Binary Population Synthesis: Methods, Normalization, and Surprises

In this paper we present a brief overview of population synthesis methods with a discussion of their main advantages and disadvantages. In the second part, we present some recent results from synthesis models of close binary compact objects with emphasis on the predicted rates, their uncertainties, and the model input parameters the rates are most sensitive to. We also report on a new evolutionary path leading to the formation of close double neutron stars (NS), with the unique characteristic that none of the two NS ever had the chance to be recycled by accretion. Their formation rates turn out to be comparable to or maybe even higher than those of recycled NS-NS binaries (like the ones observed), but their detection probability as binary pulsars is much smaller because of their short lifetimes. We discuss the implications of such a population for gravitational-wave detection of NS-NS inspiral events, and possibly for gamma-ray bursts and their host galaxies.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the proceedings ``The influence of binaries on stellar population studies'', Brussels, August 2000 (Kluwer Academic Publishers), ed. D.Vanbevere

Density profiles of dark matter haloes: diversity and dependence on environment

(Abridged) We study the outer density profiles of dark matter haloes predicted by a generalized secondary infall model and observed in a N-body cosmological simulation of a \Lambda CDM model. We find substantial systematic variations in shapes and concentrations of the halo profiles as well as a strong correlation of the profiles with the environment. In the N-body simulation, the average outer slope of the density profiles, \beta (\rho\propto r^{-\beta}), of isolated haloes is \approx 2.9; 68% of these haloes have values of \beta between 2.5 and 3.8. Haloes in dense environments of clusters are more concentrated and exhibit a broad distribution of \beta with values larger than for isolated haloes . Contrary to what one may expect, the haloes contained within groups and galaxy systems are less concentrated and have flatter outer density profiles than the isolated haloes. The concentration decreases with M_h, but its scatter for a given mass is substantial. The mass and circular velocity of the haloes are strongly correlated: M_h \propto V_m^{\alpha} with \alpha ~ 3.3 (isolated) and ~3.5 (haloes in clusters). For M_h=10^12M_sun the rms deviations from these relations are \Delta logM_h=0.12 and 0.18, respectively. Approximately 30% of the haloes are contained within larger haloes or have massive companions (larger than ~0.3 the mass of the current halo) within 3 virial radii. The remaining 70% of the haloes are isolated objects. The distribution of \beta as well as the concentration-mass and M_h-V_m relations for the isolated haloes agree very well with the predictions of our seminumerical approach which is based on a generalization of the secondary infall model and on the extended Press-Schechter formalism.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures included, uses mn.sty, accepted by MNRAS. Minor modifications, new and updated reference

How Do Galaxies Get Their Gas?

Not the way one might have thought. In hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation, some gas follows the traditionally envisioned route, shock heating to the halo virial temperature before cooling to the much lower temperature of the neutral ISM. But most gas enters galaxies without ever heating close to the virial temperature, gaining thermal energy from weak shocks and adiabatic compression, and radiating it just as quickly. This ``cold mode'' accretion is channeled along filaments, while the conventional, ``hot mode'' accretion is quasi-spherical. Cold mode accretion dominates high redshift growth by a substantial factor, while at z<1 the overall accretion rate declines and hot mode accretion has greater relative importance. The decline of the cosmic star formation rate at low z is driven largely by geometry, as the typical cross section of filaments begins to exceed that of the galaxies at their intersections.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure. To be published in the proceedings of the IGM/Galaxy Connection- The Distribution of Baryons at z=0 conferenc

The glial growth factors deficiency and synaptic destabilization hypothesis of schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: A systems approach to understanding the etiology of schizophrenia requires a theory which is able to integrate genetic as well as neurodevelopmental factors. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: Based on a co-localization of loci approach and a large amount of circumstantial evidence, we here propose that a functional deficiency of glial growth factors and of growth factors produced by glial cells are among the distal causes in the genotype-to-phenotype chain leading to the development of schizophrenia. These factors include neuregulin, insulin-like growth factor I, insulin, epidermal growth factor, neurotrophic growth factors, erbB receptors, phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase, growth arrest specific genes, neuritin, tumor necrosis factor alpha, glutamate, NMDA and cholinergic receptors. A genetically and epigenetically determined low baseline of glial growth factor signaling and synaptic strength is expected to increase the vulnerability for additional reductions (e.g., by viruses such as HHV-6 and JC virus infecting glial cells). This should lead to a weakening of the positive feedback loop between the presynaptic neuron and its targets, and below a certain threshold to synaptic destabilization and schizophrenia. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Supported by informed conjectures and empirical facts, the hypothesis makes an attractive case for a large number of further investigations. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: The hypothesis suggests glial cells as the locus of the genes-environment interactions in schizophrenia, with glial asthenia as an important factor for the genetic liability to the disorder, and an increase of prolactin and/or insulin as possible working mechanisms of traditional and atypical neuroleptic treatments

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Worldwide trends in population-based survival for children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia, by subtype, during 2000–14 (CONCORD-3) : analysis of individual data from 258 cancer registries in 61 countries

Background Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0–14 years) and adults (aged 15–99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000–14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0–24 years). Methods We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0–14 years), adolescents (15–19 years), and young adults (20–24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. Findings 164563 young people were included in this analysis: 121328 (73·7%) children, 22963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010–14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010–14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000–14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. Interpretation This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group.peer-reviewe

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000–2014 (CONCORD-3)

Background: Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology. Methods: We analyzed individual data for adults (15–99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000–2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. Results: The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010–2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%–38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000–2004 and 2005–2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40–70 years than among younger adults. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines