positioning of parties on the main issues during the electoral campaign. In the medium term, we analyse the most salient lines of party competition over the last years (including the 2019 elections as a point of arrival) and the varying degrees of polarization along those lines, in search of explanations for the emergence and success of populist and extreme actors. In particular, we investigate whether and to what extent the Italian party system can be best understood along the lines of a new transnational cleavage separating pro-European and Eurosceptic parties, and to what extent such emerging cleavage is compatible with the traditional one, based on preferences over economic redistribution

Does Collusion between Mainstream Parties Foster Populist Parties’ Electoral Results?

It is a common wisdom that outsider parties may take advantage of mainstream parties colluding with each other, either by participating in the same government coalition or significantly reducing their ideological distance. This reinforces populist or anti-establishment leaders claim to represent the only real alternative to traditional politics. The same argument can be presented in spatial terms: the more mainstream parties get closer to each other, the more political space is available for outsider challengers. Although very diffused, such argument has never (??) been empirically tested. This is what we do in this paper. We have assembled an original dataset including governmental coalitions in 17 Western European countries since 1980. In order to test the ‘collusion hypothesis’, we use coalitional formulas as an independent variable to explain the electoral success of outsider parties. Our results show that there is no direct relation between grand coalition formulas and the rise of populist anti-establishment parties

Populism Put to the Polarisation Test: The 2019-20 Election Cycle in Italy

One year after the birth of an unprecedented government characterised by the strong populist stance of both coalition partners (M5S and the Lega) and amid a growing polarisation in party positions on a number of political issues, the European and regional elections of 2019\u201320 marked an important test for Italy. After presenting the results of the 2019\u201320 election cycle, the article investigates the most salient lines of party competition and the varying degrees of polarisation. Our analysis shows two kinds of polarisation: the first being the intra-coalitional polarisation which characterised the first Conte government; while the second, affecting the party system as a whole, is driven by the electoral rise of far-right parties

An inquiry into urban peripheries, socio-economic distress and vote. The cases of Bologna, Florence and Rome

The weakening of traditional parties and of their territorial rooting which has occurred over the last decades has brought back the scholarly interest on the local dynamics, namely, on the social and political transformations involving local areas. An increasing number of scholars has therefore focused on the \uabperipheries\ubb, those urban areas that are traditionally associated with a high level of socio-economic distress, wherein inhabitants feel themselves as economically disadvantaged, socially marginalized and politically excluded. This paper is part of such research strand by investigating the variation in the electoral results in three Italian cities \u2013 Bologna, Florence, and Rome \u2013 in relation to the spatial distance from the urban centre and to the socio-economic distress. More notably, the paper answers two main questions: a) are the most distant areas from the historical centre also those with a higher level of socio-economic distress? b) what kind of relationship is there between voting and socio-economic distress, and how does such relation change over the post-crisis years? To answer these questions, we consider the results of four elections (parliamentary elections 2008, 2013, 2018; European elections 2019) in the three cities investigated, which are similarly characterized by an electoral decline of the Pd (but also of the Pdl/FI) to the benefit of M5s and League (and in part also of FdI), besides being located in central Italy. By using an original dataset combining socio-economic and electoral variables at the district level, the article analyzes the variation in the electoral support for the main Italian political parties, with a particular focus on both mainstream (Pd and Pdl/FI) and antiestablishment parties (M5s and League)

Inchiesta su periferie urbane, disagio socio-economico e voto. I casi di Bologna, Firenze e Roma

The weakening of traditional parties and of their territorial rooting which has occurred over the last decades has brought back the scholarly interest on the local dynamics, namely, on the social and political transformations involving local areas. An increasing number of scholars has therefore focused on the «peripheries», those urban areas that are traditionally associated with a high level of socio-economic distress, wherein inhabitants feel themselves as economically disadvantaged, socially marginalized and politically excluded. This paper is part of such research strand by investigating the variation in the electoral results in three Italian cities – Bologna, Florence, and Rome – in relation to the spatial distance from the urban centre and to the socio-economic distress. More notably, the paper answers two main questions: a) are the most distant areas from the historical centre also those with a higher level of socio-economic distress? b) what kind of relationship is there between voting and socio-economic distress, and how does such relation change over the post-crisis years? To answer these questions, we consider the results of four elections (parliamentary elections 2008, 2013, 2018; European elections 2019) in the three cities investigated, which are similarly characterized by an electoral decline of the Pd (but also of the Pdl/FI) to the benefit of M5s and League (and in part also of FdI), besides being located in central Italy. By using an original dataset combining socio-economic and electoral variables at the district level, the article analyzes the variation in the electoral support for the main Italian political parties, with a particular focus on both mainstream (Pd and Pdl/FI) and antiestablishment parties (M5s and League)