Impacts of Western Area Power Administration`s power marketing alternatives on electric utility systems

This technical memorandum estimates the effects of alternative contractual commitments that may be initiated by the Western Area Power Administration`s Salt Lake City Area Office. It also studies hydropower operational restrictions at the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects in combination with these alternatives. Power marketing and hydropower operational effects are estimated in support of Western`s Electric Power Marketing Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Electricity production and capacity expansion for utility systems that will be directly affected by alternatives specified in the EIS are simulated. Cost estimates are presented by utility type and for various activities such as capacity expansion, generation, long-term firm purchases and sales, fixed operation and maintenance expenses, and spot market activities. Operational changes at hydropower facilities are also investigated

Identifying Most Probable Negotiation Scenario in Bilateral Contracts with Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes an adaptation of the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm, for the identification of the most probable scenario that a player may face, under different contexts, when negotiating bilateral contracts. For that purpose, the proposed methodology is integrated in a Decision Support System that is capable to generate several different scenarios for each negotiation context. With this complement, the tool can also identify the most probable scenario for the identified negotiation context. A realistic case study is conducted, based on real contracts data, which confirms the learning capabilities of the proposed methodology. It is possible to identify the most probable scenario for each context over the learned period. Nonetheless, the identified scenario might not always be the real negotiation scenario, given the variable nature of such negotiations. However, this work greatly reduces the frequency of such unexpected scenarios, contributing to a greater success of the supported player over time.This work has received funding from National Funds through FCT (Fundaçao da Ciencia e Tecnologia) under the project SPET – 29165, call SAICT 2017.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Poland Becoming a Member of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, Vol. 2.

Within a constrained carbon environment, the risks of future natural gas supply, and the need to move to market-based electricity prices, the study team found: (1) the deployment of new nuclear energy in Poland itself is very competitive in the next decade or two; (2) if such generation could be made available to Poland prior to deployment of its own nuclear generation facilities, Poland would benefit from partnering with its Baltic neighbors to import electricity derived from new nuclear generation facilities sited in Lithuania; and (3) Poland appears to be a good candidate for a partnership in the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) as an emerging nuclear energy country

Review of Jamaica Public Service Company, Ltd. least-cost expansion plan.

Argonne National Laboratory has been asked to review the least-cost expansion plan (LCEP) of the Jamaica Public Service Company, Ltd. (JPSCo). The material that has been initially provided to Argonne included: (1) An electronic copy of the data and results from JPSCo's running the WASP electric system expansion planning model, (2) Approximately 20 pages of a document 'JPSCo Generation Expansion Plan', marked 'DRAFT 002', date unknown, and (3) The report 'JPSCo Least Cost Generation Expansion Plans, (1999-2009)', January 1999. It was noticed that the 20 pages from the 'DRAFT 002' document were different from the January 1999 report. An explanation was provided to Argonne that the excerpt was from an earlier draft and that the review should focus on the January 1999 report. Further, the electronic copy of the WASP case did not correspond to either the January 1999 report or to the 20-page excerpt. Again, the reason for these discrepancies was that the WASP case provided to Argonne was an earlier case and not the final one that was presented in the report. Based on the review of the available material, Argonne experts have prepared and submitted to the National Investment Bank of Jamaica (NIBJ) a preliminary draft report containing the initial findings, comments, questions and observations. As many of the comments and questions raised in the preliminary review needed to be discussed with the appropriate staff of JPSCo and other Jamaican experts, a 3-day mission to Jamaica was carried out by one Argonne expert (V. Koritarov) in the period July 20-23, 1999. Besides JPSCo experts, the discussions and the review of the LCEP during the mission included several experts from NIBJ, Ministry of Energy, and the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica. Mr. Koritarov also worked with the JPSCo technical staff to reconstruct the WASP base case that was used as a basis for the January 1999 report. The first step was to verify that the results obtained after the resimulation of this case were identical to those presented in the January 1999 report. Then, in the next step, the Argonne expert and JPSCo team reviewed this case in detail and performed certain modifications and improvements of data where necessary. These modifications and data adjustments resulted in a new base case that served as a basis for further review and for the sensitivity analyses. Several sensitivity analyses were performed together with JPSCo experts and the results were discussed with the JPSCo management and other Jamaican experts at the end of the mission. Additional sensitivity analyses, as well as the cases for high and low load forecasts, were conducted by Mr. Koritarov after returning from Jamaica. The main findings of the review and issues that have been discussed with the Jamaican team can be summarized

Zambia: Long-Term Generation Expansion Study - Executive Summary.

The objective of this study is to analyze possible long-term development options of the Zambian electric power system in the period up to 2015. The analysis involved the hydro operations studies of the Zambezi river basin and the systems planning studies for the least-cost generation expansion planning. Two well-known and widely accepted computer models were used in the analysis: PC-VALORAGUA model for the hydro operations and optimization studies and the WASP-III Plus model for the optimization of long-term system development. The WASP-III Plus model is a part of the Argonne National Laboratory's Energy and Power Evaluation Model (ENPEP). The analysis was conducted in close collaboration with the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO). On the initiative from The World Bank, the sponsor of the study, ZESCO formed a team of experts that participated in the analysis and were trained in the use of computer models. Both models were transferred to ZESCO free of charge and installed on several computers in the ZESCO corporate offices in Lusaka. In September-October 1995, two members of the ZESCO National Team participated in a 4-week training course at Argonne National Laboratory near Chicago, U.S.A., focusing on the long-term system expansion planning using the WASP and VALORAGUA models. The hydropower operations studies were performed for the whole Zambezi river basin, including the full installation of the Kariba power station, and the Cahora Bassa hydro power station in Mozambique. The analysis also included possible future projects such as Itezhi-Tezhi, Kafue Gorge Lower, and Batoka Gorge power stations. As hydropower operations studies served to determine the operational characteristics of the existing and future hydro power plants, it was necessary to simulate the whole Zambezi river basin in order to take into account all interactions and mutual influences between the hydro power plants. In addition, it allowed for the optimization of reservoir management and optimization of hydro cascades, resulting in the better utilization of available hydro potential. Numerous analyses were performed for different stages of system development. These include system configurations that correspond to years 1997, 2001, 2015 and 2020. Additional simulations were performed in order to determine the operational parameters of the three existing hydro power stations Victoria Falls, Kariba, and Kafue Gorge Upper, that correspond to the situation before and after their rehabilitation. The rehabilitation works for these three major power stations, that would bring their operational parameters and availability back to the design level, are planned to be carried out in the period until 2000. The main results of the hydro operations studies are presented in Table ES-1. These results correspond to VALORAGUA simulations of system configurations in the years 2001 and 2015. The minimum, average, and maximum electricity generation is based on the simulation of monthly water inflows that correspond to the chronological series of unregulated water inflows at each hydro profile in the period from April 1961 to March 1990. The recommended hydrology dataset provided in the Hydrology Report of the SADC Energy Project AAA 3.8 was used for this study

Nord Pool Ontology to Enhance Electricity Markets Simulation in MASCEM

This paper proposes the use of ontologies to enable information and knowledge exchange, to test different electricity market models and to allow players from different systems to interact in common market environments. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyse dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as the complex and dynamic electricity markets. The main drivers are the markets’ restructuring and evolution into regional and continental scales, along with the constant changes brought by the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources. An ontology to represent the concepts related to the Nord Pool Elspot market is proposed. It is validated through a case study considering the simulation of Elspot market. Results show that heterogeneous agents are able to effectively participate in the simulation by using the proposed ontologies to support their communications with the Nord Pool market operator.This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 641794 (project DREAM-GO) and from FEDER Funds through COMPETE program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio