Trade and Competitiveness Between Turkey and the EU: Time Series Evidence

The paper basically aims to clarify the level of price competitiveness of the Turkish firms towards the EU Single Market in aggregate level. Thus it naturally examines the demand for exports and imports for Turkey in relation to the EU. In order to model the trade between Turkey and the EU, we employ a time series analysis, namely cointegration method with error correction and causality mechanisms, for the period 1963-2002. The paper also deals with the possible effects of factors such as structural breaks, integration of markets, product innovation, supply, and omitted variables as regards the significance and the magnitude of the income and price elasticities. In the light of our empirical findings, some policy implications are drawn.trade, competitiveness, income and price elasticities, EU, Turkey, time series modeling, cointegration

Ticari ve Finansal Dýþa Açýklýk Türkiye’de Büyümeyi Ne Yönde Etkiledi?

Ülkelerin ticari ve finansal dýþa açýklýðýnýn artmasý büyüme hýzýný ne yönde etkilemektedir? Dýþa açýklýðýn artmasý büyümeyi artýrmakta mýdýr, yoksa zayýflatmakta mýdýr? Dahasý, dýþa açýklýðý yüksek olan bir ekonomi dýþ þoklar / krizler karþýsýnda krizi kolaylaþtýran ve derinleþtiren bir deðiþken midir? Yoksa yüksek dýþa açýklýk olasý bir dýþ þokun / krizin atlatýlmasýnda makroekonomik uyumu kolaylaþtýrýcý bir faktör müdür? Bu çalýþmada Türkiye ekonomisinin ticari ve finansal açýklýðýnýn büyüme üzerine ve kriz ortamýna sürüklenmesindeki etkileri 1990-2004 dönemi için ampirik olarak ortaya konulmuþtur. Kullanýlan ampirik yöntemler bir biri ile baðlantýlý olan iki farklý yöntemdir: i) doðrusal olmayan zaman serisi (TAR ve STAR) modellemesi, ii) Markow rejim deðiþimi modellemesi. Finansal ve ticari açýklýðýn Türkiye ekonomisini özellikle dýþ þoklara karþý zayýflatan mý, yoksa güçlendiren bir etken mi olup olmadýðý da bu yöntemlerle sýnanmýþtýr. Bulgulara göre Türkiye’de finansal açýklýk ekonominin sürekli olarak resesyonda kalmasýna neden olurken, ticari açýklýk büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilemiþtir. Ancak finansal açýklýk ticari açýklýðýn büyüme üzerindeki olumlu etkilerini azaltarak negatif refah etkisi yaratmýþtýr.

Turkey’s Competitiveness in the EU Market: a Comparison of Different Trade Measures

The paper basically explores the competitiveness of the Turkish industries in the EU Market by employing different trade measures such as the Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA), Vollrath’s Revealed Competitiveness Index, GrubelLloyd Index, and Brülhart B Marginal Intra-Industry Trade Index. The main drawback of the existing empirical literature is that various RCA indices are widely used to explain the competitiveness of a country. This paper however not only focuses on various RCA indices but some additional and complementary measures of competitiveness are also applied since they underline different aspects/dimensions of competitiveness. Consistency of the results of various trade measures are then compared by using the Sperman Rank Correlation and Kruskal Wallis tests. Based on the empirical results,some policy implications are drawn

Are the Turkish External Deficits Sustainable? Evidence from the Cointegrating Relationship Between Exports and Imports

This paper aims to understand the recent history of Turkish external imbalances by examining the long-run tendency of the Turkish trade balance. The size of the Turkish external deficits especially during the 1990s has worried politicians, academicians and the general public. Following recent work in the field, the paper examines the sustainability of the external deficits in the long-run by employing the cointegration framework

A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Export on Economic Growth of ECOWAS Countries

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