Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (in ation and interest rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifes strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 percent in terms of the interquartile range). Disagreement about nominal variables rises with their level, has fallen after 1998 or so (by 30 percent), and is considerably lower under independent central banks (by 35 percent). Cross-sectional dispersion for both groups increases with uncertainty about the underlying actual indicators, though to a lesser extent for nominal series. Countryby- country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables tend to be larger in Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. These findings suggest that more credible monetary policy can substantially contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its eects on disagreement about real variables are moderate.disagreement, survey expectations, monetary policy, forecasting

Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifies strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 percent in terms of the interquartile range). Disagreement about nominal variables rises with their level, has fallen after 1998 or so (by 30 percent), and is considerably lower under independent central banks (by 35 percent). Cross-sectional dispersion for both groups increases with uncertainty about the underlying actual indicators, though to a lesser extent for nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables tend to be larger in Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. These findings suggest that more credible monetary policy can substantially contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52, C53disagreement, forecasting, monetary policy, survey expectations

Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months. JEL Classification: E62, H20, H50, H62inflation expectations, Inflation persistence, Phillips curve, sticky information

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months.Inflation expectations, sticky information, Phillips curve, inflation persistence

The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Our baseline stationary estimation suggests that the average frequency of information updating for the European households is roughly once in 18 months. The vector error-correction model implies households update information about once a year.Inflation expectations, sticky information, inflation persistence

A practical synthesis of Rho-Kinase inhibitor Y-27632 and fluoro derivatives and their evaluation in human pluripotent stem cells

A practical synthesis of the Rho-Kinase inhibitor Y-27632 and two new fluoro derivatives was achieved in seven steps and with a good overall yield of 45% starting from commercially available (R)-1-phenylethylamine. Compared to Y-27632 the new fluoro derivatives showed reduced or no effect on hPSC vitality and expansion after dissociation in human pluripotent stem cells. © 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry

Revisiting internal gravity waves analysis using GPS RO density profiles: comparison with temperature profiles and application for wave field stability study

We revise selected findings regarding the utilization of Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS RO) density profiles for the analysis of internal gravity waves (IGW), introduced by Sacha et al. (2014). Using various GPS RO datasets, we show that the differences in the IGW spectra between the dry-temperature and dry-density profiles that were described in the previous study as a general issue are in fact present in one specific data version only. The differences between perturbations in the temperature and density GPS RO profiles do not have any physical origin, and there is not the information loss of IGW activity that was suggested in Sacha et al. (2014). We investigate the previously discussed question of the temperature perturbations character when utilizing GPS RO dry-temperature profiles, derived by integration of the hydrostatic balance. Using radiosonde profiles as a proxy for GPS RO, we provide strong evidence that the differences in IGW perturbations between the real and retrieved temperature profiles (which are based on the assumption of hydrostatic balance) include a significant nonhydrostatic component that is present sporadically and might be either positive or negative. The detected differences in related spectra of IGW temperature perturbations are found to be mostly about ±10 %. The paper also presents a detailed study on the utilization of GPS RO density profiles for the characterization of the wave field stability. We have analyzed selected stability parameters derived from the density profiles together with a study of the vertical rotation of the wind direction. Regarding the Northern Hemisphere the results point to the western border of the Aleutian high, where potential IGW breaking is detected. These findings are also supported by an analysis of temperature and wind velocity profiles. Our results confirm advantages of the utilization of the density profiles for IGW analysis.Grantová Agentura České Republiky | Ref. 16-01562JMinisterstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy | Ref. 7AMB16AT021OeAD-GmbH | Ref. CZ 06/2016Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. CGL2015-71575-

Parallel symbolic state-space exploration is difficult, but what is the alternative?

State-space exploration is an essential step in many modeling and analysis problems. Its goal is to find the states reachable from the initial state of a discrete-state model described. The state space can used to answer important questions, e.g., "Is there a dead state?" and "Can N become negative?", or as a starting point for sophisticated investigations expressed in temporal logic. Unfortunately, the state space is often so large that ordinary explicit data structures and sequential algorithms cannot cope, prompting the exploration of (1) parallel approaches using multiple processors, from simple workstation networks to shared-memory supercomputers, to satisfy large memory and runtime requirements and (2) symbolic approaches using decision diagrams to encode the large structured sets and relations manipulated during state-space generation. Both approaches have merits and limitations. Parallel explicit state-space generation is challenging, but almost linear speedup can be achieved; however, the analysis is ultimately limited by the memory and processors available. Symbolic methods are a heuristic that can efficiently encode many, but not all, functions over a structured and exponentially large domain; here the pitfalls are subtler: their performance varies widely depending on the class of decision diagram chosen, the state variable order, and obscure algorithmic parameters. As symbolic approaches are often much more efficient than explicit ones for many practical models, we argue for the need to parallelize symbolic state-space generation algorithms, so that we can realize the advantage of both approaches. This is a challenging endeavor, as the most efficient symbolic algorithm, Saturation, is inherently sequential. We conclude by discussing challenges, efforts, and promising directions toward this goal

Molecular Signatures of the Primitive Prostate Stem Cell Niche Reveal Novel Mesenchymal-Epithelial Signaling Pathways

Signals between stem cells and stroma are important in establishing the stem cell niche. However, very little is known about the regulation of any mammalian stem cell niche as pure isolates of stem cells and their adjacent mesenchyme are not readily available. The prostate offers a unique model to study signals between stem cells and their adjacent stroma as in the embryonic prostate stem cell niche, the urogenital sinus mesenchyme is easily separated from the epithelial stem cells. Here we investigate the distinctive molecular signals of these two stem cell compartments in a mammalian system.We isolated fetal murine urogenital sinus epithelium and urogenital sinus mesenchyme and determined their differentially expressed genes. To distinguish transcripts that are shared by other developing epithelial/mesenchymal compartments from those that pertain to the prostate stem cell niche, we also determined the global gene expression of epidermis and dermis of the same embryos. Our analysis indicates that several of the key transcriptional components that are predicted to be active in the embryonic prostate stem cell niche regulate processes such as self-renewal (e.g., E2f and Ap2), lipid metabolism (e.g., Srebp1) and cell migration (e.g., Areb6 and Rreb1). Several of the enriched promoter binding motifs are shared between the prostate epithelial/mesenchymal compartments and their epidermis/dermis counterparts, indicating their likely relevance in epithelial/mesenchymal signaling in primitive cellular compartments. Based on differential gene expression we also defined ligand-receptor interactions that may be part of the molecular interplay of the embryonic prostate stem cell niche.We provide a comprehensive description of the transcriptional program of the major regulators that are likely to control the cellular interactions in the embryonic prostatic stem cell niche, many of which may be common to mammalian niches in general. This study provides a comprehensive source for further studies of mesenchymal/epithelial interactions in the prostate stem cell niche. The elucidation of pathways in the normal primitive niche may provide greater insight into mechanisms subverted during abnormal proliferative and oncogenic processes. Understanding these events may result in the development of specific targeted therapies for prostatic diseases such as benign prostatic hypertrophy and carcinomas