Potato demand in an increasingly organic marketplace

The authors investigate pricing and demand issues for four fresh potato categories (russet, red, white, and minor colored), organic fresh potatoes, and two processed potato categories (frozen|refrigerated and dehydrated) using a nonlinear generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS) that is closed under unit scaling (CUUS). The model used regionally aggregated at-home consumption data from 2000 to 2005. Estimated uncompensated own price elasticities for fresh potatoes were highly significant and ranged between −0.5 and −1.6. The study was designed to capture the effects of the aggregate organic market on the prices, expenditures, and demand for each potato category. Organic food market penetration elasticities suggest that specialty potatoes (organic and minor-colored) are particularly well positioned if demands for organic products continue to rise, red potatoes are not well positioned and evidence of the early warning signs of slippage in market share for white and russet potatoes may exist. Producers and promoters of conventional potato products should account for the increasingly important role of organic products in making decisions. As an auxiliary exercise, we also statistically sourced the variance of the organic potato price premium relative to the other four fresh potato prices. At the present time, the variability of the organic potato premium is not much affected by production costs or other supply-related factors: the premium variability was driven largely by demand, and demographic|seasonal factors. Producers should be cautious about shifting to organic potato production until lower cost practices emerge. [JEL Codes: D120, Q130, Q180]. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

A farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of pork-borne salmonellosis in humans: Lessons for risk ranking

A food systems perspective offers many appealing analytic features to food safety researchers with an interest in the design and targeting of effective and efficient policy responses to the risks posed by foodborne pathogens. These features include the ability to examine comparative questions such as whether it is more efficient to target food safety interventions on-farm or in the food processing plant. Using the example of a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of Salmonella in the pork production and consumption system, the authors argue the feasibility of such a food systems approach for food-safety risk assessment and policy analysis. They present an overview of the farm-to-fork model and highlight key assumptions and methods employed. Lessons from their experience in constructing a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model are derived for consideration in other food safety risk assessment efforts and for researchers interested in developing “best practice” benchmarks in the area of food safety risk assessments. [EconLit Citations: Q18, I18, I12]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 157-172, 2007.