Modelling Survival Events with Longitudinal Covariates Measured with Error

In survival analysis, time-dependent covariates are usually present as longitudinal data collected periodically and measured with error. The longitudinal data can be assumed to follow a linear mixed effect model and Cox regression models may be used for modelling of survival events. The hazard rate of survival times depends on the underlying time-dependent covariate measured with error, which may be described by random effects. Most existing methods proposed for such models assume a parametric distribution assumption on the random effects and specify a normally distributed error term for the linear mixed effect model. These assumptions may not be always valid in practice. In this article, we propose a new likelihood method for Cox regression models with error-contaminated time-dependent covariates. The proposed method does not require any parametric distribution assumption on random effects and random errors. Asymptotic properties for parameter estimators are provided. Simulation results show that under certain situations the proposed methods are more efficient than the existing methods. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases

Background: Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.Discussion: Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects.Conclusion: Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials

Novel phages of healthy skin metaviromes from South Africa

Recent skin metagenomic studies have investigated the harbored viral diversity and its possible influence on healthy skin microbial populations, and tried to establish global patterns of skin-phage evolution. However, the detail associated with the phages that potentially play a role in skin health has not been investigated. While skin metagenome and -metavirome studies have indicated that the skin virome is highly site specific and shows marked interpersonal variation, they have not assessed the presence/absence of individual phages. Here, we took a semi-culture independent approach (metaviromic) to better understand the composition of phage communities on skin from South African study participants. Our data set adds over 130 new phage species of the skin to existing databases. We demonstrated that identical phages were present on different individuals and in different body sites, and we conducted a detailed analysis of the structural organization of these phages. We further found that a bacteriophage related to the Staphylococcus capitis phage Stb20 may be a common skin commensal virus potentially regulating its host and its activities on the ski

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in DYRK1A Associated with Replication of HIV-1 in Monocyte-Derived Macrophages

Background: HIV-1 infected macrophages play an important role in rendering resting T cells permissive for infection, in spreading HIV-1 to T cells, and in the pathogenesis of AIDS dementia. During highly active anti-retroviral treatment (HAART), macrophages keep producing virus because tissue penetration of antiretrovirals is suboptimal and the efficacy of some is reduced. Thus, to cure HIV-1 infection with antiretrovirals we will also need to efficiently inhibit viral replication in macrophages. The majority of the current drugs block the action of viral enzymes, whereas there is an abundance of yet unidentified host factors that could be targeted. We here present results from a genome-wide association study identifying novel genetic polymorphisms that affect in vitro HIV-1 replication in macrophages. Methodology/Principal Findings: Monocyte-derived macrophages from 393 blood donors were infected with HIV-1 and viral replication was determined using Gag p24 antigen levels. Genomic DNA from individuals with macrophages that had relatively low (n = 96) or high (n = 96) p24 production was used for SNP genotyping with the Illumina 610 Quad beadchip. A total of 494,656 SNPs that passed quality control were tested for association with HIV-1 replication in macrophages, using linear regression. We found a strong association between in vitro HIV-1 replication in monocyte-derived macrophages and SNP rs12483205 in DYRK1A (p = 2.16×10-5). While the association was not genome-wide significant (p<1×10-7), we could replicate this association using monocyte-derived macrophages from an independent group of 31 individuals (p = 0.0034). Combined analysis of the initial and replication cohort increased the strength of the association (p = 4.84×10-6). In addition, we found this SNP to be associated with HIV-1 disease progression in vivo in two independent cohort studies (p = 0.035 and p = 0.0048). Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that the kinase DYRK1A is involved in the replication of HIV-1, in vitro in macrophages as well as in vivo. © 2011 Bol et al

Using fish models to investigate the links between microbiome and social behaviour: the next step for translational microbiome research?

