318 research outputs found
Impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture: an adaptation framework and case study for Ningxia
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Barriers to build asset adaptation in private service sector
It is becoming increasingly acknowledged that adaptation and mitigation are equally important and often interrelated approaches to climate change. Recent adaptation initiatives in the UK include the promotion of many policies, reporting and economic support in the public sector. However, adaptation in the private sector still lacks such structured initiative and is initiated largely in response to external forces.
This paper presents a review of UK-based adaptation initiatives and presents a study of the adaptation decisionmaking process for the built assets of a large private sector organisation. The study was undertaken as a part of a PhD research programme that evaluated the usefulness of the UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making Framework as well as the UKCIP 02 climate change projections for facilities management decision-making. The
decision-making framework and projections were used by a group of facilities personnel responsible for built asset management to explore various climate risks and develop adaptation solutions. The paper reports on issues associated with implementing the first three stages of the decision-making framework, in particular the problems faced by facilities management professionals in operationalising the risks and evaluating solutions. The following findings were drawn.
A) Adaptation in the private sector is initiated against an external change or signal, for example market forces or experience of a climate-related extreme event. B) For many built asset professionals the transformation of scientific climate change data into impacts on their built asset is a demanding task in terms of required knowledge and time. This process is further complicated by the long time horizon (30 years) associated with climate projections compared to the short time horizon (5-10 years) for strategic business decisions, and the uncertainty attached to climate change projections. C) As a result of (B), much of the analysis for decisionmaking remains qualitative and semi-quantitative and lacks gravitas when hard financial decisions have to be made. D) The perception and attitude of managerial and strategic decision-making personnel towards climate change shapes the decision-making process and adaptation option selection. E) Adaptive capacity, in terms of the time, finance and expertise available to organisations is important to achieving successful adaptation goals. Although, the new UKCP09 projections have been made available since the completion of the study, many of the findings are generic in nature and directly applicable to these new tools. In conclusion, by conceptualising the observed adaptation process with that of organisation learning, it is suggested that literature on organisation learning is likely to provide an effective basis for understanding and promoting the adaptation in the private
sector
The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes
