The populist radical right party Vox has emerged as a major force in Spanish politics, but what characterises the party and its voters? Drawing on a new study, José Rama, Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte and Andrés Santana present a comprehensive assessment of the party’s ideological makeup and the key features of its electoral base

Rama, Jose

Santana, Andrés

Turnbull-Dugarte, Stuart J.

English

LSE Research Online

Who	are	Vox,	and	who	are	their	voters?The	populist	radical	right	party	Vox	has	emerged	as	a	major	force	in	Spanishpolitics,	but	what	characterises	the	party	and	its	voters?	Drawing	on	a	newstudy,	José	Rama,	Stuart	J.	Turnbull-Dugarte	and	Andrés	Santanapresent	a	comprehensive	assessment	of	the	party’s	ideological	makeup	andthe	key	features	of	its	electoral	base.Since	the	emergence	of	Vox	in	the	December	2018	Andalusian	elections,	at	least	two	questions	have	been	crucialfor	those	interested	in	political	parties	and	electoral	behaviour	in	Spain,	namely:	who	are	Vox,	and	who	are	theirvoters?	In	a	recent	publication,	we	try	to	shed	some	light	on	these	relevant	questions	by	clarifying	where	Vox	fallswithin	the	Spanish	party	system,	and	which	sociodemographic,	political,	economic	and	attitudinal	characteristicshave	led	some	citizens	to	vote	for	it.To	start	from	the	very	beginning,	it	is	clear	that	Vox	belongs	to	the	radical	right,	this	being	self-evident	in	itsprogrammatic	platform.	Economically,	the	party	adopts	a	somewhat	conventional	conservative	agenda	thatpromotes	market	liberalism,	reduced	state	intervention	and	cutbacks	to	the	social	welfare	state.	This	is	at	odds	withthe	welfare-chauvinism	advocated	by	other	members	of	the	same	party	family,	like	France’s	RassemblementNational	(formerly	Front	National).	Additionally,	the	party	clearly	advocates	a	defence	of	traditional	Spanish	valuesand	of	the	Spanish	nation	vis	à	vis	internal	and	external	threats	(secessionists	and	immigrants,	respectively).In	this	sense,	nativism	is	clearly	the	main	ideology	of	Vox.	However,	discursively	it	employs	a	populist	rhetoric	that,with	allusions	to	pre-democratic	Spain,	depicts	Spanish	society	as	divided	into	two	homogeneous	and	antagonisticgroups:	the	morally	just	and	virtuous	La	España	viva	(Spain	alive)	and	the	morally	corrupt	La	Anti-España	(Anti-Spain),	which	the	virtuous	Spain	must	fight	against.	There	is	little	doubt	that	Vox	perceives	itself	as	the	purestrepresentative	of	the	former,	with	the	party	portraying	itself	as	the	sole	protector	of	ordinary	Spanish	people’sinterests,	the	primary	defender	against	what	it	terms	la	dictadura	progre	(progressive	dictatorship)	and	the	onlyparty	that	promises,	à	la	Trump,	to	“make	Spain	great	again”.Relying	on	expert	survey	data	from	the	Global	Party	Survey	ran	by	Pippa	Norris,	we	mapped	Vox’s	political	offeringwith	the	wider	Spanish	party	system.	As	shown	in	Figure	1	below,	it	is	clear	that	the	policy	supply	promoted	by	Voxis	notably	distinct	from	that	of	the	other	four	main	Spanish	parties:	the	conservative	Partido	Popular	(Popular	Party–	PP),	the	liberal	Ciudadanos	(Citizens	–	Cs),	the	social-democratic	Partido	Socialista	Obrero	Español	(SpanishSocialist	Workers’	Party	–	PSOE),	and	the	radical	left	Unidas	Podemos	(We	can	–	UP).	Across	both	theconventional	left-right	economic	axis,	as	well	as	the	socio-cultural	(GAL-TAN)	axis,	the	party	seeks	to	fill	theideological	space	that	is	closest	to	the	polar	ends	on	the	economic	right-wing	and	conservative	space.Figure	1:	Vox’s	ideology	compared	to	other	Spanish	partiesLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 1 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	Data	points	scaled	by	vote	share	in	the	April	2019	election.In	addition	to	the	substantive	spatial	gap	between	Vox	and	the	other	Spanish	parties	in	the	multidimensional	axesof	party	competition,	the	expert	respondents	of	the	Global	Party	Survey	also	highlight	the	significance	of	populistrhetoric	for	the	party	(Figure	2).	Not	only	is	Vox	more	reliant	on	populist	rhetoric	than	the	party’s	contemporarieswithin	the	Spanish	party	system	(including	Spain’s	left-wing	populist	Unidas	Podemos),	but	populism	is	alsoidentified	as	a	core	and	salient	aspect	for	the	party.Figure	2:	Vox’s	populism	compared	to	other	Spanish	partiesLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 2 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study	in	Political	Research	Exchange.But	what	of	VOX’s	electorate?	