Barriers to build asset adaptation in private service sector

It is becoming increasingly acknowledged that adaptation and mitigation are equally important and often interrelated approaches to climate change. Recent adaptation initiatives in the UK include the promotion of many policies, reporting and economic support in the public sector. However, adaptation in the private sector still lacks such structured initiative and is initiated largely in response to external forces. This paper presents a review of UK-based adaptation initiatives and presents a study of the adaptation decisionmaking process for the built assets of a large private sector organisation. The study was undertaken as a part of a PhD research programme that evaluated the usefulness of the UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making Framework as well as the UKCIP 02 climate change projections for facilities management decision-making. The decision-making framework and projections were used by a group of facilities personnel responsible for built asset management to explore various climate risks and develop adaptation solutions. The paper reports on issues associated with implementing the first three stages of the decision-making framework, in particular the problems faced by facilities management professionals in operationalising the risks and evaluating solutions. The following findings were drawn. A) Adaptation in the private sector is initiated against an external change or signal, for example market forces or experience of a climate-related extreme event. B) For many built asset professionals the transformation of scientific climate change data into impacts on their built asset is a demanding task in terms of required knowledge and time. This process is further complicated by the long time horizon (30 years) associated with climate projections compared to the short time horizon (5-10 years) for strategic business decisions, and the uncertainty attached to climate change projections. C) As a result of (B), much of the analysis for decisionmaking remains qualitative and semi-quantitative and lacks gravitas when hard financial decisions have to be made. D) The perception and attitude of managerial and strategic decision-making personnel towards climate change shapes the decision-making process and adaptation option selection. E) Adaptive capacity, in terms of the time, finance and expertise available to organisations is important to achieving successful adaptation goals. Although, the new UKCP09 projections have been made available since the completion of the study, many of the findings are generic in nature and directly applicable to these new tools. In conclusion, by conceptualising the observed adaptation process with that of organisation learning, it is suggested that literature on organisation learning is likely to provide an effective basis for understanding and promoting the adaptation in the private sector

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather conditions were very different to what they are today. Most are based on samples collected at weekly or fortnightly intervals and cannot quantify the effects of short-term, more extreme, variations in the weather. In this article, the author presents some examples to show the importance of developing new monitoring methods using case studies from a number of lakes in the English Lake District. The impact of year-to-year changes and short-term changes on the dynamics of of lakes are highlighted

