Corruption Risks in Renewable Resource Governance: Case Studies in Iceland and Romania

In this research, we attempt to shed light on the question of where corruption risks in the governance of renewable resources are located and how they have been addressed in European countries that have different levels of corruption. A comparative case study design was chosen, looking into the fisheries sector in Iceland and the forestry sector in Romania. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews with various stakeholders sampled through a snowball method. Qualitative coding and systems analysis were used to analyse the interviews. The results indicate that comprehensive and ambitious legislation does not necessarily translate into successful resource governance systems. In general, the institutions that were put in place to enforce and monitor the legal codes and regulations did not have the capacity to carry out their role. Additionally, interviewees were generally found to have a widespread perception of there being a corrupt relationship between politics and big companies operating in their sectors. Our findings suggest that when people hold such perceptions, it undermines anti-corruption policy efforts in the resource sectors, which can then impede sustainable resource management

On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model

Publisher's version (útgefin grein).The long-term supply sustainability of copper, zinc and lead was assessed. Copper will not run into physcal scarcity in the future, but increased demand and decreased resource quality will cause significant price increases. The copper price is suggested to increase significantly in the coming decades. A similar situation applies for zinc and lead with soft scarcity and increased prices for zinc. The total supply of copper reaches a maximum 2030–2045, zinc 2030–2050 and lead 2025-2030. The copper supply per person and year and decline after 2130, and the copper stock-in-use reaches a maximum in 2050 and decline afterwards. The zinc supply per person per year reach a maximum in 2100 and decline after 2100, and the zinc stock-in use shows a similar pattern. The lead supply per person reach a plateau in 1985, and decline after 2070, whereas the lead stock-in-use reach a plateau in 2080 and decline after 2100. For copper, zinc and lead, scarcity will mainly be manifested as increased metal price, with feedbacks on demand. The predicted price increase will cause recycling to increase in the future. The supply situation for copper would be much improved if the recycling of copper could be strongly promoted through policy means, as well as it would work well to limit the price increases predicted under business-as-usual. Considering the importance of these metals for society, it is essential to set adequate policies for resource efficiency and resource conservation for society.This study contributed to the SimRess project (Models, potential andlong-term scenarios for resource efficiency),funded by the GermanFederal Ministry for Environment and the German EnvironmentalProtection Agency (FKZ 3712 93 102). Dr. Ullrich Lorenz is projectofficer at the German Environmental Protection Agency (UBA). Onbehalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is noconflict of interest.Peer Reviewe

Transparency and Leverage Points for Sustainable Resource Management

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.The phrase ‘sunshine is the best disinfectant’ is commonly used to suggest that transparency can counter corruption and ensure accountability. In the policy world, several analytical tools have been developed to obtain information on what policy decision would bring about the biggest positive effect for the least amount of effort. There is a tendency to view transparency as the silver bullet in that respect. This paper aimed to shed light on how measures of transparency can serve as a leverage point for sustainable resource management. We begin by analysing the concept of transparency and then draw from Donella Meadows’ work on leverage points to analyse the transformative potential of increasing transparency towards sustainable resource management. We then demonstrate the use of this analytical approach by applying it to three case studies on resource management systems in Ukraine, Romania, and Iceland. The results suggested that transparency in resource management needs to be accompanied by widely accepted standards and accountability mechanisms for it to serve as an effective leverage point. If these factors are neglected, the credibility of transparency can be undermined. Prioritising transparency as a policy intervention to alleviate corruption risks, in the absence of accountability mechanisms and clear rules, might be misplaced, and require deeper leverage points.Peer reviewe

