Physicians' database searches as a tool for early detection of epidemics.

We analyzed retrospectively the use of Physician Desk Reference Database searches to identify epidemics of tularemia, nephropathy, Pogosta disease, and Lyme disease and compared the searches with mandatory laboratory reports to the National Infectious Diseases Register in Finland during 1995. Continuous recording of such searches may be a tool for early detection of epidemics

Web Queries as a Source for Syndromic Surveillance

In the field of syndromic surveillance, various sources are exploited for outbreak detection, monitoring and prediction. This paper describes a study on queries submitted to a medical web site, with influenza as a case study. The hypothesis of the work was that queries on influenza and influenza-like illness would provide a basis for the estimation of the timing of the peak and the intensity of the yearly influenza outbreaks that would be as good as the existing laboratory and sentinel surveillance. We calculated the occurrence of various queries related to influenza from search logs submitted to a Swedish medical web site for two influenza seasons. These figures were subsequently used to generate two models, one to estimate the number of laboratory verified influenza cases and one to estimate the proportion of patients with influenza-like illness reported by selected General Practitioners in Sweden. We applied an approach designed for highly correlated data, partial least squares regression. In our work, we found that certain web queries on influenza follow the same pattern as that obtained by the two other surveillance systems for influenza epidemics, and that they have equal power for the estimation of the influenza burden in society. Web queries give a unique access to ill individuals who are not (yet) seeking care. This paper shows the potential of web queries as an accurate, cheap and labour extensive source for syndromic surveillance

Computerized general practice based networks yield comparable performance with sentinel data in monitoring epidemiological time-course of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks might serve as early warning systems in a time where natural epidemics such as the H₁N₁flu can easily spread from one region to another.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this contribution we examine whether general practice based broad-spectrum computerized morbidity registration networks have the potential to act as a valid surveillance instrument of frequently occurring diseases. We compare general practice based computerized data assessing the frequency of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) with data from a well established case-specific sentinel network, the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The overall frequency and trends of weekly ILI and ARI data are compared using both networks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Detection of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness occurs equally fast in EISS and the computerized network. The overall frequency data for ARI are the same for both networks, the overall trends are similar, but the increases and decreases in frequency do not occur in exactly the same weeks. For ILI, the overall rate was slightly higher for the computerized network population, especially before the increase of ILI, the overall trend was almost identical and the increases and decreases occur in the same weeks for both networks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks are a valid tool for monitoring frequent occurring respiratory diseases and the detection of sudden outbreaks.</p

Follow-up observations of GW170817 with the MAGIC telescopes

The discovery of the electromagnetic counterpart AT2017gfo and the GRB 170817A, associated to the binary neutron star merger GW170817, was one of the major advances in the study of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and the hallmark of the multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. Another breakthrough in GRB physics is represented by the discovery of the highly energetic, teraelectronvolt (TeV) component in the GRB 190114C, possibly an universal component in all GRBs. This conclusion is also suggested by the hint of TeV emission in the short GRB 160821B and a few more events reported in the literature. The missing observational piece is the joint detection of TeV emission and gravitational waves from a short GRB and its progenitor. MAGIC observed the counterpart AT2017gfo as soon as the visibility conditions allowed it, namely from January to June 2018. These observations correspond to the maximum flux level observed in the radio and X-ray bands. The upper limits derived from TeV observations are compared with the modelling of the late non-thermal emission using the multi-frequency SED

First detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from TXS 1515-273, study of its X-ray variability and spectral energy distribution

We report here on the first multi-wavelength (MWL) campaign on the blazar TXS 1515-273, undertaken in 2019 and extending from radio to very-high-energy gamma rays (VHE). Up until now, this blazar had not been the subject of any detailed MWL observations. It has a rather hard photon index at GeV energies and was considered a candidate extreme high-synchrotronpeaked source. MAGIC observations resulted in the first-time detection of the source in VHE with a statistical significance of 7.6$\sigma$. The average integral VHE flux of the source is 6 $\pm$ 1% of the Crab nebula flux above 400 GeV. X-ray coverage was provided by Swift-XRT, XMMNewton, and NuSTAR. The long continuous X-ray observations were separated by $\sim$ 9 h, both showing clear hour scale flares. In the XMM-Newton data, both the rise and decay timescales are longer in the soft X-ray than in the hard X-ray band, indicating the presence of a particle cooling regime. The X-ray variability timescales were used to constrain the size of the emission region and the strength of the magnetic field. The data allowed us to determine the synchrotron peak frequency and classify the source as a flaring high, but not extreme, synchrotron peaked object. Considering the constraints and variability patterns from the X-ray data, we model the broad-band spectral energy distribution. We applied a simple one-zone model, which could not reproduce the radio emission and the shape of the optical emission, and a two-component leptonic model with two interacting components, enabling us to reproduce the emission from radio to VHE band