MCDM을 활용한 물관리 부문 기후변화 적응정책 우선순위 선정

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 농업생명과학대학 생태조경·지역시스템공학부(생태조경학), 2020. 8. 이동근.When establishing the climate adaptation planning, policy priority should be set for each sector based on the results of the synthesized analysis of climate change impact or vulnerability. No consensus on the uncertainty of climate change, and different interests make difficulties in selecting priorities. Decision-making methodologies used for climate change adaptation should be flexible as priorities vary greatly depending on stakeholder composition or adaptation options changes. Meanwhile, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), is used to evaluate objects with various aspects, distinguishes between characteristics of options through conflicting indicators. TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), one of the MCDM methods, evaluates the closeness of a hypothetical optimal alternative. By using this method, it is possible to reflect the personal characteristics of the respondents as much as possible, have less problems of ranking reversal, and have the advantage of judging the difference/similarity between alternatives, which can be a useful evaluation method for climate adaptation planning. In this study, expert group including municipalities and civic organizations were formed as a governance, and trustworthy adaptation policy priorities were derived via the evaluation results of the governance. A total of 65 experts participated in the questionnaire, and specifically, the governments and local government officials participating in the decision-making process, academic researchers who derive and interpret scientific results, and general citizens participated in the decision-making process. Most of the survey participants consisted of experts with over 10 years of experience in climate change adaptation management. Since different priority results can be generated for each group using TOPSIS, the method provides flexible priority, not one best priority. This method will allow decision-makers to expand their choices not only at the national level but also at the local level by adjusting the settings to suit the region. Priority results were presented for the 21 adaptation options derived for the water management sector, and the results are interpreted as relative closeness values. This study confirmed that selecting priorities in the adaptation requires a prioritizing method that can function flexibly according to the needs of decision makers. It also suggested how assessment indicators should be constructed appropriate for climate change adaptation and evaluation of adaptation options. From within-sector adaptation to external effects of climate change, indicators have been constructed to reflect how urgent it is in terms of policy feasibility. As a result of the survey, the priority of drought strategies such as Industrial, agricultural water demand management, Groundwater resource management, and Expansion of sewage reuse was high in the water management sector, followed by flood and water ecosystem strategies such as Build flood safety system at development stage and Water safety plan. While the results produced are only an example, the reliability and validity of the process can be improved by referring to these results in the decision-making process. It can be helpful in the planning process in that uncertain information can be assessed with limited resources, and the consistency of the process can be provided, and it can be used as a more useful way to link weighting methods with scientific data, such as impact assessment results in the future.기후변화 적응계획의 수립 시에는 기후변화 영향 또는 취약성에 대한 종합 분석 결과에 따라 각 부문의 정책 우선순위를 설정해야 한다. 기후변화에 대한 불확실성, 그리고 서로 다른 이해관계로 인하여 우선순위를 결정하는 것은 쉽지 않은 작업이다. 더하여 기후변화 적응에 사용되기 위한 의사결정 방식은 이해관계자의 구성 변화 혹은 정책 변경에 유연하게 대처할 수 있어야 한다. 한편, 다기준 의사결정 방법론(Multi-criteria decision-making; MCDM)은 여러 측면에서 대상을 평가하고 서로 다른 성격의 지표를 통해서 평가 대상을 구별하는 데에 사용된다. MCDM의 하나인 이상 해(解) 유사성 선호 기법(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution; TOPSIS)은 가상의 최적 대안과의 근접도를 평가한다. 이는 개별 응답자의 개인 특성이 반영되면서도 순위 반전 문제를 피할 수 있으며, 대안 간의 차이와 유사성을 판단할 수 있어 기후 적응 분야에서 유용하게 사용될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 지방자치단체와 시민단체를 포함한 전문가 집단이 거버넌스를 구성하였으며, 이들의 설문 응답을 통해 신뢰할 수 있는 적응정책 우선순위를 도출하였다. TOPSIS를 사용하여 거버넌스의 각 그룹에서 서로 다른 우선순위 결과가 생성되며, 이 방법은 하나의 최선 해(解)를 제공하는 것이 아니라 여러 대안의 우선순위 옵션을 제시한다. 본 연구를 통해 의사결정자는 지역 조건에 맞는 설정이 가능하며, 국가 수준에서의 우선순위만 아니라 지역 수준에서도 선택 가능한 영역으로 확장될 수 있다. 물관리 부문에 대해서 도출된 21개의 적응 옵션에 대해서 우선순위를 도출하였으며, 결과값은 상대적인 closeness 값으로 도출된다. 본 연구에서, 적응 분야에서 우선순위를 선정하는 데에는 의사결정자의 요구에 따라 탄력적으로 기능할 수 있는 우선순위 선정 방법이 필요하다는 점을 확인하였다. 그리고 기후변화 적응과 적응옵션 평가에 적합한 평가지표를 어떻게 구성해야 하는지를 제시하였다. 작게는 부문 내 적응에서부터 기후변화 외적인 효과까지 고려해야 하며, 정책타당성 측면에서 얼마나 시급한지도 반영할 수 있는 지표를 구성하였다. 설문지 조사에 따른 우선순위 도출 결과 물관리 부문에서는 산업/농업 수자원 수요 관리, 지하수자원관리, 하수 재이용 확대 등 가뭄정책의 우선순위가 높게 나타났으며, 침수안전 확보 체계 구축, 물 안전 계획 등의 홍수와 수생태계 정책이 그 뒤를 따랐다. 도출된 결과는 하나의 예시일 뿐이지만, 의사결정 과정에서 이러한 결과를 참고하여 과정의 신뢰성과 타당성을 향상시킬 수 있다. 자원이 제한되어 있는 상태에서 불확실한 정보를 평가할 수 있고, 그 과정의 정합성을 제공할 수 있다는 점에서 계획 과정에서 도움이 될 수 있으며, 향후 가중치 부여 방식 등을 영향평가 결과 등 과학적 데이터와 연계한다면 더욱 유용한 방법으로 활용될 수 있다.Chapter 1. Introduction １ 1.1. Study Background １ 1.2. Purpose of Research ３ Chapter 2. Literature Review ５ Chapter 3. Methodology ９ 3.1. Constructing Evaluation Criteria and a List of Adaptation Options in the Sector ９ 3.2. Obtaining Stakeholder Opinion and Conducting the Policy Evaluation Questionnaire １５ 3.3. Choosing a Method to Synthesize Responses Determining the Final Priority １７ Chapter 4. Results ２１ 4.1. List of Adaptation Options in the Water Management Sector ２１ 4.2. Adaptation Options Priority Result in Water Management Sector ２２ Chapter 5. Discussion ２８ 5.1. Prioritization method suitable for climate change adaptation governance ２８ 5.2. Proper criteria for evaluating adaptation options priority ３０ 5.3. Discussion on the results of prioritization and key priority options ３１ Chapter 6. Conclusion ３３ Bibliography ３６ Abstract in Korean ４５ Appendix ４８Maste

Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008)

There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required

The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies

Irrigation demand modelling using the UKCP09 weather generator: lessons learned

The determination of irrigation demand is typically based on crop modelling using a long historic record of local daily weather data. However, there are rarely adequate weather station records near to given sites; often any local records cover a limited number of years, are incomplete, costly or are of poor quality. This paper examines whether version 1 of the UKCP09 weather generator can provide a simpler and effective method of calculating irrigation demand with sufficient accuracy for regulatory and design purposes. The irrigation demands at seven sites distributed around England were modelled using the UKCP09 baseline climatology and compared with results modelled using daily observed weather records. For the design dry year used for irrigation planning, the weather generator replicated the observed conditions with reasonable accuracy. The weather generator was however less successful at replicating extreme dry years. These results are encouraging but also provide a note of caution for the use of these generated datasets for studying current irrigation demand and by implication for modelling future needs under climate change. The study also demonstrated a simple sub-sampling approach for reducing the processing demands if using the dataset in more complex models, though this would not remove any underlying error