Moral hazard and dynamics of insider ownership stakes

In this paper, I analyze the ownership dynamics of N strategic risk-averse corporate insiders facing a moral hazard problem. A solution for the equilibrium share price and the dynamics of the aggregate insider stake is obtained in two cases: when agents can credibly commit to an optimal ownership policy and when they cannot commit (time-consistent case). In the latter case, the aggregate stake gradually adjusts towards the competitive allocation. The speed of adjustment increases with N when outside investors are risk-averse, and does not depend on it when investors are risk-neutral. Predictions of the model are consistent with recent empirical findings.Corporate insiders, moral hazard, ownership dynamics

Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate

This paper studies drivers of daily dynamics of the nominal dinar-euro exchange rate from September 2006 to June 2010. Using a novel semiparametric approach we are able to incorporate the evidence of nonlinearities under very weak assumptions on the underlying data generating process. We identify several factors influencing daily exchange rate returns whose importance varies over time. In the period preceeding the financial crisis, information in past returns, changes in households’ foreign currency savings and banks' net purchases of foreign currency are the most significant factors. From September 2008 onwards other factors related to changes in country's risk and the information processing in the market gain importance. NBS interventions are found to be effective with a time delay.Foreign exchange market, Partially linear model, Kernel estimation

Noise and aggregation of information in large markets

We study a novel class of noisy rational expectations equilibria in markets with large number of agents. We show that, as long as noise increases with the number of agents in the economy, the limiting competitive equilibrium is well-defined and leads to non-trivial information acquisition, perfect information aggregation, and partially revealing prices, even if per capita noise tends to zero. We find that in such equilibrium risk sharing and price revelation play dierent roles than in the standard limiting economy in which per capita noise is not negligible. We apply our model to study information sales by a monopolist, information acquisition in multi-asset markets, and derivatives trading. The limiting equilibria are shown to be perfectly competitive, even when a strategic solution concept is used.Partially revealing equilibria, competitive equilibrium, rational expectations, information acquisition, markets for information, derivatives trading, multi-asset markets, share auctions

On the valuation and incentive effects of executive cash bonus contracts

Executive compensation packages are often valued in an inconsistent manner: while employee stock options (ESOs) are typically valued ex-ante, cash bonuses are valued ex-post. This renders the existing valuation models of employee compensation packages theoretically unsatisfactory and, potentially, empirically distortive. In this paper, we propose an option-based framework for ex-ante valuation of cash bonus contracts. After obtaining closed-form expressions for ex-ante values of several frequently used types of bonus contracts, we utilize them to explore the e¤ects that the shape of a bonus contract has on the executive’s attitude toward risk-taking. We, also, study pay-performance sensitivity of such contracts. We show that the terms of a bonus contract can dramatically impact both risk-taking behavior as well as pay-performance incentives. Several testable predictions are made, and venues of future research outlined.Executive compensation, cash bonus, incentives, risk-taking behavior

Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrele- vance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogenously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a conse- quence the overconfidence bias does not affect informational efficiency, price volatility, ra- tional traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price informativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overcon- fident. The main intuition of the paper, if not the irrelevance result, is shown to be robust to different model specifications.partially revealing equilibria, overconfidence, rational expectations, information acquisition, price informativeness.

Primal-dual variable neighborhood search for the simple plant-location problem

Copyright @ 2007 INFORMSThe variable neighborhood search metaheuristic is applied to the primal simple plant-location problem and to a reduced dual obtained by exploiting the complementary slackness conditions. This leads to (i) heuristic resolution of (metric) instances with uniform fixed costs, up to n = 15,000 users, and m = n potential locations for facilities with an error not exceeding 0.04%; (ii) exact solution of such instances with up to m = n = 7,000; and (iii) exact solutions of instances with variable fixed costs and up to m = n = 15, 000.This work is supported by NSERC Grant 105574-02; NSERC Grant OGP205041; and partly by the Serbian Ministry of Science, Project 1583

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders’ expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.Partially revealing equilibria, overconfidence, rational expectations, information

Seismic processing, inversion, and AVO for gold exploration: Case study from Western Australia

We investigate the potential of using high-resolution seismic methods for rock characterization and for targeting of gold deposits at the St. Ives gold camp. The application of seismic methods in hard-rock environments is challenged by complex structures, intrinsically low signal-to-noise ratio, regolith distortions, and access restrictions. If these issues can be addressed, then the unparalleled resolving power of reflection seismic can be used for mineral exploration. Appropriate spatial sampling of the wavefield combined with a survey geometry design and rigorous data processing to incorporate high fold and long offsets are necessary for creation of high-quality seismic images. In the hard-rock environment of Western Australia, accurate static corrections and multiphase velocity analysis are essential processing steps. This is followed by a rigorous quality control following each processing step. In such a case, we show that the role of reflection seismic could be lifted from mere identification of first-order structures to refined lithological analyses. Five deep boreholes with sonic logs and core sample test data were used to calibrate 2D seismic images. Despite seismic images were produced with relatively robust scaling it was possible to achieve reasonably high seismic-log correlation across three of the tightly spaced boreholes using a single composite wavelet. Amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) analysis indicated that gold-bearing structures may be related to elevated AVO effect and increased reflectivity. Consequently, partial stack analysis and acoustic and elastic inversions were conducted. These results and impedance crossplots were then evaluated against known gold occurrences. While still in the preliminary stages, hard-rock seismic imaging, inversion, and the application of AVO techniques indicated significant potential for targeting mineral reserves