On Compound Poisson Processes Arising in Change-Point Type Statistical Models as Limiting Likelihood Ratios

Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In a previous paper of one of the authors it was established that one of these likelihood ratios, which is an exponential functional of a two-sided Poisson process driven by some parameter, can be approximated (for sufficiently small values of the parameter) by another one, which is an exponential functional of a two-sided Brownian motion. In this paper we consider yet another likelihood ratio, which is the exponent of a two-sided compound Poisson process driven by some parameter. We establish, that similarly to the Poisson type one, the compound Poisson type likelihood ratio can be approximated by the Brownian type one for sufficiently small values of the parameter. We equally discuss the asymptotics for large values of the parameter and illustrate the results by numerical simulations

Carbon monoxide distributions from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere inferred from 4.7 μm non-local thermal equilibrium emissions measured by MIPAS on Envisat

We present global distributions of carbon monoxide (CO) from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat. Vertically resolved volume mixing ratio profiles have been retrieved from 4.7 μm limb emission spectra under consideration of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium. The precision of individual CO profiles is typically 5–30 ppbv (15–40% for altitudes greater than 40 km and lower than 15 km and 30–90% within 15–40 km). Estimated systematic errors are in the order of 8–15%. Below 60 km, the vertical resolution is 4–7 km. The data set which covers 54 days from September 2003 to March 2004 has been derived with an improved retrieval version including (i) the retrieval of log(vmr), (ii) the consideration of illumination-dependent vibrational population gradients along the instrument's line of sight, and (iii) joint-fitted vmr horizontal gradients in latitudinal and longitudinal directions. A detailed analysis of spatially resolved CO distributions during the 2003/2004 Northern Hemisphere major warming event demonstrate the potential of MIPAS CO observations to obtain new information on transport processes during dynamical active episodes, particularly on those acting in the vertical. From the temporal evolution of zonally averaged CO abundances, we derived extraordinary polar winter descent velocities of 1200 m per day inside the recovered polar vortex in January 2004. Middle stratospheric CO abundances show a well established correlation with the chemical source CH<sub>4</sub>, particularly in the tropics. In the upper troposphere, a moderate CO decrease from September 2003 to March 2004 was observed. Upper tropospheric CO observations provide a detailed picture of long-range transport of polluted air masses and uplift events. MIPAS observations taken on 9–11 September 2003 confirm the trapping of convective outflow of polluted CO-rich air from Southeast Asia into the Asian monsoon anticyclone, which has been described in previous studies. Upper tropospheric CO plumes, observed by MIPAS on this day, were predominantly located in the Northern Hemisphere. Most of these plumes could be related to Southeast Asian pollution by means of backward trajectory calculations. During 20–22 October, southern hemispheric biomass burning was the most likely source of the major CO plumes observed over the Southern Atlantic and Indian Ocean

Seasonal and interannual variations of HCN amounts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed by MIPAS

