The UK’s sexuality gap: LGB voters remain significantly more supportive of the Labour party

Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte provides the first case study analysis of a sexuality gap between heterosexuals and self-identified lesbian, gay and bisexuals (LGB) in Britain. He finds that LGB voters are almost 10 percentage points more likely to vote for Labour and 14 percentage points more likely to vote for any socially liberal party via-à-vis their heterosexual peers

Do snap elections increase voters’ political trust? Evidence from Theresa May’s 2017 natural experiment suggests they do

Snap elections are an increasingly common occurrence in parliamentary democracies, but do these disruptions to the electoral calendar have consequences for voters’ trust in politics? Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte presents novel evidence from the 2017 snap election to show that voters are, on average, more trusting of government when provided with early summons to the polls

How sexuality affects the choices of voters across Europe

Drawing on a new study, Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte demonstrates that sexuality has a significant impact on political behaviour across western Europe, with lesbian, gay and bisexual voters far more likely to back parties on the left

Selfies, policies or votes?: How politicians can campaign effectively on Instagram

Twitter and Facebook have become crucial arenas for political competition, but what about Instagram? In new research, Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte assesses how parties in Spain have used the image-based social media platform and finds that political newcomers like Podemos and Ciudadanos are most effective at engaging voters, particularly when they focus on political leaders and mobilising supporters, but that policy communication is less effective

Madrid’s regional election: how we got here, what happened, and why it matters

On 4 May, the Popular Party, led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, doubled their share of seats in a snap regional election in Madrid. Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte and José Rama react to the result, which also prompted the resignation of Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos

Lessons from Junqueras: how ECJ decisions can increase opposition to the EU

Decisions taken by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) can generate substantial political debate, but do they help foster Euroscepticism? Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte and Dan Devine present evidence from a study of attitudes in Spain following an ECJ ruling on the case of the Catalan politician Oriol Junqueras in 2019. They find that those exposed to the ruling were 6% more likely to be Eurosceptic and 13% more likely to be dissatisfied with the way democracy works

Europe’s Covid-19 recovery package has failed to increase public support for the EU

Did the announcement of the Covid-19 recovery package (Next Generation EU) in 2020 have a positive impact on people’s support for the EU? Barbara Krumpholz, Daniel Devine and Stuart J. Turnbull Dugarte present survey evidence that the €750bn package passed by the European council on 21 July 2020 had no effect on attitudes towards the EU, regardless of how severely member states were affected by the crisis

Who are Vox, and who are their voters?

The populist radical right party Vox has emerged as a major force in Spanish politics, but what characterises the party and its voters? Drawing on a new study, José Rama, Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte and Andrés Santana present a comprehensive assessment of the party’s ideological makeup and the key features of its electoral base

“Protect the women!” Trans‐exclusionary feminist issue framing and support for transgender rights

An increasingly salient policy innovation pursued by LGBT+ rights groups and socially liberal policy entrepreneurs is the right of trans people to bring their legally recorded sex in line with their lived gender by way of self‐identification. In response to these moves toward trans inclusion, a unique coalition of trans‐exclusionary (gender critical) feminists and traditionalist conservatives has emerged to challenge these reforms. This coalition of policy opponents, mirroring historical issue frames that present homosexuals as predatory sexual deviants, campaign on a salient issue frame that presents transgender individuals and the expansion of trans rights as an inimical threat to the security, safety, and welfare of (cisgender) women, particularly in single‐sex spaces. In this paper, we address two questions. First, we ask: do trans‐exclusionary “protect women” issue frames over the alleged threat of trans persons to (cis) women shape mass public opinion? Second, we ask: in a relatively LGBT+ friendly policy environment, who supports the right to self‐identification for trans individuals? We answer these questions via an original pre‐registered survey experiment embedded within the 2021 Scottish Election Study. We find that trans‐exclusionary issue frames appealing to (cis) women's safety significantly depress support for trans rights, particularly among women respondents. Highlighting these concerns is an effective means of increasing already robust opposition to reforms designed to improve the welfare of transgender individuals, which should be of concern for proponents of self‐identification policies

Can Parties Recruit Postal Voters? Experimental Evidence from Britain

While easily-accessible postal voting is on the rise in many countries, the implications for electoral campaigns are largely under-researched. Indeed, parties actively try to sign supporters up to postal votes to make it easier for them to turn out. But how effective are these efforts to recruit supporters on to postal votes? We present an original, pre-registered postal voter recruitment experiment – the first conducted outside the US – completed during the May 2018 UK elections. We test the effect of a common recruitment tactic – letters and application forms sent to supporters. Despite being widely used by parties, we find that these efforts are ineffective at both recruiting and mobilising supporters. While the rewards of successfully signing supporters up to postal voting are potentially substantial, our results suggest that parties should consider the most effective ways of doing so