792 research outputs found

    ‘Residual diversity estimates’ do not correct for sampling bias in palaeodiversity data

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    1 It is widely accepted that the fossil record suffers from various sampling biases – diversity signals through time may partly or largely reflect the rock record – and many methods have been devised to deal with this problem. One widely used method, the ‘residual diversity’ method, uses residuals from a modelled relationship between palaeodiversity and sampling (sampling-driven diversity model) as ‘corrected’ diversity estimates, but the unorthodox way in which these residuals are generated presents serious statistical problems; the response and predictor variables are decoupled through independent sorting, rendering the new bivariate relationship meaningless. 2. Here, we use simple simulations to demonstrate the detrimental consequences of independent sorting, through assessing error rates and biases in regression model coefficients. 3. Regression models based on independently sorted data result in unacceptably high rates of incorrect and systematically, directionally biased estimates, when the true parameter values are known. The large number of recent papers that used the method are likely to have produced misleading results and their implications should be reassessed. 4. We note that the ‘residuals’ approach based on the sampling-driven diversity model cannot be used to ‘correct’ for sampling bias, and instead advocate the use of phylogenetic multiple regression models that can include various confounding factors, including sampling bias, while simultaneously accounting for statistical non-independence owing to shared ancestry. Evolutionary dynamics such as speciation are inherently a phylogenetic process, and only an explicitly phylogenetic approach will correctly model this process

    Transitions between foot postures are associated with elevated rates of body size evolution in mammals

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    Terrestrial mammals have evolved various foot postures: flat-footed (plantigrady), tiptoed (digitigrady), and hooved (unguligrady) postures. Although the importance of foot posture on ecology and body size of mammalian species has been widely recognized, its evolutionary trajectory and influence on body size evolution across mammalian phylogeny remain untested. Taking a Bayesian phylogenetic approach combined with a comprehensive dataset of foot postures in 880 extant mammalian species, we investigated the evolutionary history of foot postures and rates of body size evolution, within the same posture and at transitions between postures. Our results show that the common ancestor of mammals was plantigrade, and transitions predominantly occurred only between plantigrady and digitigrady and between digitigrady and unguligrady. At the transitions between plantigrady and digitigrady and between digitigrady and unguligrady, rates of body size evolution are significantly elevated leading to the larger body masses of digitigrade species (∼1 kg) and unguligrade species (∼78 kg) compared with their respective ancestral postures [plantigrady (∼0.75 kg) and digitigrady]. Our results demonstrate the importance of foot postures on mammalian body size evolution and have implications for mammalian body size increase through time. In addition, we highlight a way forward for future studies that seek to integrate morphofunctional and macroevolutionary approaches

    Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

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    Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event

    Rapid decreases in relative testes mass among monogamous birds but not in other vertebrates

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    Larger testes produce more sperm and therefore improve reproductive success in the face of sperm competition. Adaptation to social mating systems with relatively high and low sperm competition are therefore likely to have driven changes in relative testes size in opposing directions. Here, we combine the largest vertebrate testes mass dataset ever collected with phylogenetic approaches for measuring rates of morphological evolution to provide the first quantitative evidence for how relative testes mass has changed over time. We detect explosive radiations of testes mass diversity distributed throughout the vertebrate tree of life: bursts of rapid change have been frequent during vertebrate evolutionary history. In socially monogamous birds, there have been repeated rapid reductions in relative testes mass. We see no such pattern in other monogamous vertebrates; the prevalence of monogamy in birds may have increased opportunities for investment in alternative behaviours and physiologies allowing reduced investment in expensive testes

    Phylogenetic non-independence in rates of trait evolution

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    Statistical non-independence of species’ biological traits is recognized in most traits under selection. Yet, whether or not the evolutionary rates of such biological traits are statistically non-independent remains to be tested. Here we test the hypothesis that phenotypic evolutionary rates are non-independent, i.e. contain phylogenetic signal, using empirical rates of evolution in three separate traits: body mass in mammals; beak shape in birds; and bite force in amniotes. Specifically, we test whether rates are non-independent throughout the evolutionary history of each tree. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in evolutionary rates in all three case studies. While phylogenetic signal diminishes deeper in time, this is reflective of statistical power owing to small sample and effect sizes. When effect size is large, e.g., owing to the presence of fossil tips, we detect high phylogenetic signals even in deeper time slices. Thus, we recommend that rates be treated as being non-independent throughout the evolutionary history of the group of organisms under study, and any summaries or analyses of rates through time – including associations of rates with traits – need account for the undesired effects of shared ancestry
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