Estimating the benefits of early warning systems in reducing urban flood risk to people: a spatially explicit Bayesian model

Flood risk assessment usually focuses on damages to material objects (indirect tangible costs) and downplays the broader socio-economic aspects of flood-prone systems. Such aspects are crucial for an accurate assessment of risk to human receptors and of the benefits of non-structural measures. For example, an early warning system (EWS) that reduces the amount of direct tangible costs only partially could: (i) save lives (direct intangible costs); (ii) help avoid long-lasting trauma (indirect intangible costs); (iii) prevent post-disaster evacuation costs (indirect tangible costs). We present a methodology to assess flood risk to people, which integrates people’s vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards by coping and adapting. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. Flood risk to people is modelled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinions (25 experts were involved). Risk to people is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing EWS, taking into account reliability, lead-time and scope. The proposed approach can: (1) improve flood cost estimation by extending its scope beyond direct and tangible damages; (2) complement quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and (3) produce estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all its outputs

The Total Cost of Water-Related Disasters

Water-related disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Efficient risk reduction policies require accurate assessment approaches, with careful consideration of costs, beyond material damages, which are commonly used in practice. Faced with possible risk reduction scenarios, limited financial resources require an improvement in the quality of cost estimation, thereby contributing to an efficient allocation of resources. This paper reviews the concept of total cost in the context of water-related disasters, elaborating on the typical direct/indirect and tangible/intangible cost categories. These categories are defined and explained, supported by a comprehensive assessment of economic valuation methods. Based on this information, practice relevant suggestions are made concerning the most appropriate methods for different cases in terms of scale, availability of data and of technical resources

An Integrated Approach for Including Social Capacities, and Economic Valuation in Risk Assessment of Water Related Hazards in Uncertain Scenarios

We propose a conceptual framework, KR-FWK (i.e. KULTURisk Framework from the name of the European project within which it originated) and its implementation methods SERRA (Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment) for integrated (physical and economical) risk assessment, and economic valuation of risk prevention benefits on multiple receptors. The KR-FWK and the SERRA approach are characterised by: (i) integration of physical-environmental dimensions and the socio-economic ones in risk assessment; (ii) consideration of the role of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacity) in reducing risk and related costs, (iii) quantitative (even monetary) assessment of risks and of the benefits of risk reduction measures, and (iv) solutions to deal with multiple sources of uncertainty in view of including the change dimension in decision support. Building on a widely adopted conceptual model, Risk is here considered as the combination of Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure. In turn, Vulnerability is the result of the interactions between physical characteristics (susceptibility) and the capacities of the socio-economic system to adapt and cope with a given natural hazard. Exposure quantifies the natural and anthropogenic assets, which may be subject to the hazard. Whenever possible and desirable, exposure can be assessed in monetary terms, and thus the multiplicative combination of two indices ranging between 0 and 1 (H and V) with a third one (E) expressed in monetary terms produces a monetary quantification of risk. KR-FWK and SERRA have been applied to a series of case studies to test and consolidate the approach in various contexts of data availability, scale, etc

Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment (SERRA) application to flood risk in the Vipacco Basin (north-east Italy)

According to EEA (European Environmental Agency), flood is the most dangerous natural hazard in Europe in terms of economic losses. TheKULTURisk Project (EU FP7) has developed a novel methodology for evaluating the integrated benefits of risk prevention of water related natural hazards: SERRA (i.e. Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment). The proposed methodology enhances the traditional flood risk assessment by integrating the missing socio-economic dimension into the established regional risk assessment. Several case studies across Europe allowed for the consolidation, validation, and refinement of SERRA. This paper presents the results of its application to assess the benefits deriving from the installation of an Early Warning System in Vipacco river basin in Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy). Social, economic and physical data are used to assess the total expected risk for several receptors such as economic activities, cultural heritage, people, etc. The collected socio-economic data are stored in Geographic Information System (GIS) and processed according to SERRA algorithms to produce maps of various categories of costs (beyond physical-environmental damages) in order to assist the Decision Makers (DMs) in making more informative decisions. The visualization of total risk through GIS maps allows the DMs to understand the spatial distribution of social vulnerability, risk, and associated costs