We present a HCN climatology of the years 2002-2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite, with the main focus on biomass burning signatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. HCN is an almost unambiguous tracer of biomass burning with a tropospheric lifetime of 5-6 months and a stratospheric lifetime of about 2 years. The MIPAS climatology is in good agreement with the HCN distribution obtained by the spaceborne ACE-FTS experiment and with airborne in situ measurements performed during the INTEX-B campaign. The HCN amounts observed by MIPAS in the southern tropical and subtropical upper troposphere have an annual cycle peaking in October-November, i.e. 1-2 months after the maximum of southern hemispheric fire emissions. The probable reason for the time shift is the delayed onset of deep convection towards austral summer. Because of overlap of varying biomass burning emissions from South America and southern Africa with sporadically strong contributions from Indonesia, the size and strength of the southern hemispheric plume have considerable interannual variations, with monthly mean maxima at, for example, 14 km between 400 and more than 700 pptv. Within 1-2 months after appearance of the plume, a considerable portion of the enhanced HCN is transported southward to as far as Antarctic latitudes. The fundamental period of HCN variability in the northern upper troposphere is also an annual cycle with varying amplitude, which in the tropics peaks in May after and during the biomass burning seasons in northern tropical Africa and southern Asia, and in the subtropics peaks in July due to trapping of pollutants in the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). However, caused by extensive biomass burning in Indonesia and by northward transport of part of the southern hemispheric plume, northern HCN maxima also occur around October/November in several years, which leads to semi-annual cycles. There is also a temporal shift between enhanced HCN in northern low and mid- to high latitudes, indicating northward transport of pollutants. Due to additional biomass burning at mid- and high latitudes, this meridional transport pattern is not as clear as in the Southern Hemisphere. Upper tropospheric HCN volume mixing ratios (VMRs) above the tropical oceans decrease to below 200 pptv, presumably caused by ocean uptake, especially during boreal winter and spring. The tropical stratospheric tape recorder signal with an apparently biennial period, which was detected in MLS and ACE-FTS data from mid-2004 to mid-2007, is corroborated by MIPAS HCN data. The tape recorder signal in the whole MIPAS data set exhibits periodicities of 2 and 4 years, which are generated by interannual variations in biomass burning. The positive anomalies of the years 2003, 2007 and 2011 are caused by succession of strongly enhanced HCN from southern hemispheric and Indonesian biomass burning in boreal autumn and of elevated HCN from northern tropical Africa and the AMA in subsequent spring and summer. The anomaly of 2005 seems to be due to springtime emissions from tropical Africa followed by release from the summertime AMA. The vertical transport time of the anomalies is 1 month or less between 14 and 17 km in the upper troposphere and 8-11 months between 17 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere

Retrieval of temperature, H₂O, O₃, HNO₃, CH₄, N₂O, ClONO₂ and ClO from MIPAS reduced resolution nominal mode limb emission measurements

Retrievals of temperature, H2O, O3, HNO3, CH4, N2O, ClONO2 and ClO from MIPAS reduced spectral resolution nominal mode limb emission measurements outperform retrievals from respective full spectral resolution measurements both in terms of altitude resolution and precision. The estimated precision (including measurement noise and propagation of uncertain parameters randomly varying in the time domain) and altitude resolution are typically 0.5–1.4K and 2–3.5 km for temperature between 10 and 50 km altitude, and 5–6%, 2–4 km for H2O below 30 km altitude, 4– 5%, 2.5–4.5 km for O3 between 15 and 40 km altitude, 3– 8%, 3–5 km for HNO3 between 10 and 35 km altitude, 5– 8%, 2–3 km for CH4 between 15 and 35 km altitude, 5–10%, 3 km for N2O between 15 and 35 km altitude, 8–14%, 2.5– 9 km for ClONO2 below 40 km, and larger than 35%, 3– 7 km for ClO in the lower stratosphere. As for the full spectral resolution measurements, the reduced spectral resolution nominal mode horizontal sampling (410 km) is coarser than the horizontal smoothing (often below 400 km), depending on species, altitude and number of tangent altitudes actually used for the retrieval. Thus, aliasing might be an issue even in the along-track domain. In order to prevent failure of convergence, it was found to be essential to consider horizontal temperature gradients during the retrieval

Global stratospheric hydrogen peroxide distribution from MIPAS-Envisat full resolution spectra compared to KASIMA model results

MIPAS-ENVISAT full resolution spectra were analyzed to obtain a global distribution of hydrogen peroxide (H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub>) in the stratosphere. H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> acts as reservoir gas for the HO<sub>x</sub> family (= H+OH+HO<sub>2</sub>) and thus, observations of H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> provide a better understanding of the HO<sub>x</sub> chemistry in the atmosphere. A retrieval approach based on constrained least squares fitting was developed and applied to small dedicated spectral analysis windows with maximum H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> information and minimum contribution of interfering gases. Due to a low signal to noise ratio in the measured spectra single profiles cannot be used for scientific interpretation and about 100 profiles have to be averaged temporally or spatially. Our retrievals of H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> from MIPAS measurements provide meaningful results between approximately 20 and 60 km. A possible impact by the high uncertainty of the reaction rate constant for HO<sub>2</sub> + HO<sub>2</sub>→H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> + O<sub>2</sub> in our 3D-CTM KASIMA is discussed. We find best agreement between model and observations for applying rate constants according to Christensen et al. (2002) however, a mismatch in vertical profile shape remains. The observations were compared to the model results of KASIMA focusing on low to mid latitudes. Good agreement in spatial distribution and in temporal evolution was found. Highest vmr of H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> in the stratosphere were observed and modeled in low latitudes shortly after equinox at about 30 km. The modelled diurnal cycle with lowest vmr shortly after sunrise and highest vmr in the afternoon is confirmed by the MIPAS observations

