The Effects of Soil Improving Cropping Systems (SICS) on Soil Erosion and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks across Europe : A Simulation Study

Healthy soils are fundamental for sustainable agriculture. Soil Improving Cropping Systems (SICS) aim to make land use and food production more sustainable. To evaluate the effect of SICS at EU scale, a modelling approach was taken. This study simulated the effects of SICS on two principal indicators of soil health (Soil Organic Carbon stocks) and land degradation (soil erosion) across Europe using the spatially explicit PESERA model. Four scenarios with varying levels and combinations of cover crops, mulching, soil compaction alleviation and minimum tillage were implemented and simulated until 2050. Results showed that while in the scenario without SICS, erosion slightly increased on average across Europe, it significantly decreased in the scenario with the highest level of SICS applied, especially in the cropping areas in the central European Loess Belt. Regarding SOC stocks, the simulations show a substantial decrease for the scenario without SICS and a slight overall decrease for the medium level scenario and the scenario with a mix of high, medium and no SICS. The scenario with a high level of SICS implementation showed an overall increase in SOC stocks across Europe. Potential future improvements include incorporating dynamic land use, climate change and an optimal spatial allocation of SICS

MOLAND-Light: Supporting Planners With a Generic Land Use Model for European Regions

Despite the increasing interest planners show in land use models, their actual use in supporting the planning practice is still limited. A frequently heard complaint about these models is that they are too difficult to use. Most planners do not have a background in modelling and the calibration required for the application of a model to their region is often seen as an obstacle. The usual modeller-centred operation of such tools, inflicting upon users the full range of calibration parameters without discriminating between those who are relevant for the planning practice and those who are mere internal parameters, distracts attention from the aim of these models to support the integrated assessment of planning alternatives. MOLAND-Light tries to bridge the gap between the MOLAND land use model and the planning practice. Its aim is to reach a large audience with a moderately complex model driven by a simple user interface. MOLAND-Light builds on the framework of the MOLAND land use model which uses a well established method known as constrained cellular automata. The total demand for each land use class is determined exogenously and the cellular automata algorithm allocates these land uses on the map. MOLAND applications are calibrated specifically for a particular region and each application therefore has its own specific parameterisation. MOLAND-Light is generic in the sense that it uses the same model with the same parameterisation for all subareas of the targeted geographical extent (EU-27). To develop a generic rule set for all regions, MOLAND-Light was calibrated for selected case study areas, representing both urbanized and more rural areas, and independently validated for other areas over the same simulation period. To ensure an easy access to planners, the user interface is simplified to those drivers relevant for planning and the calibrated applications are accessible from a web server that contains the model as well as all data and parameters. A user who wants to do a scenario study first selects a region of interest. For this region future population developments and area demands for selected land uses are defined. Then MOLAND-Light allocates these land uses on the map for each consecutive year, leading to a time series of maps of the land use developments and a set of socio-economic and environmental indicators, under the assumptions of the defined scenario. This paper will describe the MOLAND-Light model, as well as the calibration and validation results for the generic rule set.JRC.DDG.H.6-Spatial data infrastructure

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Policies with Dynamic Land Use Change Modelling

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike. This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Development of an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System (ISDSS) for local government in New Zealand

International audienceTools that incorporate information from different disciplines can greatly assist policy development of today's complex and interconnected issues and result in more informed decision-making. Over the past years the councils of the Waikato region in New Zealand have, in collaboration with several research organisations, developed an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System (ISDSS). The ISDSS forms part of an overall process that links qualitative scenarios and deliberative methods to quantitative systems modeling. The aim of the ISDSS tool is to: (1) inform strategic planning; (2) communicate and inform stakeholders and community; (3) identify links between the economy, the environment and society, expose trade-offs and enable win-win situations; and (4) enhance local government capability and capacity. The ISDSS consists of a spatially explicit systems model operating at four scales: global, regional, district and local (200 m grid cells). The current temporal resolution is one year and its horizon is set at 2050. In the development of the integrated model there has been a strong emphasis on the linkage and feedback loops between the different components (e.g., climate, hydrology, water quality, economics, population, land use and biodiversity), rather than on modeling all elements to the highest detail possible. Although ISDSSs are rapidly gaining traction for planning and policy making only few are actually being used. The paper discusses some key factors that determine the success or failure of the implementation of an ISDSS and outlines to what extent the current version of the Waikato ISDSS fulfils these requirements