Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) “carrier” state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal’s age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a ”carrier” fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle

Comparative evaluation of six ELISAs for the detection of antibodies to the non-structural proteins of foot-and-mouth disease virus

To validate the use of serology in substantiating freedom from infection after foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks have been controlled by measures that include vaccination, 3551 sera were tested with six assays that detect antibodies to the non-structural proteins of FMD virus. The sera came from naïve, vaccinated, infected and vaccinated-and-infected animals; two-thirds from cattle, the remainder from sheep and pigs. The assays were covariant for sensitivity, but not necessarily for specificity. A commercial kit from Cedi-diagnostics and an in-house assay from IZS-Brescia were comparable to the NCPanaftosa-screening index method described in the Diagnostic Manual of the World Animal Health Organisation. Using these three tests the specificity and sensitivity for the detection of carriers in vaccinated cattle approaches or exceeds 99% and 90%, respectively