Quantification of product color preference in a utility function

Currently, many marketing and engineering tools exist to help a designer optimize quantitative attributes of a product, such as height, weight, volume, or cost. However, these methods cannot effectively take into consideration aesthetic attributes of a product, or any other attributes for which there is no understood functional relationship between the attribute\u27s potential values and the consumer\u27s preference. This research has begun the work of developing this necessary functional relationship for the aesthetic attribute of color and has created a methodology for further research. To do this, colors were represented by their red, green, and blue light components, and preference information for each of these attributes was gathered by presenting individuals with a small sample of colors, applied to backpacks, in a short choice survey. A utility function was fit to the preference data points using standard regression methods. The validity of these functions was tested by administering individual-specific follow-up surveys, in which each of the survey questions contained a high, a neutral, and a low utility backpack color, as determined by the utility functions. Individuals chose the high utility color an average of 74% of the time, which is significantly better than random chance. In addition, success rates as high as 87% were achieved in certain instances where greyscale preferences were incorporated into the overall utility function. These results indicate that a large portion of individual preferences were captured by the utility functions, allowing the methodology provided to serve as a foundation for future research --Abstract, page iii

Prognostic value of upper respiratory tract microbes in children presenting to primary care with respiratory infections:a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The association between upper respiratory tract microbial positivity and illness prognosis in children is unclear. This impedes clinical decision-making and means the utility of upper respiratory tract microbial point-of-care tests remains unknown. We investigated for relationships between pharyngeal microbes and symptom severity in children with suspected respiratory tract infection (RTI). METHODS: Baseline characteristics and pharyngeal swabs were collected from 2,296 children presenting to 58 general practices in Bristol, UK with acute cough and suspected RTI between 2011–2013. Post-consultation, parents recorded the severity of six RTI symptoms on a 0–6 scale daily for ≤28 days. We used multivariable hurdle regression, adjusting for clinical characteristics, antibiotics and other microbes, to investigate associations between respiratory microbes and mean symptom severity on days 2–4 post-presentation. RESULTS: Overall, 1,317 (57%) children with complete baseline, microbiological and symptom data were included. Baseline characteristics were similar in included participants and those lacking microbiological data. At least one virus was detected in 869 (66%) children, and at least one bacterium in 783 (60%). Compared to children with no virus detected (mean symptom severity score 1.52), adjusted mean symptom severity was 0.26 points higher in those testing positive for at least one virus (95% CI 0.15 to 0.38, p<0.001); and was also higher in those with detected Influenza B (0.44, 0.15 to 0.72, p = 0.003); RSV (0.41, 0.20 to 0.60, p<0.001); and Influenza A (0.25, -0.01 to 0.51, p = 0.059). Children positive for Enterovirus had a lower adjusted mean symptom severity (-0.24, -0.43 to -0.05, p = 0.013). Children with detected Bordetella pertussis (0.40, 0.00 to 0.79, p = 0.049) and those with detected Moraxella catarrhalis (-0.76, -1.06 to -0.45, p<0.001) respectively had higher and lower mean symptom severity compared to children without these bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential role for upper respiratory tract microbiological point-of-care tests in determining the prognosis of childhood RTIs

Tracking elusive and shifting identities of the global fishing fleet

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing costs billions of dollars per year and is enabled by vessels obfuscating their identity. Here, we combine identities of ~35,000 vessels with a decade of GPS data to provide a global assessment of fishing compliance, reflagging patterns, and fishing by foreign-owned vessels. About 17% of high seas fishing is by potentially unauthorized or internationally unregulated vessels, with hot spots of this activity in the west Indian and the southwest Atlantic Oceans. In addition, reflagging, a tactic often used to obscure oversight, occurs in just a few ports primarily by fleets with high foreign ownership. Fishing by foreign-owned vessels is concentrated in parts of high seas and certain national waters, often flying flags of convenience. These findings can address the global scope of potential IUU fishing and enable authorities to improve oversight

Polyclonal epitope mapping reveals temporal dynamics and diversity of human antibody responses to H5N1 vaccination

Novel influenza A virus (IAV) strains elicit recall immune responses to conserved epitopes, making them favorable antigenic choices for universal influenza virus vaccines. Evaluating these immunogens requires a thorough understanding of the antigenic sites targeted by the polyclonal antibody (pAb) response, which single-particle electron microscopy (EM) can sensitively detect. In this study, we employ EM polyclonal epitope mapping (EMPEM) to extensively characterize the pAb response to hemagglutinin (HA) after H5N1 immunization in humans. Cross-reactive pAbs originating from memory B cells immediately bound the stem of HA and persisted for more than a year after vaccination. In contrast, de novo pAb responses to multiple sites on the head of HA, targeting previously determined key neutralizing sites on H5 HA, expanded after the second immunization and waned quickly. Thus, EMPEM provides a robust tool for comprehensively tracking the specificity and durability of immune responses elicited by novel universal influenza vaccine candidates