Designing sustainable soils in Earth’s critical zone

The demographic drivers of increasing human population and wealth are creating tremendous environmental pressures from growing intensity of land use, resulting in soil and land degradation worldwide. Environmental services are provided through multiple soil functions that include biomass production, water storage and transmission, nutrient transformations, contaminant attenuation, carbon and nitrogen storage, providing habitat and maintaining the genetic diversity of the land environment. One of the greatest challenges of the 21st century is to identify key risks to soil, and to design mitigation strategies to manage these risks and to enhance soil functions that can last into the future. The scientific study of Earth’s Critical Zone (CZ), the thin surface layer that extends vertically from the top of the tree canopy to the bottom of aquifers, provides an essential integrating scientific framework to study, protect and enhance soil functions. The research hypothesis is that soil structure, the geometric architecture of solids, pores and biomass, is a critical indicator and essential factor of productive soil functions. The experimental design selects a network of Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) as advanced field research sites along a gradient of land use intensity in order to quantify soil structure and soil processes that dictate the flows and transformations of material and energy as soil functions. The CZOs focus multidisciplinary expertise on soil processes, field observation and data interpretation, management science and ecological economics. Computational simulation of biophysical processes provides a quantitative method of integration for the range of theory and observations that are required to quantify the linkages between changes in soil structure and soil functions. Key results demonstrate that changes in soil structure can be quantified through the inputs of organic carbon and nitrogen from plant productivity and microbial activity, coupled with particle aggregation dynamics and organic matter mineralization. Simulation results show that soil structure is highly dynamic and is sensitive to organic matter production and mineralisation rates as influenced by vegetation, tillage and organic carbon amendments. These results point to a step-change in the capability to design soil management and land use through computational simulation. This approach of “sustainability by design” describes the mechanistic process linkages that exist between the above-ground inputs to the CZ and the internal processes that produce soil functions. This approach provides a rational, scientific approach to selecting points of intervention with the CZ in order to design methods to mitigate soil threats and to enhance and sustain vital soil functions. Furthermore, this approach provides a successful pilot study to the use of international networks of CZOs as a planetary-scale laboratory to test the response of CZ process rates along gradients of global environmental change – and to test adaptation strategies to manage the risks arising from the CZ impacts.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model

A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves

The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future

Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model

The global cobalt cycle in society was modelled using an integrated systems dynamics model, WORLD6, integrating several earlier system dynamics models developed by the authors. The COBALT sub-model was used to assess the long-term sufficiency of the available extractable cobalt and address the effect of different degrees of recycling on cobalt supply. The extraction of cobalt is mostly dependent on the extraction of copper, nickel and platinum group metals. The ultimately recoverable resources estimate was 32 million ton on land and 34 million ton on the ocean floors, a total of 66 million ton, significantly larger than earlier estimates. It is very uncertain how much of the cobalt, detected in ocean floor deposits, is extractable. The present use of cobalt by society is diverse and about half the total cobalt production to the market is in the form of metallic cobalt. The simulations show that cobalt extraction is predicted to reach a peak in the years 2025–2030 and that the supply will reach a peak level in 2040–2050. Three different global population scenarios were used (high, middle, low). We predict that the supply of cobalt will decline slowly with about 3–5% per year after 2050. The present use of cobalt in chemicals, colours, rechargeable batteries and super-alloys shows a low degree of recycling and the systemic losses are significant. After 2170, cobalt will have run out under business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual cobalt use in society is not sustainable. Too much cobalt is lost if only market mechanisms are expected to improve recycling, and unnecessary cobalt is wasted if no policy actions are taken. Increased recycling and better conservation will be able to improve the supply situation, but this will need active policy participation beyond what market mechanisms can do alone. To conserve cobalt for coming generations, present policies must be changed within the next few decades. The sooner policies change, the better for future generation

Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Modelling the copper, zinc and lead mining rates and co-extraction of dependent metals, supply, price and extractable amounts using the BRONZE model

The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the by-products antimony, indium, germanium, tellurium, cadmium, bismuth and selenium. The runs show that copper, zinc and lead go through peak production around 2050 and declines as the resources run out some time after 2100, and with them the metals produced as by products become unavailable