Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

High-Frequency Dynamics of Ocean pH: A Multi-Ecosystem Comparison

The effect of Ocean Acidification (OA) on marine biota is quasi-predictable at best. While perturbation studies, in the form of incubations under elevated pCO2, reveal sensitivities and responses of individual species, one missing link in the OA story results from a chronic lack of pH data specific to a given species' natural habitat. Here, we present a compilation of continuous, high-resolution time series of upper ocean pH, collected using autonomous sensors, over a variety of ecosystems ranging from polar to tropical, open-ocean to coastal, kelp forest to coral reef. These observations reveal a continuum of month-long pH variability with standard deviations from 0.004 to 0.277 and ranges spanning 0.024 to 1.430 pH units. The nature of the observed variability was also highly site-dependent, with characteristic diel, semi-diurnal, and stochastic patterns of varying amplitudes. These biome-specific pH signatures disclose current levels of exposure to both high and low dissolved CO2, often demonstrating that resident organisms are already experiencing pH regimes that are not predicted until 2100. Our data provide a first step toward crystallizing the biophysical link between environmental history of pH exposure and physiological resilience of marine organisms to fluctuations in seawater CO2. Knowledge of this spatial and temporal variation in seawater chemistry allows us to improve the design of OA experiments: we can test organisms with a priori expectations of their tolerance guardrails, based on their natural range of exposure. Such hypothesis-testing will provide a deeper understanding of the effects of OA. Both intuitively simple to understand and powerfully informative, these and similar comparative time series can help guide management efforts to identify areas of marine habitat that can serve as refugia to acidification as well as areas that are particularly vulnerable to future ocean change

Interpersonal violence: an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.</p

Caution regarding exergames: a skill acquisition perspective

Background: The advent of technology use in physical education is upon us. But the implications of using exergames as a substitute for traditional physical education instruction for some students raise questions. Although exergames have the potential to increase energy expenditure and motivation in some children, it is less clear whether they can provide skill acquisition benefits that are similar to those found in traditional physical education.Purpose: In a previous experiment from our laboratory, we found that deliberate practice can significantly reduce the planning time required for lateral arm movements. The purpose of this study was to determine if exergames can produce a similar effect, by reducing the processing time required for children to initiate arm movements to the contralateral and ipsilateral space.Participants and setting: Thirty children (boys = 15, girls = 15), between the ages of 7 and 12 years, participated in a pre- and post-test each taking 30 min and one 30 min treatment session in a university laboratory.Research design: A repeated measures design was employed to test the effects of deliberate laterality practice on processing speed. Children were randomly assigned (n = 10) to either a Nintendo Wii tennis contralateral movement experimental group, Nintendo Wii bowling ipsilateral movement experimental group, or handheld video-game control group. Each child participated in one 30 min treatment session.Data collection: Upper extremity choice reaction time (RT) was measured through 27 goal-directed aiming movements for each arm separately, during the pre-test and post-test. The stimulus–response trials occurred in three randomly presented directions (ipsilateral, contralateral, and midline).Data analysis: A 3 (treatment group) × 2 (age group) × 2 (test) × 3 (direction) mixed design analysis of variance with repeated measures on the last two factors was used to test for significant differences, with an alpha level set at 0.05.Findings: There were no significant treatment effects on RT across all groups indicating that a short bout of exergame training was unsuccessful in improving lateral movement processing.Conclusions: Deliberate laterality practice using exergames did not improve the motor processing speed of lateral arm movements in the same manner of traditional physical education as indicated by our previous research. Explanations as to why exergames do not exhibit the same positive transfer for skill acquisition as traditional physical education instruction are discussed within this paper

Choice, habit and evolution

The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com Copyright SpringerSeveral leading mainstream economists including Gary Becker have treated habit as serially correlated behaviour resulting from deliberate choices. This approach puts choice before habit but involves assumptions of extensive memory and decision-making capacity. By contrast, earlier authors such as William James, John Dewey and Thorstein Veblen saw deliberation and choice as a contingent outcome of habits, where the latter are defined in terms of acquired dispositions rather than overt behaviour. The approach of this second group is more consistent with an evolutionary perspective and the limited computational capacities of the human brain. © Springer-Verlag 2009.Peer reviewe