Methane and nitrous oxide retrievals from MIPAS-ENVISAT

We present the strongly revised IMK/IAA MIPAS-ENVISAT CH4 and N2O data products for the MIPAS full resolution (versions V5H_CH4_21 and V5H_N2O_21) and for the reduced resolution period (versions V5R_CH4_224, V5R_CH4_225, V5R_N2O_224 and V5R_N2O_225). Differences to older retrieval versions which are known to have a high bias are discussed. The usage of the HITRAN 2008 spectroscopic dataset leads to lower values for both gases in the lower part of the profile. The improved correction of additive radiance offsets and handling of background radiance continua allows for aerosol contributions at altitudes in the upper stratosphere and above. These changes lead to more plausible values both in the radiance offset and in the profiles of the continuum absorption coefficients. They also increase the fraction of converged retrievals. Some minor changes were applied to the constraint of the inverse problem, causing small differences in the retrieved profiles, mostly due to the relaxation of off-diagonal regularisation matrix elements for the calculation of jointly retrieved absorption coefficient profiles. Spectral microwindows have been adjusted to avoid areas with saturated spectral signatures. Jointly retrieving profiles of water vapour and nitric acid serves to compensate spectroscopic inconsistencies. We discuss the averaging kernels of the products and their vertical resolution

Validation of MIPAS IMK/IAA V5R_O3_224 Ozone Profiles

We present the results of an extensive validation program of the most recent version of ozone vertical profiles retrieved with the IMK/IAA (Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research/Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia) MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) research level 2 processor from version 5 spectral level 1 data. The time period covered corresponds to the reduced spectral resolution period of the MIPAS instrument, i.e., January 2005-April 2012. The comparison with satellite instruments includes all post-2005 satellite limb and occultation sensors that have measured the vertical profiles of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone: ACE-FTS, GOMOS, HALOE, HIRDLS, MLS, OSIRIS, POAM, SAGE II, SCIAMACHY, SMILES, and SMR. In addition, balloon-borne MkIV solar occultation measurements and ground-based Umkehr measurements have been included, as well as two nadir sensors: IASI and SBUV. For each reference data set, bias determination and precision assessment are performed. Better agreement with reference instruments than for the previous data version, V5R_O3_220 (Laeng et al., 2014), is found: the known high bias around the ozone vmr (volume mixing ratio) peak is significantly reduced and the vertical resolution at 35 km has been improved. The agreement with limb and solar occultation reference instruments that have a known small bias vs. ozonesondes is within 7% in the lower and middle stratosphere and 5% in the upper troposphere. Around the ozone vmr peak, the agreement with most of the satellite reference instruments is within 5 %; this bias is as low as 3% for ACE-FTS, MLS, OSIRIS, POAM and SBUV

Retrieval of global upper tropospheric and stratospheric formaldehyde (H2CO) distributions from high-resolution MIPAS-Envisat spectra

The Fourier transform spectrometer MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) on Envisat measures infrared emission of the Earth's atmosphere in a limb viewing mode. High spectral resolution measurements of MIPAS are sensitive to formaldehyde from the upper troposphere to the stratopause. Single profile retrievals of formaldehyde are dominated by a 60% noise error; however zonal mean values for 30 days of data during 8 September 2003 and 1 December 2003 reduces this error by a factor of 20 or more. The number of degrees of freedom for single profile retrieval ranges from 2 to 4.5 depending on latitude and number of cloud-free tangent altitudes. In the upper tropical troposphere zonal mean values of about 70 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) were found, which have been attributed to biomass burning emissions. In the stratosphere, formaldehyde values are determined by photochemical reactions. In the upper tropical stratosphere, formaldehyde zonal mean maximum values can reach 130 pptv. Diurnal variations in this region can be up to 50 pptv. Comparisons with other satellite instruments show generally good agreement in the region of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere as well as in the upper stratosphere