How Similar Are European Business Cycles?

In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of business cycles among participating countries. We measure, based on bandpass filtered data, the characteristics of European business cycles analyzing to what extent they have become more similar over time. We also consider the role of other factors such as differences in fiscal and monetary policy, border effects, and trade intensity. Our main finding is that European business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization coincides with larger relative magnitude. These results raise concern about the consequences of a common monetary policy within EMU.business cycles; symmetry and co{movement of cycles; magnitude of cycles; economic integration; monetary union

Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case

This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response to the threat of a currency crisis is restrictive. We demonstrate that this result is primarily due to the uncovered interest parity assumption. Assuming that the exchange rate is a martingale restores the case for expansionary reaction - even with foreign-currency debt in firms' balance sheets. The effect of lower interest rates on output can help restore the value of the currency due to increased money demand.currency crises; foreign–currency debt; balance sheets; interest parity; monetary policy

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union

This paper studies business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873-1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier empirical evidence. Estimates of factor models suggest that common Scandinavian shocks are important for these three countries. At the same time we find evidence suggesting that the importance of these shocks does not depend on the monetary regime.european union, eu, denmark, sweden, norway, jonung, bergman, scandinavian currency, union synchronisation of cycles, co-movement of cycles, monetary unions symnetry, symmetry european business cycles

Recursive McCormick Linearization of Multilinear Programs

Linear programming (LP) relaxations are widely employed in exact solution methods for multilinear programs (MLP). One example is the family of Recursive McCormick Linearization (RML) strategies, where bilinear products are substituted for artificial variables, which deliver a relaxation of the original problem when introduced together with concave and convex envelopes. In this article, we introduce the first systematic approach for identifying RMLs, in which we focus on the identification of linear relaxation with a small number of artificial variables and with strong LP bounds. We present a novel mechanism for representing all the possible RMLs, which we use to design an exact mixed-integer programming (MIP) formulation for the identification of minimum-size RMLs; we show that this problem is NP-hard in general, whereas a special case is fixed-parameter tractable. Moreover, we explore structural properties of our formulation to derive an exact MIP model that identifies RMLs of a given size with the best possible relaxation bound is optimal. Our numerical results on a collection of benchmarks indicate that our algorithms outperform the RML strategy implemented in state-of-the-art global optimization solvers.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, Under Revie

Should the Nordic Countries Join A European Monetary Union? An Empirical Analysis.

This paper examines the implications for the Nordic Countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) of participating in the finan stage of the European Monetary Union. Economic linkages with Germany are estimated using a time series approach under both the Bretton Woods and the post-Bretton Woods exchange rate regimes. Output responses of the Nordic countries to permanent and transitory disturbances are estimated and compared with two small "core" members, Belgium and the Netherlands. We find that the long-standing EU members (Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands) are closely integrated with Germany in that German shocks have a direct and large impact on their output developments. These linkages appear much weaker for Finland, Norway and Sweden. Common European disturbances also do not distinguish the Nordic countries from the non-Nordic countries.

Understanding space, place and leisure of women over 85 living in the community

There is an increase in the number of older adults 85 and over, who are choosing to live alone within the community. Moreover, older adults who live alone are reportedly spending an extensive amount of time alone within the home environment. In an effort to provide additional support and resources to older adults living in the community, a compliment of services are being offered through public and private organizations. These in-home supports focus on the instrumental or functional tasks of daily living, such as personal and rehabilitative care, nourishment, maintenance and upkeep of the home, as well as volunteer social visitation. However leisure resources and programs are not included among these services. Consequently, this creates a gap in leisure provision among this segment of the population. Throughout the life course, an individual's identity, role and purpose are developed and sustained through instrumental work roles in the formal and informal sector, as well as through personally meaningful leisure pastimes and experiences. Although roles shift post retirement, participation in instrumental and expressive activities can provide opportunities through which older adults are able to fulfill their need for agency (individuality and autonomy) and affiliation (social relatedness). Therefore barriers that inhibit instrumental or leisure experiences can negatively impact older adults' quality of life. This study explored the leisure lifestyles of four older adults, all of whom were over 85, lived alone within the community and were oriented to person, time and place. It became apparent that participants ordered their lives around a routine that consisted of instrumental, expressive and socially integrated tasks and activities. Moreover participants purposely chose to remain at home because their home environment facilitated freedom, choice and independence. As a result all four participants viewed their independence within the home as a critical determinant to their overall quality of life. Challenges associated with the home environment, participants' personal capacities and relationships were negotiated on a daily basis. Failure to positively adapt to these challenges inhibited meaningful engagement and personal fulfillment. Traditionally, leisure service delivery has been offered within institutions and through various community based venues. As a result leisure provision has been focused on the needs of the frail elderly who reside in institutions or the well elderly who are able to access leisure amenities within the community. However the growing number of older adults electing to live alone is on the rise. As individuals age the home becomes the preferred context for leisure experiences. If older adults are choosing to live alone, then both their instrumental and leisure needs must be addressed. As a result, it is imperative that leisure professionals extend the scope of service delivery to include home centered older adults

Identification and classification of the formation of intermediate ions measured in boreal forest

International audienceWe have measured the size distributions of air ions (0.42?7.5 nm in diameter) with the Balanced Scanning Mobility Analyzer in boreal forest, in Southern Finland since spring 2003. The size range covers the size range of cluster ions (approximately 0.42?1.6 nm) and naturally charged nanometre aerosol particles (1.6?7.5 nm) or intermediate air ions. Based on the measurements from April 2003 to March 2006 we studied the characteristics of charged aerosol particle formation by classifying each day either as a particle formation event, undefined or non-event day. The principal of the classification, as well as the statistical description of the charged aerosol particle formation events are given. We found in total 270 (26% of the analysed days) and 226 (22% of the analysed days) particle formation days for negative and positive intermediate ions, respectively. For negatively charged particles we classified 411 (40% of the analysed days) undefined and 348 (34% of the analysed days) non-event days whereas for positively charged particles 343 (33% of the analysed days) undefined and 460 (45% of the analysed days) non-event days. The results were compared with the ordinary classification based on the Differential Mobility Particle Sizer (DMPS) measurements carried out at the same place. The above-presented values differed slightly from that found from the DMPS data, with a lower particle diameter of 3 nm. In addition, we have found the rain-induced intermediate ion bursts frequently. The rain effect was detected on 163 days by means of negative ions and on 105 days by positive ones. Another interesting phenomenon among the charged aerosol particles was the appearance and existence of intermediate ions during the snowfall. We observed this phenomenon 24 times with negatively charged particles and 21 times with positively charged ones during winter months (October?April). These intermediate air ions were seen during the snowfall and may be caused by ice crystals, although the origin of these intermediate ions is unclear at the moment