NATO-MSG-058 Conceptual Modeling for M&S

The NATO Research and Technology Agency has set up the Modeling and Simulation Group (MSG) 058 with title "Conceptual Modeling for M&S" to produce guidance on conceptual modeling for modeling and simulation (M&S) development within NATO. The Task Group is comprised of CAN, ESP, NOR, NLD, ROM, SWE, TUR and USA. This paper introduces the group's mandate and reviews the state-of-the-art of doing conceptual modeling. Current M&S standards, such as DIS and HLA, have provided the first steps to composability, interoperability, and reuse, but they are not sufficient to support understanding simulation development and to facilitate semantic consistency at the conceptual level of consequent simulation products. Systematic conceptual modeling will help to improve common understanding between stakeholders that are involved in simulation development, composition, and use for the defense establishment. This will lead to better requirement specification; and it is key to the transformation of requirements to implemented simulations fit for their intended use. NMSG-058 is committed to clarify the process and results of "Conceptual Modeling", and to recommend best practice to generate, document, and use conceptual models. The group is studying the fundaments of conceptualization of existing and prospective realities; methodologies for generating, documenting, and sharing conceptualizations; correlation of conceptual modeling with simulation and software engineering processes; and relevant initiatives and technologies. The main deliverable is a guide on the conceptual modeling process and product, that will provide best practice instruction and serve the needs of relevant stakeholders. Furthermore, the group is committed to offering the results of its efforts as the basis for establishment of a SISO standard. Copyright © 2008, SISO, Inc

Development of food fraud media monitoring system based on text mining

Food fraud is receiving considerable attention with the growing body of literature that recognises its importance. No system exists that collects media reports on food fraud. In this study, we used the infrastructure provided by the European Media Monitor (EMM), in particular it's MedISys portal for this purpose. We developed a food fraud tool (MedISys-FF) that collects, processes and presents food fraud reports published world-wide in the media. MedISys-FF is updated every 10 min 24/7. Food fraud reports were collected with MedISys-FF for 16 months (September 2014 to December 2015) and benchmarked against food fraud reports published in Rapid Alert for Food and feed (RASFF), Economically Motivated Adulteration Database (EMA) and HorizonScan. The results showed that MedISys-FF collects food fraud publications with high relevance >75% and the top 4 most reported fraudulent commodities in the media were i) meat, ii) seafood, iii) milk and iv) alcohol. These top stories align with those found in RASFF and EMA but differences in frequency are apparent. Analysis of the collected articles can help understanding food fraud issues in the origin countries and can facilitate the development of control measures and to detect food fraud in the food supply chain

Development of food fraud media monitoring system based on text mining

Food fraud is receiving considerable attention with the growing body of literature that recognises its importance. No system exists that collects media reports on food fraud. In this study, we used the infrastructure provided by the European Media Monitor (EMM), in particular it's MedISys portal for this purpose. We developed a food fraud tool (MedISys-FF) that collects, processes and presents food fraud reports published world-wide in the media. MedISys-FF is updated every 10 min 24/7. Food fraud reports were collected with MedISys-FF for 16 months (September 2014 to December 2015) and benchmarked against food fraud reports published in Rapid Alert for Food and feed (RASFF), Economically Motivated Adulteration Database (EMA) and HorizonScan. The results showed that MedISys-FF collects food fraud publications with high relevance >75% and the top 4 most reported fraudulent commodities in the media were i) meat, ii) seafood, iii) milk and iv) alcohol. These top stories align with those found in RASFF and EMA but differences in frequency are apparent. Analysis of the collected articles can help understanding food fraud issues in the origin countries and can facilitate the development of control measures and to detect food fraud in the food supply chain