The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather conditions were very different to what they are today. Most are based on samples collected at weekly or fortnightly intervals and cannot quantify the effects of short-term, more extreme, variations in the weather. In this article, the author presents some examples to show the importance of developing new monitoring methods using case studies from a number of lakes in the English Lake District. The impact of year-to-year changes and short-term changes on the dynamics of of lakes are highlighted
MCDM์ ํ์ฉํ ๋ฌผ๊ด๋ฆฌ ๋ถ๋ฌธ ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ ์์ ์ฑ ์ฐ์ ์์ ์ ์
ํ์๋
ผ๋ฌธ (์์ฌ) -- ์์ธ๋ํ๊ต ๋ํ์ : ๋์
์๋ช
๊ณผํ๋ํ ์ํ์กฐ๊ฒฝยท์ง์ญ์์คํ
๊ณตํ๋ถ(์ํ์กฐ๊ฒฝํ), 2020. 8. ์ด๋๊ทผ.When establishing the climate adaptation planning, policy priority should be set for each sector based on the results of the synthesized analysis of climate change impact or vulnerability. No consensus on the uncertainty of climate change, and different interests make difficulties in selecting priorities. Decision-making methodologies used for climate change adaptation should be flexible as priorities vary greatly depending on stakeholder composition or adaptation options changes. Meanwhile, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), is used to evaluate objects with various aspects, distinguishes between characteristics of options through conflicting indicators. TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), one of the MCDM methods, evaluates the closeness of a hypothetical optimal alternative. By using this method, it is possible to reflect the personal characteristics of the respondents as much as possible, have less problems of ranking reversal, and have the advantage of judging the difference/similarity between alternatives, which can be a useful evaluation method for climate adaptation planning. In this study, expert group including municipalities and civic organizations were formed as a governance, and trustworthy adaptation policy priorities were derived via the evaluation results of the governance. A total of 65 experts participated in the questionnaire, and specifically, the governments and local government officials participating in the decision-making process, academic researchers who derive and interpret scientific results, and general citizens participated in the decision-making process. Most of the survey participants consisted of experts with over 10 years of experience in climate change adaptation management. Since different priority results can be generated for each group using TOPSIS, the method provides flexible priority, not one best priority. This method will allow decision-makers to expand their choices not only at the national level but also at the local level by adjusting the settings to suit the region. Priority results were presented for the 21 adaptation options derived for the water management sector, and the results are interpreted as relative closeness values. This study confirmed that selecting priorities in the adaptation requires a prioritizing method that can function flexibly according to the needs of decision makers. It also suggested how assessment indicators should be constructed appropriate for climate change adaptation and evaluation of adaptation options. From within-sector adaptation to external effects of climate change, indicators have been constructed to reflect how urgent it is in terms of policy feasibility. As a result of the survey, the priority of drought strategies such as Industrial, agricultural water demand management, Groundwater resource management, and Expansion of sewage