Towards Automatic Forecasting: Evaluation of Time-Series Forecasting Models for Chickenpox Cases Estimation in Hungary

Time-Series Forecasting is a powerful data modeling discipline that analyzes historical observations to predict future values of a time-series. It has been utilized in numerous applications, including but not limited to economics, meteorology, and health. In this paper, we use time-series forecasting techniques to model and predict the future incidence of chickenpox. To achieve this, we implement and simulate multiple models and data preprocessing techniques on a Hungary-collected dataset. We demonstrate that the LSTM model outperforms all other models in the vast majority of the experiments in terms of county-level forecasting, whereas the SARIMAX model performs best at the national level. We also demonstrate that the performance of the traditional data preprocessing method is inferior to that of the data preprocessing method that we have proposed

A topological classification of convex bodies

The shape of homogeneous, generic, smooth convex bodies as described by the Euclidean distance with nondegenerate critical points, measured from the center of mass represents a rather restricted class M_C of Morse-Smale functions on S^2. Here we show that even M_C exhibits the complexity known for general Morse-Smale functions on S^2 by exhausting all combinatorial possibilities: every 2-colored quadrangulation of the sphere is isomorphic to a suitably represented Morse-Smale complex associated with a function in M_C (and vice versa). We prove our claim by an inductive algorithm, starting from the path graph P_2 and generating convex bodies corresponding to quadrangulations with increasing number of vertices by performing each combinatorially possible vertex splitting by a convexity-preserving local manipulation of the surface. Since convex bodies carrying Morse-Smale complexes isomorphic to P_2 exist, this algorithm not only proves our claim but also generalizes the known classification scheme in [36]. Our expansion algorithm is essentially the dual procedure to the algorithm presented by Edelsbrunner et al. in [21], producing a hierarchy of increasingly coarse Morse-Smale complexes. We point out applications to pebble shapes.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

TGF-beta(2)- and H2O2-Induced Biological Changes in Optic Nerve Head Astrocytes Are Reduced by the Antioxidant Alpha-Lipoic Acid

Background/Aims: The goal of the present study was to determine whether transforming growth factor-beta(2) (TGF-beta(2))- and oxidative stress-induced cellular changes in cultured human optic nerve head (ONH) astrocytes could be reduced by pretreatment with the antioxidant alpha-lipoic acid (LA). Methods: Cultured ONH astrocytes were treated with 1.0 ng/ml TGF-beta(2) for 24 h or 200 mu M hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) for 1 h. Lipid peroxidation was measured by a decrease in cis-pari-naric acid fluorescence. Additionally, cells were pretreated with different concentrations of LA before TGF-beta 2 or H2O2 exposure. Expressions of the heat shock protein (Hsp) alpha B-crystallin and Hsp27, the extracellular matrix (ECM) component fibronectin and the ECM-modulating protein connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) were examined with immunohistochemistry and real-time PCR analysis. Results: Both TGF-beta(2) and H2O2 increased lipid peroxidation. Treatment of astrocytes with TGF-beta(2) and H2O2 upregulated the expression of alpha B-crystallin, Hsp27, fibronectin and CTGF. Pretreatment with different concentrations of LA reduced the TGF-beta(2)- and H2O2-stimulated gene expressions. Conclusion: We showed that TGF-beta(2)- and H2O2-stimulated gene expressions could be prevented by pretreatment with the antioxidant LA in cultured human ONH astrocytes. Therefore, it is tempting to speculate that the use of antioxidants could have protective effects in glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Mechanisms explaining transitions between tonic and phasic firing in neuronal populations as predicted by a low dimensional firing rate model

Several firing patterns experimentally observed in neural populations have been successfully correlated to animal behavior. Population bursting, hereby regarded as a period of high firing rate followed by a period of quiescence, is typically observed in groups of neurons during behavior. Biophysical membrane-potential models of single cell bursting involve at least three equations. Extending such models to study the collective behavior of neural populations involves thousands of equations and can be very expensive computationally. For this reason, low dimensional population models that capture biophysical aspects of networks are needed. \noindent The present paper uses a firing-rate model to study mechanisms that trigger and stop transitions between tonic and phasic population firing. These mechanisms are captured through a two-dimensional system, which can potentially be extended to include interactions between different areas of the nervous system with a small number of equations. The typical behavior of midbrain dopaminergic neurons in the rodent is used as an example to illustrate and interpret our results. \noindent The model presented here can be used as a building block to study interactions between networks of neurons. This theoretical approach may help contextualize and understand the factors involved in regulating burst firing in populations and how it may modulate distinct aspects of behavior.Comment: 25 pages (including references and appendices); 12 figures uploaded as separate file

Quantitative assessment of the expanding complementarity between public and commercial databases of bioactive compounds

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 2004 public cheminformatic databases and their collective functionality for exploring relationships between compounds, protein sequences, literature and assay data have advanced dramatically. In parallel, commercial sources that extract and curate such relationships from journals and patents have also been expanding. This work updates a previous comparative study of databases chosen because of their bioactive content, availability of downloads and facility to select informative subsets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Where they could be calculated, extracted compounds-per-journal article were in the range of 12 to 19 but compound-per-protein counts increased with document numbers. Chemical structure filtration to facilitate standardised comparisons typically reduced source counts by between 5% and 30%. The pair-wise overlaps between 23 databases and subsets were determined, as well as changes between 2006 and 2008. While all compound sets have increased, PubChem has doubled to 14.2 million. The 2008 comparison matrix shows not only overlap but also unique content across all sources. Many of the detailed differences could be attributed to individual strategies for data selection and extraction. While there was a big increase in patent-derived structures entering PubChem since 2006, GVKBIO contains over 0.8 million unique structures from this source. Venn diagrams showed extensive overlap between compounds extracted by independent expert curation from journals by GVKBIO, WOMBAT (both commercial) and BindingDB (public) but each included unique content. In contrast, the approved drug collections from GVKBIO, MDDR (commercial) and DrugBank (public) showed surprisingly low overlap. Aggregating all commercial sources established that while 1 million compounds overlapped with PubChem 1.2 million did not.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>On the basis of chemical structure content <it>per se </it>public sources have covered an increasing proportion of commercial databases over the last two years. However, commercial products included in this study provide links between compounds and information from patents and journals at a larger scale than current public efforts. They also continue to capture a significant proportion of unique content. Our results thus demonstrate not only an encouraging overall expansion of data-supported bioactive chemical space but also that both commercial and public sources are complementary for its exploration.</p