Recent research has revealed surprisingly important connections between animals’ microbiome and social behaviour. Social interactions can affect the composition and function of the microbiome; conversely, the microbiome affects social communication by influencing the hosts’ central nervous system and peripheral chemical communication. These discoveries set the stage for novel research focusing on the evolution and physiology of animal social behaviour in relation to microbial transmission strategies. Here, we discuss the emerging roles of teleost fish models and their potential for advancing research fields, linked to sociality and microbial regulation. We argue that fish models, such as the zebrafish (Danio rerio, Cyprinidae), sticklebacks (‎Gasterosteidae), guppies (Poeciliidae) and cleaner–client dyads (e.g., obligate cleaner fish from the Labridae and Gobiidae families and their visiting clientele), will provide valuable insights into the roles of microbiome in shaping social behaviour and vice versa, while also being of direct relevance to the food and ornamental fish trades. The diversity of fish behaviour warrants more interdisciplinary research, including microbiome studies, which should have a strong ecological (field‐derived) approach, together with laboratory‐based cognitive and neurobiological experimentation. The implications of such integrated approaches may be of translational relevance, opening new avenues for future investigation using fish models

Population uptake of HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision following a community-based intervention in Botswana (Ya Tsie/BCPP): a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: In settings with high HIV prevalence and treatment coverage, such as Botswana, it is unknown whether uptake of HIV prevention and treatment interventions can be increased further. We sought to determine whether a community-based intervention to identify and rapidly treat people living with HIV, and support male circumcision could increase population levels of HIV diagnosis, treatment, viral suppression, and male circumcision in Botswana. METHODS: The Ya Tsie Botswana Combination Prevention Project study was a pair-matched cluster-randomised trial done in 30 communities across Botswana done from Oct 30, 2013, to June 30, 2018. 15 communities were randomly assigned to receive HIV prevention and treatment interventions, including enhanced HIV testing, earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART), and strengthened male circumcision services, and 15 received standard of care. The first primary endpoint of HIV incidence has already been reported. In this Article, we report findings for the second primary endpoint of population uptake of HIV prevention services, as measured by proportion of people known to be HIV-positive or tested HIV-negative in the preceding 12 months; proportion of people living with HIV diagnosed and on ART; proportion of people living with HIV on ART with viral suppression; and proportion of HIV-negative men circumcised. A longitudinal cohort of residents aged 16-64 years from a random, approximately 20% sample of households across the 15 communities was enrolled to assess baseline uptake of study outcomes; we also administered an end-of-study survey to all residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort to provide study end coverage estimates. Differences in intervention uptake over time by randomisation group were tested via paired Student's t test. The study has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01965470). FINDINGS: In the six communities participating in the end-of-study survey, 2625 residents (n=1304 from standard-of-care communities, n=1321 from intervention communities) were enrolled into the 20% longitudinal cohort at baseline from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015. In the same communities, 10 791 (86%) of 12 489 eligible enumerated residents not previously enrolled in the longitudinal cohort participated in the end-of-study survey from March 30, 2017, to Feb 25, 2018 (5896 in intervention and 4895 in standard-of-care communities). At study end, in intervention communities, 1228 people living with HIV (91% of 1353) were on ART; 1166 people living with HIV (88% of 1321 with available viral load) were virally suppressed, and 673 HIV-negative men (40% of 1673) were circumcised in intervention communities. After accounting for baseline differences, at study end the proportion of people living with HIV who were diagnosed was significantly higher in intervention communities (absolute increase of 9% to 93%) compared with standard-of-care communities (absolute increase of 2% to 88%; prevalence ratio [PR] 1·08 [95% CI 1·02-1·14], p=0·032). Population levels of ART, viral suppression, and male circumcision increased from baseline in both groups, with greater increases in intervention communities (ART PR 1·12 [95% CI 1·07-1·17], p=0·018; viral suppression 1·13 [1·09-1·17], p=0·017; male circumcision 1·26 [1·17-1·35], p=0·029). INTERPRETATION: It is possible to achieve very high population levels of HIV testing and treatment in a high-prevalence setting. Maintaining these coverage levels over the next decade could substantially reduce HIV transmission and potentially eliminate the epidemic in these areas. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention