4,336 research outputs found

    Complementarities of Probabilistic and Evidence Approaches: An Uncertainty Assessment for Selection of Composite Material

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    A complimentary probabilistic and evidence theory approach is utilized to enhance uncertainty assessments in the area of critical safety characteristics for conceptual design. This research provides additional exploration into the failure modes necessary to utilize Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) and various composites to their fullest potential and to minimize uncertainty by comparing probability and evidence theories. This combined approach has been applied to a selection of composite material that could provide uncertainty assessment design for a space transportation system. Uncertainty estimates presented are bounded by belief and plausibility functions. The results may provide additional information to the decision makers in critical system safety and uncertainty assessments. Benefits and limitations are discussed

    Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

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    Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

    Perforated Hepatic Hydatid Cyst into the Peritoneum with Mild Symptoms

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    Rupture into the abdominal cavity is a rare but serious complication of hydatid disease that necessitates emergency surgical intervention. We present herein a case with mild abdominal symptoms due to hydatid cyst rupture into the peritoneum after trauma. A 24-year-old man was admitted to the emergency room with mild abdominal pain. His symptoms had started after a fall four days earlier. Ultrasonography and computed tomography showed cystic lesions in the liver and peritoneum with intraabdominal free fluid. He was treated surgically with partial cystectomy and falciformoplasty. Postoperative albendazole therapy was given for two months. There was not recurrence four months postoperatively at control computed tomography
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