MAGIC observations of the nearby short GRB 160821B

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), the most luminous explosions in the universe, have at least two types known. One of them, short GRBs, have been thought to originate from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. The discovery of GW170817 together with a GRB was the first and only direct proof of the hypothesis, and thus the properties of the short GRBs are poorly known yet. Aiming to clarify the underlying physical mechanisms of the short GRBs, we analyzed GRB 160821B, one of the nearest short GRBs known at z=0.162, observed with the MAGIC telescopes. A hint of a gamma-ray signal is found above 0.5 TeV at a significance of &gt;3 sigma during observations from 24 seconds until 4 hours after the burst, as presented in the past. Recently, multi-wavelength data of its afterglow emission revealed a well-sampled kilonova component from a BNS merger, and the importance of GRB 160821B increased concerning GRB-GW studies. Accordingly, we investigated GRB afterglow models again, using the revised multi-wavelength data. We found that the straightforward interpretation with one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model from the external forward shock is in tension with the observed TeV flux, contradicting the suggestion reported previously. In this contribution we discuss the implication from the TeV observation, including alternative scenarios where the TeV emission can be enhanced. We also give a brief outlook of future GeV-TeV observations of short GRBs with imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes, which could shed more light on the GRB-BNS merger relation

Multiwavelength monitoring of the gravitationally lensed blazar QSO B0218+357 between 2016 and 2020

QSO B0218+357 is currently the only gravitationally lensed source from which very-high-energy (VHE, &amp;100GeV) gamma-ray emission has been detected. We report the multiwavelength monitoring observations of this source performed between 2016 and 2020 in radio interferometry, optical, X-ray and gamma-ray bands. During the monitoring individual flares and hints of enhanced states in optical, X-ray and GeV bands have been observed, and the simultaneous data taken by the MAGIC telescopes allow us to search for the VHE gamma-ray emission associated with these events

Polarized blazar X-rays imply particle acceleration in shocks

Most of the light from blazars, active galactic nuclei with jets of magnetized plasma that point nearly along the line of sight, is produced by high-energy particles, up to around 1 TeV. Although the jets are known to be ultimately powered by a supermassive black hole, how the particles are accelerated to such high energies has been an unanswered question. The process must be related to the magnetic field, which can be probed by observations of the polarization of light from the jets. Measurements of the radio to optical polarization—the only range available until now—probe extended regions of the jet containing particles that left the acceleration site days to years earlier1,2,3, and hence do not directly explore the acceleration mechanism, as could X-ray measurements. Here we report the detection of X-ray polarization from the blazar Markarian 501 (Mrk 501). We measure an X-ray linear polarization degree ΠX of around 10%, which is a factor of around 2 higher than the value at optical wavelengths, with a polarization angle parallel to the radio jet. This points to a shock front as the source of particle acceleration and also implies that the plasma becomes increasingly turbulent with distance from the shock

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar VER J0521+211 during an Elevated TeV Gamma-Ray State

We report on a long-lasting, elevated gamma-ray flux state from VER J0521+211 observed by VERITAS, MAGIC, and Fermi-LAT in 2013 and 2014. The peak integral flux above 200 GeV measured with the nightly binned light curve is (8.8 ± 0.4) × 10-7 photons m-2 s-1, or ∼37% of the Crab Nebula flux. Multiwavelength observations from X-ray, UV, and optical instruments are also presented. A moderate correlation between the X-ray and TeV gamma-ray fluxes was observed, and the X-ray spectrum appeared harder when the flux was higher. Using the gamma-ray spectrum and four models of the extragalactic background light (EBL), a conservative 95% confidence upper limit on the redshift of the source was found to be z ≤ 0.31. Unlike the gamma-ray and X-ray bands, the optical flux did not increase significantly during the studied period compared to the archival low-state flux. The spectral variability from optical to X-ray bands suggests that the synchrotron peak of the spectral energy distribution (SED) may become broader during flaring states, which can be adequately described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model varying the high-energy end of the underlying particle spectrum. The synchrotron peak frequency of the SED and the radio morphology of the jet from the MOJAVE program are consistent with the source being an intermediate-frequency-peaked BL Lac object