An assessment of the effect of supersonic aircraft operations on the stratospheric ozone content

An assessment of the potential effect on stratospheric ozone of an advanced supersonic transport operations is presented. This assessment, which was undertaken because of NASA's desire for an up-to-date evaluation to guide programs for the development of supersonic technology and improved aircraft engine designs, uses the most recent chemical reaction rate data. From the results of the present assessment it would appear that realistic fleet sizes should not cause concern with regard to the depletion of the total ozone overburden. For example, the NOx emission of one type designed to cruise at 20 km altitude will cause the ozone overburden to increase by 0.03% to 0.12%, depending upon which vertical transport is used. These ozone changes can be compared with the predictions of a 1.74% ozone decrease (for 100 Large SST's flying at 20 km) made in 1974 by the FAA's Climatic Impact Assessment Program

Environmental effects of SPS: The middle atmosphere

The heavy lift launch vehicle associated with the solar power satellite (SPS) would deposit in the upper atmosphere exhaust and reentry products which could modify the composition of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower ionosphere. In order to assess such effects, atmospheric model simulations were performed, especially considering a geographic zone centered at the launch and reentry latitudes

Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

International audienceWe use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and long-lasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more long-lasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume rise

Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

International audienceWe assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as previously estimated in analyses for full scale nuclear wars using high-yield weapons, if the small weapons are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2007) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales. We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread public debate

The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft: a First Program Report

Studies have indicated that, with sufficient technology development, high speed civil transport aircraft could be economically competitive with long haul subsonic aircraft. However, uncertainty about atmospheric pollution, along with community noise and sonic boom, continues to be a major concern; and this is addressed in the planned 6 yr HSRP begun in 1990. Building on NASA's research in atmospheric science and emissions reduction, the AESA studies particularly emphasizing stratospheric ozone effects. Because it will not be possible to directly measure the impact of an HSCT aircraft fleet on the atmosphere, the only means of assessment will be prediction. The process of establishing credibility for the predicted effects will likely be complex and involve continued model development and testing against climatological patterns. Lab simulation of heterogeneous chemistry and other effects will continue to be used to improve the current models

Economic Downturns, Urban Growth and Suburban Fertility in a Mediterranean Context

Despite the wealth of micro–macro data on short-term demographic dynamics, the impact of metropolitan growth and economic downturns on local fertility is still under-investigated in advanced economies. Recent studies in low-fertility contexts have assumed suburban birth rates as being systematically higher than urban and rural rates. This assumption (hereafter, known as the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) was grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities that imply a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors positively influencing fertility in suburban locations. To verify such a hypothesis from a macro (contextual) perspective, the present study compares the general fertility rate of urban, suburban, and rural settlements of the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece) at various observation years between 1860 and 2020. Long-term Athens’ growth represented a sort of ‘quasi-experiment’ for Mediterranean Europe, linking sequential urban stages and distinctive waves of economic expansion and recession. Using multivariate exploratory analysis and global/local econometric models, a dominant ‘rural’ fertility regime was recorded for 1860 and 1884. A characteristic ‘urban’ fertility regime was, instead, found over a relatively long, intermediate period between 1956 and 1990. Higher fertility in suburban settlements (10 km away from downtown Athens, on average) was, finally, observed since 2000. Considering a sufficiently long-time interval, the existence of multiple fertility regimes along the distance gradient has demonstrated how fertility dynamics are intrinsically bonded with metropolitan growth, economic downturns, and social transformations in Mediterranean Europe

Fibrin clot adhesion to conditioned root surfaces: an in vitro study with scanning electron microscopy analysis

Aim: Periodontal regeneration is contingent on the adhesion and maturation of fibrin clot to a root surface exposed to periodontal disease. Root surface demineralization in vitro improves the formation of a stable union between the fibrin clot and the root surface. In scientific literature there are not studies of comparison that stand which demineralizing agent is the best in promoting fibrin clot adhesion. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the efficacy of six root conditionings in removing the smear layer and developing the fibrin clot in static and dynamic conditions. Methods: 36 single-root teeth extracted for periodontal disease were cut with a microtome in order to obtain 72 specimens that were divided in three groups: 24 samples not covered with blood, 24 covered with fresh human whole blood, 24 covered with blood and rinsed in a rotary shaker table (Vortex\uae). 4 specimens from each group were conditioned for 3 minutes with: physiological saline solution (FISIO) as the control group, saturated solution of citric acid 25% (AC), ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid 24% (EDTA), a solution of tetracycline 200mg/mL (TETRA), a solution of tetracycline and citric acid (TETRA+AC), Prefgel\uae and successively Emdogain\uae (EMD). Then the 48 samples from group 2 and 3 were covered with blood, which was allowed to coagulate for 20 minutes in a 37\ub0C chamber. The blocks were rinsed and dehydrated under standardized conditions; specimens of group 3 were vortexed (100rpm). All the blocks were then sputtered with gold and analyzed with SEM. SEM images were evaluated by two blinded examiners, starting from the cementoenamel junction (CEJ), at 5 standardized points 2 mm distant from each other. A statistical analysis was performed. Results: EMD samples showed a more disorganized smear layer, in which is probably present the residual vehicle (propylene glycol alginate). However, in the 90% of all the specimens smear layer was found. AC treated samples showed a firmly adherent fibrin clot that covered the surfaces for the 70% of the specimens (the data was statistically relevant). Same results were found in TETRA+AC samples. The conditioning with EDTA, TETRA and EMD resulted in a sparsely organized clot worsened by the application of tensile forces, especially in TETRA samples. Only few blood cells without any clot organization were found in the control group, confirming that conditioning root surfaces improves the fibrin clot adhesion. Conclusion: The best formation of fibrin clot was observed for AC treated samples; this is probably due to the increase of root surface wettability caused by AC. The other root conditioning agents, even if lead to results better than the control group, are more susceptible to external forces and do not promote a stable fibrin clot adhesion