In	our	study,	we	use	national	level	post-electoral	survey	data	to	establish	what	themotivations	are	behind	voting	for	Vox.	Our	results	are	summarised	in	the	table	below.Table:	Factors	and	voting	for	VoxLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 3 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	++	indicates	there	was	a	positive	relationship	that	was	significant	at	a	95%	confidence	level;	+	indicates	a	positive	relationshipsignificant	at	a	90%	confidence	level;	—	indicates	a	negative	relationship	significant	at	95%;	–	indicates	a	negative	relationshipsignificant	at	90%;	n/s	indicates	there	was	no	statistically	significant	relationship.	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’accompanying	study	in	Political	Research	Exchange.	Source:	Own	elaboration	based	on	post-electoral	survey,	CIS	April	2019.In	short,	our	analyses	find	evidence	that	electoral	support	for	VOX	may	not	necessarily	be	reflective	of	theconventional	support	for	populist	radical-right	wing	parties	observed	elsewhere	in	Europe.	Like	their	contemporariesin	other	states,	Vox’s	voters	tend	to	be	males	who	identify	with	the	right	and	are	unhappy	with	the	functioning	ofdemocracy.	At	odds	with	findings	amongst	Spain’s	neighbours,	however,	we	find	little	evidence	of	VOX	supportbeing	driven	by	the	economically	“left	behind”	or	the	“disenchanted”	working	class.	Vox’s	voters	tend	to	come	fromthe	higher	end	of	the	income	distribution,	have	above-average	levels	of	education	and	are	also	relatively	young.One	of	the	strongest	predictors	is	an	individual’s	sense	of	national	attachment	with	the	Spanish	state.	In	otherwords,	those	who	identify	strongly	as	Spanish	are	significantly	more	likely	to	vote	for	Vox.	However,	nationalistfeeling	is	conditioned	by	voters’	assessments	of	the	political	situation:	the	significant	positive	association	in	theprobability	of	voting	for	Vox	is	only	observed	amongst	those	who	hold	negative	evaluations	of	the	political	situation(Figure	3).	The	effect	is	also	very	large	(7.5	percentage-points)	among	those	with	negative	evaluations,	whilst	forthe	rest	of	the	voters	the	effect	is	indistinguishable	from	zero.Figure	3:	Conditional	effect	of	nationalismLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 4 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Note:	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study	in	Political	Research	Exchange.When	it	comes	to	voters	casting	their	ballot	for	Vox,	we	find,	in	addition	to	other	important	predictors	like	increasedincome,	education,	gender	(male)	and	ideological	placement,	that	nationalism	prevails.	Vox	has	been	able	tomobilise	supporters	against	threats	to	the	nation	by	targeting	the	(perceived)	internal	threat	of	Catalansecessionism	and	the	(alleged)	external	threat	of	immigration.	These	attempts	appear	to	have	proven	fruitful:	thosethat	are	both	unhappy	with	Spain’s	political	direction	and	identify	strongly	with	Spanish	national	identity	make	up	thebulk	of	Vox’s	electoral	base.José	Rama,	Stuart	J.	Turnbull-Dugarte	and	Andrés	Santana	(along	with	Lisa	Zanotti)	are	the	authors	of	anupcoming	book,	‘VOX:	The	Rise	of	the	Spanish	radical	right’,	which	will	be	published	as	part	of	theRoutledge	series	on	Extremism	and	DemocracyPlease	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorsJosé	Rama	–	King’s	College	LondonJosé	Rama	is	a	Lecturer	in	Quantitative	Methods	at	King’s	College	London.	He	is	on	Twitter@JoseRamaC–Stuart	J.	Turnbull-Dugarte	–	University	of	SouthamptonStuart	J.	Turnbull-Dugarte	is	a	Lecturer	in	Political	Science	at	the	University	ofSouthampton.	He	is	on	Twitter	@turnbulldugarte–LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 5 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Andrés	Santana	–	Autonomous	University	of	MadridAndrés	Santana	is	an	Assistant	Professor	at	the	Autonomous	University	of	Madrid.	He	is	on	Twitter@SantanaAndres3LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Who are Vox, and who are their voters? Page 6 of 6		Date originally posted: 2020-07-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/07/30/who-are-vox-and-who-are-their-voters/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Who are Vox, and who are their voters?

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Who are Vox, and who are their voters?

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