MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN AUSTRALIA’S MACROECONOMIC DATA: AN APPLICATION OF THE LUMSDAINE AND PAPELL TEST

This paper employs all available annual time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for 10 macroeconomic variables in the Australian economy. The ADF (Augmented Dickey and Fuller) test and the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997) test are used to examine the time series properties of the data. The ADF test results provide no evidence against the unit root null hypothesis in all ten macroeconomic variables. After accounting for the two most significant structural breaks in the data impacting on both the intercept and trend, the results from the LP test indicate that the null of at least one unit root is rejected for four of the variables under investigation at the 10 per cent level or better. We also found that the dates of structural breaks in most cases point to: (a) the oil/wages shock occurring in the 1973-1975 period, (b) the 1990-1991 recession; (c) the culmination of financial deregulation and innovation in the late 1980s; and (d) the 1997 Asian crisis.Unit roots Hypothesis, structural breaks, and Australian economy

The relations between '-amenability and some special ideals

In this paper we determine '-amenability of a Banach algebraA with some certain ideals in its second dual A00. We show that foran idempotent m 2 A00, the set C m = f m : 2 Cg is a leftideal in A00 if and only if m is a '-mean. We also give some resultson the relationships between weak amenability and '-amenability ofBanach algebras

How useful is the yield spread as a predictor of growth in Australia?

© 2016, © Emerald Group Publishing Limited. Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of the yield spread for forecasting growth in the Australian economy since 1969. Design/methodology/approach – This paper applies time series analysis to evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting power of the spread-growth nexus in Australia for the period spanning from 1969 to 2014. Findings – This paper concludes that the spread serves as a useful predictor of growth in output, private dwellings, private fixed capital formation, and inventories in Australia, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Its predictive content is not sensitive to the inclusion of monetary policy variables or the switch to the inflation-targeting regime by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the early 1990s. Originality/value – This paper provides significant evidence to policy makers and market participants on the usefulness of the spread in forecasting output growth for up to eight quarters ahead

A Cross-Country Analysis of Export Prices in OECD Countries

As is the case with most small open economies, changes in Australia’s export prices are an important source of national macroeconomic disturbance largely out of its control given its choice of export bundle. This paper distinguishes the extent to which export price variation consists of global versus country-specific changes for the set of 14 OECD countries investigated. We find that sharp changes in global export prices are evidently becoming more important for many of the countries in the OECD sample over the last 25 years as compared with the previous 25 year period. The paper also finds that, by a number of different measures, whilst Australia’s export price growth has apparently become more highly associated with World export prices in recent years, it nonetheless continues to have one of the more volatile set of export prices among OECD countries

A Multi-Dimensional Ranking of Australian Economics Departments

This study uses cluster analysis to classify Australian economics departments into groups that have similar quantities of research output, measured by two publication counts, and similar quality of research output, measured by a citation count. Three groups of departments are identified and factor analysis is used to rank the groups. Whether research output is measured in total or on a per staff basis, Melbourne is in the group that ranks first, the remaining members of the ‘group of eight’ are in one or other of the top two groups, and at least 15 other departments are in the third-ranked group

Quantifying the Effect of GST on Inflation in Australia’s Capital Cities: An Intervention Analysis

This paper examines the magnitude and duration of the GST effect on inflation in Australia’s eight capital cities using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis and quarterly data spanning from 1948:4 to 2003:1. We found that GST had a significant but transitory impact on inflation only in the September quarter of 2000 when this new tax system was implemented. In this quarter inflation showed an additional increase of 2.6 per cent in Sydney (minimum effect) and 2.8 per cent in Australia as a whole, the same figure for Hobart was 3.3 per cent (maximum effect). Based on the Wald test results, we have also found some evidence that there is no significant (or substantial) difference in the average price changes among capital cities. We could not reject the null hypothesis that GST increased the CPI by 2.8 per cent across the board in various cities. These results are also consistent with previous studies/surveys. Keywords: Intervention Analysis; State and Local Taxation; Australia

A note on the rising cost of education in Australia

Human capital, or a better educated labour force, is a major determinant of economic growth and productivity. However, recent trends in the cost of education in Australia may cause growth and productivity to suffer. For example, during the period 1982-2003 inflation rose on average by 4.4 per cent per annum, whereas the cost of education grew overall on average by 7.8 per cent. This has made education a relatively expensive item among Australian households. This paper compares and contrasts the cost of education in Australia and comparable economies with the cost of other goods and services embedded in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket using the latest available quarterly data. Finally, the major determinants of the rising cost of education in Australia are examined. It is found, inter alia, that over the period 1986-2003 the increasing number of students enrolled at non-governmental primary and secondary schools and the introduction of the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) were two important determinants of the rising cost of education

Strain control of band topology and surface states in antiferromagnetic EuCd2_2As2_2

Topological semimetal antiferromagnets provide a rich source of exotic topological states which can be controlled by manipulating the orientation of the N\'eel vector, or by modulating the lattice parameters through strain. We investigate via ${ab\ initio}$ density functional theory calculations, the effects of shear strain on the bulk and surface states n two antiferromagnetic EuCd$_2$As$_2$ phases with out-of-plane and in-plane spin configurations. When magnetic moments are along the $\textit{c}$-axis, a $3\%$ longitudinal or diagonal shear strain can tune the Dirac semimetal phase to an axion insulator phase, characterized by the parity-based invariant $\eta_{4I} = 2$. For an in-plane magnetic order, the axion insulator phase remains robust under all shear strains. We further find that for both magnetic orders, the bulk gap increases and a surface gap opens on the (001) surface up to 16 meV. Because of a nonzero $\eta_{4I}$ index and gapped states on the (001) surface, hinge modes are expected to happen on the side surface states between those gapped surface states. This result can provide a valuable insight in the realization of the long-sought axion states.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Inference of financial networks using the normalised mutual information rate

In this paper we study data from financial markets using an information theory tool that we call the normalised Mutual Information Rate and show how to use it to infer the underlying network structure of interrelations in foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices of 14 countries world-wide and the European Union. We first present the mathematical method and discuss about its computational aspects, and then apply it to artificial data from chaotic dynamics and to correlated random variates. Next, we apply the method to infer the network structure of the financial data. Particularly, we study and reveal the interrelations among the various foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices in two separate networks for which we also perform an analysis to identify their structural properties. Our results show that both are small-world networks sharing similar properties but also having distinct differences in terms of assortativity. Finally, the consistent relationships depicted among the 15 economies are further supported by a discussion from the economics view point