reuse was high in the water management sector, followed by flood and water ecosystem strategies such as Build flood safety system at development stage and Water safety plan. While the results produced are only an example, the reliability and validity of the process can be improved by referring to these results in the decision-making process. It can be helpful in the planning process in that uncertain information can be assessed with limited resources, and the consistency of the process can be provided, and it can be used as a more useful way to link weighting methods with scientific data, such as impact assessment results in the future.๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ ์๊ณํ์ ์๋ฆฝ ์์๋ ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ํฅ ๋๋ ์ทจ์ฝ์ฑ์ ๋ํ ์ข
ํฉ ๋ถ์ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ๋ฐ๋ผ ๊ฐ ๋ถ๋ฌธ์ ์ ์ฑ
์ฐ์ ์์๋ฅผ ์ค์ ํด์ผ ํ๋ค. ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ์ ๋ํ ๋ถํ์ค์ฑ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ์๋ก ๋ค๋ฅธ ์ดํด๊ด๊ณ๋ก ์ธํ์ฌ ์ฐ์ ์์๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ ํ๋ ๊ฒ์ ์ฝ์ง ์์ ์์
์ด๋ค. ๋ํ์ฌ ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ ์์ ์ฌ์ฉ๋๊ธฐ ์ํ ์์ฌ๊ฒฐ์ ๋ฐฉ์์ ์ดํด๊ด๊ณ์์ ๊ตฌ์ฑ ๋ณํ ํน์ ์ ์ฑ
๋ณ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ์ฐํ๊ฒ ๋์ฒํ ์ ์์ด์ผ ํ๋ค. ํํธ, ๋ค๊ธฐ์ค ์์ฌ๊ฒฐ์ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ๋ก (Multi-criteria decision-making; MCDM)์ ์ฌ๋ฌ ์ธก๋ฉด์์ ๋์์ ํ๊ฐํ๊ณ ์๋ก ๋ค๋ฅธ ์ฑ๊ฒฉ์ ์งํ๋ฅผ ํตํด์ ํ๊ฐ ๋์์ ๊ตฌ๋ณํ๋ ๋ฐ์ ์ฌ์ฉ๋๋ค. MCDM์ ํ๋์ธ ์ด์ ํด(่งฃ) ์ ์ฌ์ฑ ์ ํธ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution; TOPSIS)์ ๊ฐ์์ ์ต์ ๋์๊ณผ์ ๊ทผ์ ๋๋ฅผ ํ๊ฐํ๋ค. ์ด๋ ๊ฐ๋ณ ์๋ต์์ ๊ฐ์ธ ํน์ฑ์ด ๋ฐ์๋๋ฉด์๋ ์์ ๋ฐ์ ๋ฌธ์ ๋ฅผ ํผํ ์ ์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ๋์ ๊ฐ์ ์ฐจ์ด์ ์ ์ฌ์ฑ์ ํ๋จํ ์ ์์ด ๊ธฐํ ์ ์ ๋ถ์ผ์์ ์ ์ฉํ๊ฒ ์ฌ์ฉ๋ ์ ์๋ค. ๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ์์๋ ์ง๋ฐฉ์์น๋จ์ฒด์ ์๋ฏผ๋จ์ฒด๋ฅผ ํฌํจํ ์ ๋ฌธ๊ฐ ์ง๋จ์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ฒ๋์ค๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ฑํ์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ค์ ์ค๋ฌธ ์๋ต์ ํตํด ์ ๋ขฐํ ์ ์๋ ์ ์์ ์ฑ
์ฐ์ ์์๋ฅผ ๋์ถํ์๋ค. TOPSIS๋ฅผ ์ฌ์ฉํ์ฌ ๊ฑฐ๋ฒ๋์ค์ ๊ฐ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์์ ์๋ก ๋ค๋ฅธ ์ฐ์ ์์ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ ์์ฑ๋๋ฉฐ, ์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ์ ํ๋์ ์ต์ ํด(่งฃ)๋ฅผ ์ ๊ณตํ๋ ๊ฒ์ด ์๋๋ผ ์ฌ๋ฌ ๋์์ ์ฐ์ ์์ ์ต์
์ ์ ์ํ๋ค. ๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํตํด ์์ฌ๊ฒฐ์ ์๋ ์ง์ญ ์กฐ๊ฑด์ ๋ง๋ ์ค์ ์ด ๊ฐ๋ฅํ๋ฉฐ, ๊ตญ๊ฐ ์์ค์์์ ์ฐ์ ์์๋ง ์๋๋ผ ์ง์ญ ์์ค์์๋ ์ ํ ๊ฐ๋ฅํ ์์ญ์ผ๋ก ํ์ฅ๋ ์ ์๋ค. ๋ฌผ๊ด๋ฆฌ ๋ถ๋ฌธ์ ๋ํด์ ๋์ถ๋ 21๊ฐ์ ์ ์ ์ต์
์ ๋ํด์ ์ฐ์ ์์๋ฅผ ๋์ถํ์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ์ ์๋์ ์ธ closeness ๊ฐ์ผ๋ก ๋์ถ๋๋ค. ๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ์์, ์ ์ ๋ถ์ผ์์ ์ฐ์ ์์๋ฅผ ์ ์ ํ๋ ๋ฐ์๋ ์์ฌ๊ฒฐ์ ์์ ์๊ตฌ์ ๋ฐ๋ผ ํ๋ ฅ์ ์ผ๋ก ๊ธฐ๋ฅํ ์ ์๋ ์ฐ์ ์์ ์ ์ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ์ด ํ์ํ๋ค๋ ์ ์ ํ์ธํ์๋ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ ์๊ณผ ์ ์์ต์
ํ๊ฐ์ ์ ํฉํ ํ๊ฐ์งํ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ป๊ฒ ๊ตฌ์ฑํด์ผ ํ๋์ง๋ฅผ ์ ์ํ์๋ค. ์๊ฒ๋ ๋ถ๋ฌธ ๋ด ์ ์์์๋ถํฐ ๊ธฐํ๋ณํ ์ธ์ ์ธ ํจ๊ณผ๊น์ง ๊ณ ๋ คํด์ผ ํ๋ฉฐ, ์ ์ฑ
ํ๋น์ฑ ์ธก๋ฉด์์ ์ผ๋ง๋ ์๊ธํ์ง๋ ๋ฐ์ํ ์ ์๋ ์งํ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ฑํ์๋ค. ์ค๋ฌธ์ง ์กฐ์ฌ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅธ ์ฐ์ ์์ ๋์ถ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ฌผ๊ด๋ฆฌ ๋ถ๋ฌธ์์๋ ์ฐ์