The Indian Easterly Jet During the pre-monsoon season in India

We identify for the first time an Indian Easterly Jet (IEJ) in the mid-troposphere during the pre-monsoon using reanalysis data. The IEJ is weaker and smaller than the African Easterly Jet over West Africa, with a climatological location of 10°N, 60–90°E, 700 hPa, and strength 6–7 m s−1 during March–May. The IEJ is a thermal wind associated with low-level meridional gradients in temperature (positive) and moisture (negative), resulting from equatorward moist convection and poleward dry convection. The IEJ is associated with a negative meridional potential vorticity gradient, therefore satisfying the Charney-Stern necessary condition for instability. However, no wave activity is detected, suggesting that the potential for combined barotropic-baroclinic instability is not often realized. IEJ strong (weak) years feature increased (reduced) near-surface temperatures and drier (wetter) conditions over India. This study provides an introduction to the IEJ's role in pre-monsoon dynamics, and a platform for further research

High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions

Reopening of universities to students following COVID-19 restrictions risks increased transmission due to high numbers of social contacts and the potential for asymptomatic transmission. Here, the authors use a mathematical model with social contact data to estimate the impacts of reopening a typical non-campus based university in the UK

A Q-methodological study of 'smoking identities'

publication-status: Publishedtypes: ArticleIn contrast to the psychological literature on adolescent smoking, little research has investigated the social identities of adult smokers. This study aimed to identify shared ‘smoking identities’ amongst a sample of 64 British smokers from different socio-economic groups using Q-methodology. Participants were asked to sort 70 items concerning smoking and smokers according to their agreement/disagreement with them. The 64 Q-sorts were then subjected to a by-person factor analysis yielding six factors, with the first four interpretable factors being presented here. Each factor is understood to represent a distinct ‘identity position’. The first two, the ‘addicted’ smoker, and the ‘in control’ smoker, oriented around a biomedical model of smoking as an addictive health risk. The final two, the ‘no big deal’ smoker and the ‘proud’ smoker reflected alternative understandings and values. The identity positions also differed in the extent to which smoking was considered a core part of self-identity. Unpacking the ‘smoking identities’ of current smokers offers the opportunity to devise targeted health promotion.Economic and Social Research Counci

Contacts and behaviours of university students during the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of the 2020/2021 academic year

University students have unique living, learning and social arrangements which may have implications for infectious disease transmission. To address this data gap, we created CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire), a longitudinal online survey of contacts, behaviour, and COVID-19 symptoms for University of Bristol (UoB) staff/students. Here, we analyse results from 740 students providing 1261 unique records from the start of the 2020/2021 academic year (14/09/2020–01/11/2020), where COVID-19 outbreaks led to the self-isolation of all students in some halls of residences. Although most students reported lower daily contacts than in pre-COVID-19 studies, there was heterogeneity, with some reporting many (median = 2, mean = 6.1, standard deviation = 15.0; 8% had ≥ 20 contacts). Around 40% of students’ contacts were with individuals external to the university, indicating potential for transmission to non-students/staff. Only 61% of those reporting cardinal symptoms in the past week self-isolated, although 99% with a positive COVID-19 test during the 2 weeks before survey completion had self-isolated within the last week. Some students who self-isolated had many contacts (mean = 4.3, standard deviation = 10.6). Our results provide context to the COVID-19 outbreaks seen in universities and are available for modelling future outbreaks and informing policy

Ketamine effects on memory reconsolidation favor a learning model of delusions.

Delusions are the persistent and often bizarre beliefs that characterise psychosis. Previous studies have suggested that their emergence may be explained by disturbances in prediction error-dependent learning. Here we set up complementary studies in order to examine whether such a disturbance also modulates memory reconsolidation and hence explains their remarkable persistence. First, we quantified individual brain responses to prediction error in a causal learning task in 18 human subjects (8 female). Next, a placebo-controlled within-subjects study of the impact of ketamine was set up on the same individuals. We determined the influence of this NMDA receptor antagonist (previously shown to induce aberrant prediction error signal and lead to transient alterations in perception and belief) on the evolution of a fear memory over a 72 hour period: they initially underwent Pavlovian fear conditioning; 24 hours later, during ketamine or placebo administration, the conditioned stimulus (CS) was presented once, without reinforcement; memory strength was then tested again 24 hours later. Re-presentation of the CS under ketamine led to a stronger subsequent memory than under placebo. Moreover, the degree of strengthening correlated with individual vulnerability to ketamine's psychotogenic effects and with prediction error brain signal. This finding was partially replicated in an independent sample with an appetitive learning procedure (in 8 human subjects, 4 female). These results suggest a link between altered prediction error, memory strength and psychosis. They point to a core disruption that may explain not only the emergence of delusional beliefs but also their persistence