A Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Thinning Corrosion Rate of Steel Heat Exchanger in Hydrodesulfurization Plants

Fuel consumption has been increasing in recent years, especially that of diesel and jet fuel. For this reason, the necessity to build new plants to reduce their sulfur content has arisen. Sometimes, just revamping existing plants is feasible, but determining which pieces of equipment are in the appropriate condition to be reused is also necessary. In order to select the equipment, it is essential to have information about the wall thickness of vessels. Sometimes, the information is limited; consequently, the application of advanced statistical techniques is needed. ,e Bayesian Data Analysis (BDA) used in this study has the goal of determining a more accurate, unobserved thinning rate distribution for existing heat exchangers, taking into consideration all the information available about the thinning rate of the heat exchangers that cool down the effluent of the hydrotreating reactors in Mexican oil refineries. ,e information obtained from BDA was compared with existing shell wall thickness obtaining favorable results

A Stochastic Model and Investigation into the Probability Distribution of the Thickness of Boride Layers Formed on Low-Carbon Steel

The stochastic nature of the thickness of boride layers formed on carbon steel is described in this paper. Additionally, the probability distribution of the layer thickness is studied to determine the best-fit probability distribution. The study combines the use of an empirical model (power-law) and the Markov chain principles, with the purpose of demonstrating that it is feasible to develop a model that represents the non-uniformity of the thickness of boride layers that form on carbon steel. The results indicate that the mean and variance tend to increase when the time or temperature is increased. The findings of this paper demonstrate that an analytical solution to the Kolmogorov’s system differential equation can adequately represent the behavior of non-uniform boride layer formed on low-carbon steel, regardless of the temperature or duration of treatment

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Thinning Corrosion Rate of Steel Heat Exchanger in Hydrodesulfurization Plants

Fuel consumption has been increasing in recent years, especially that of diesel and jet fuel. For this reason, the necessity to build new plants to reduce their sulfur content has arisen. Sometimes, just revamping existing plants is feasible, but determining which pieces of equipment are in the appropriate condition to be reused is also necessary. In order to select the equipment, it is essential to have information about the wall thickness of vessels. Sometimes, the information is limited; consequently, the application of advanced statistical techniques is needed. ,e Bayesian Data Analysis (BDA) used in this study has the goal of determining a more accurate, unobserved thinning rate distribution for existing heat exchangers, taking into consideration all the information available about the thinning rate of the heat exchangers that cool down the effluent of the hydrotreating reactors in Mexican oil refineries. ,e information obtained from BDA was compared with existing shell wall thickness obtaining favorable results