Conflict and counterinsurgency aid: Drawing sectoral distinctions

We examine the impact of counterinsurgency aid on conflict in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2009. To enable this analysis we combine unique aid project data from NATO, household data from the Afghan government, and conflict data from US government sources. Our panel data analysis accounts for district and time period fixed effects across 398 districts and 57 months. Projects in the health sector successfully promote stability, whereas those in the education sector actually provoke conflict. Our findings are robust to reverse causation, confounding aid programs, and other sources of endogeneity. The results shed new perspective on the ‘hearts and minds’ theory commonly discussed in this vein of inquiry

Abuse of power and conflict persistence in Afghanistan

The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan presents a paradox. While international efforts to stabilise the country have been steadily increasing since 2001, the same period has been marked by a return to violence and constant escalation of the conflict. The Taliban's growing strength is often attributed to the weakness of the Afghan state in extending authority and delivering public goods. Less attention has been paid to the ways in which power and authority are exercised and experienced in Afghanistan. In the current system of governance, abuse of power has become endemic and has emerged as a major driver of persistent conflict. This paper examines some of the key actors and forms of abuse and identifies a set of mechanisms by which abuse of power stimulates conflict persistence