/๋์
์์์ ์์ ๊ด๋ฆฌ, ์งํ์์์๊ด๋ฆฌ, ํ์ ์ฌ์ด์ฉ ํ๋ ๋ฑ ๊ฐ๋ญ์ ์ฑ
์ ์ฐ์ ์์๊ฐ ๋๊ฒ ๋ํ๋ฌ์ผ๋ฉฐ, ์นจ์์์ ํ๋ณด ์ฒด๊ณ ๊ตฌ์ถ, ๋ฌผ ์์ ๊ณํ ๋ฑ์ ํ์์ ์์ํ๊ณ ์ ์ฑ
์ด ๊ทธ ๋ค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ๋๋ค. ๋์ถ๋ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ ํ๋์ ์์์ผ ๋ฟ์ด์ง๋ง, ์์ฌ๊ฒฐ์ ๊ณผ์ ์์ ์ด๋ฌํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ฐธ๊ณ ํ์ฌ ๊ณผ์ ์ ์ ๋ขฐ์ฑ๊ณผ ํ๋น์ฑ์ ํฅ์์ํฌ ์ ์๋ค. ์์์ด ์ ํ๋์ด ์๋ ์ํ์์ ๋ถํ์คํ ์ ๋ณด๋ฅผ ํ๊ฐํ ์ ์๊ณ , ๊ทธ ๊ณผ์ ์ ์ ํฉ์ฑ์ ์ ๊ณตํ ์ ์๋ค๋ ์ ์์ ๊ณํ ๊ณผ์ ์์ ๋์์ด ๋ ์ ์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ํฅํ ๊ฐ์ค์น ๋ถ์ฌ ๋ฐฉ์ ๋ฑ์ ์ํฅํ๊ฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ฑ ๊ณผํ์ ๋ฐ์ดํฐ์ ์ฐ๊ณํ๋ค๋ฉด ๋์ฑ ์ ์ฉํ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ์ผ๋ก ํ์ฉ๋ ์ ์๋ค.Chapter 1. Introduction ๏ผ
1.1. Study Background ๏ผ
1.2. Purpose of Research ๏ผ
Chapter 2. Literature Review ๏ผ
Chapter 3. Methodology ๏ผ
3.1. Constructing Evaluation Criteria and a List of Adaptation Options in the Sector ๏ผ
3.2. Obtaining Stakeholder Opinion and Conducting the Policy Evaluation Questionnaire ๏ผ๏ผ
3.3. Choosing a Method to Synthesize Responses Determining the Final Priority ๏ผ๏ผ
Chapter 4. Results ๏ผ๏ผ
4.1. List of Adaptation Options in the Water Management Sector ๏ผ๏ผ
4.2. Adaptation Options Priority Result in Water Management Sector ๏ผ๏ผ
Chapter 5. Discussion ๏ผ๏ผ
5.1. Prioritization method suitable for climate change adaptation governance ๏ผ๏ผ
5.2. Proper criteria for evaluating adaptation options priority ๏ผ๏ผ
5.3. Discussion on the results of prioritization and key priority options ๏ผ๏ผ
Chapter 6. Conclusion ๏ผ๏ผ
Bibliography ๏ผ๏ผ
Abstract in Korean ๏ผ๏ผ
Appendix ๏ผ๏ผMaste
Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008)
There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required
The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality
Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies
Irrigation demand modelling using the UKCP09 weather generator: lessons learned
The determination of irrigation demand is typically based on crop modelling using a long historic record of local daily weather data. However, there are rarely adequate weather station records near to given sites; often any local records cover a limited number of years, are incomplete, costly or are of poor quality. This paper examines whether version 1 of the UKCP09 weather generator can provide a simpler and effective method of calculating irrigation demand with sufficient accuracy for regulatory and design purposes. The irrigation demands at seven sites distributed around England were modelled using the UKCP09 baseline climatology and compared with results modelled using daily observed weather records. For the design dry year used for irrigation planning, the weather generator replicated the observed conditions with reasonable accuracy. The weather generator was however less successful at replicating extreme dry years. These results are encouraging but also provide a note of caution for the use of these generated datasets for studying current irrigation demand and by implication for modelling future needs under climate change. The study also demonstrated a simple sub-sampling approach for reducing the processing demands if using the dataset in more complex models, though this would not remove any underlying error
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