The Contribution of Renewable Energy to a Sustainable Energy System

This report provides an overview of the main results from the scenarios analysed in the CASCADE MINTS project to assess the role of renewables in solving global and European en-ergy and environmental issues. The main conclusion is that renewable energy can make a sub-stantial contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving diversification of the European energy production portfolio, although other technologies will also be needed in order to achieve post Kyoto targets. The report outlines the impacts, costs and benefits of ambitious renewables targets for Europe in the medium term. It also presents lessons learned from taking the global perspective

Implications of technological learning on the prospects for renewable energy technologies in Europe

The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 €ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 €ct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario

The Contribution of CO2 Capture and Storage to a Sustainable Energy System

This report addresses the prospects of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies in the power sector. Based on the results of 10 advanced energy models, it provides an overview of the results of the scenarios analysed in the CASCADE MINTS project. Three policy approaches are compared in order to address the question how to achieve significant CO2 emission reductions through the application of CCS technologies. The analysis shows that CCS can provide an important contribution to mitigating climate change. Up to 30% of global CO2 emissions could be captured in 2050, while for Europe, due to a more limited growth of the power sector than in some other world regions, this would amount to some 22% of total CO2 emissions. The CCS policies not only induce the large-scale introduction of CCS systems in the electricity sector, but they also accelerate the penetration of renewable energy sources and nuclear. Policies that provide flexibility, for instance through emission trading, are more cost-effective than those obliging CCS to be installed with all new fossil power plants. Therefore, it is recommended to employ mixes of the different CO2 emission reduction options available, also depending on regional circumstances. The uncertainties, particularly in storage capacities, are large. Using conservative estimates in line with the IPCC Special Report, the CASCADE MINTS project arrives at the conclusion that the availability of storage capacity does not impose limits to the amount of CO2 stored in the time frame to 2050. Being a new technology, the actual deployment of CCS will also depend on public perception and on how legal and regulatory aspects related to risks and liabilities are addressed