Selling Money on Ebay: A Field Study of Surplus Division

We study the division of trade surplus in a competitive market environment by conducting a natural field experiment on German eBay. Acting as a seller, we offer Amazon gift cards with face values of up to 500 Euro. Randomly arriving buyers, the subjects of our experiment, make price offers according to eBay rules. Using a novel decomposition method, we infer offered shares of trade surplus and find that the average share proposed to the seller amounts to 29%. Additionally, we document: (i) insignificant effects of stake size; (ii) poor use of strategically relevant public information; and (iii) behavioural differences between East and West German subjects

Lomonosov GRB Catalogue: The First Experience of Prompt Emission Multi-Wavelength Observations

This paper presents a catalogue of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) that were detected by the instruments onboard the Lomonosov space observatory. The Lomonosov mission gave the first experience of not only multi-wavelength (from optical to gamma) observations of GRBs but also multi-messenger observations of extreme phenomena and GRBs. The detailed light curves and energy spectra of the detected GRBs are presented. The results of the prompt, early an afterglow optical observations of several GRBs are discussed

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July–August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct