Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe

Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. Of particular interest is the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction timescale. The S2S prediction timescale has received increasing attention in the research community because of its importance for many sectors. However, very few forecast skill assessments of precipitation extremes in S2S forecast data have been conducted. The goal of this article is to assess the forecast skill of rare events, here extreme precipitation, in S2S forecasts, using a metric specifically designed for extremes. We verify extreme precipitation events over Europe in the S2S forecast model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The verification is conducted against ERA5 reanalysis precipitation. Extreme precipitation is defined as daily precipitation accumulations exceeding the seasonal 95th percentile. In addition to the classical Brier score, we use a binary loss index to assess skill. The binary loss index is tailored to assess the skill of rare events. We analyze daily events that are locally and spatially aggregated, as well as 7 d extreme-event counts. Results consistently show a higher skill in winter compared to summer. The regions showing the highest skill are Norway, Portugal and the south of the Alps. Skill increases when aggregating the extremes spatially or temporally. The verification methodology can be adapted and applied to other variables, e.g., temperature extremes or river discharge.</p

Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget

Persistent warm and cold spells are often high-impact events that may lead to significant increases in mortality and crop damage and can put substantial pressure on the power grid. Taking their spatial dependence into account is critical to understand the associated risks, whether in present-day or future climates. Here, we present a novel regionalisation approach of 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics based on the association of the warm and cold spells with large-scale circulation. We identify spatially coherent but not necessarily connected regions where spells tend to co-occur over 3-week timescales and are associated with similar large-scale circulation patterns. We discuss the physical drivers responsible for persistent extreme temperature anomalies. Cold spells systematically result from northerly cold advection, whereas warm spells are caused by either adiabatic warming (in summer) or warm advection (in winter). We also discuss some key mechanisms contributing to the persistence of temperature extremes. Blocks are important upper-level features associated with such events – co-localised blocks for persistent summer warm spells in the northern latitudes; downstream blocks for winter cold spells in the eastern edges of continental landmasses; and upstream blocks for winter cold spells in Europe, northwestern North America and east Asia. Recurrent Rossby wave patterns are also relevant for cold and warm spell persistence in many mid-latitude regions, in particular in central and southern Europe. Additionally, summer warm spells are often accompanied by negative precipitation anomalies that likely play an important role through land–atmosphere feedbacks.</p

Reactivity of shape-controlled crystals and metadynamics simulations locate the weak spots of alumina in water

International audienceThe kinetic stability of any material in water relies on the presence of surface weak spots responsible for chemical weathering by hydrolysis. Being able to identify the atomistic nature of these sites and the first steps of transformation is therefore critical to master the decomposition processes. This is the challenge that we tackle here: combining experimental and modeling studies we investigate the stability of alumina in water. Exploring the reactivity of shape-controlled crystals, we identify experimentally a specific facet as the location of the weak spots. Using biased ab initio molecular dynamics, we recognize this weak spot as a surface exposed tetra-coordinated Al atom and further provide a detailed mechanism of the first steps of hydrolysis. This understanding is of great importance to heterogeneous catalysis where alumina is a major support. Furthermore, it paves the way to atomistic understanding of interfacial reactions, at the crossroad of a variety of fields of research

Dynamic study of carbon nanotube growth and catalyst morphology evolution during acetylene decomposition on Co/SBA-15 in an environmental TEM

International @ SURFACES+FCA:MAO:ATUInternational audienceNon

Metal-Substituted Microporous Aluminophosphates

This chapter aims to present the zeotypes aluminophosphates (AlPOs) as a complementary alternative to zeolites in the isomorphic incorporation of metal ions within all-inorganic microporous frameworks as well as to discuss didactically the catalytic consequences derived from the distinctive features of both frameworks. It does not intend to be a compilation of either all or the most significant publications involving metal-substituted microporous aluminophosphates. Families of AlPOs and zeolites, which include metal ion-substituted variants, are the dominant microporous materials. Both these systems are widely used as catalysts, in particular through aliovalent metal ions substitution. Here, some general description of the synthesis procedures and characterization techniques of the MeAPOs (metal-contained aluminophosphates) is given along with catalytic properties. Next, some illustrative examples of the catalytic possibilities of MeAPOs as catalysts in the transformation of the organic molecules are given. The oxidation of the hardly activated hydrocarbons has probably been the most successful use of AlPOs doped with the divalent transition metal ions Co2+, Mn2+, and Fe2+, whose incorporation in zeolites is disfavoured. The catalytic role of these MeAPOs is rationalized based on the knowledge acquired from a combination of the most advanced characterization techniques. Finally, the importance of the high specificity of the structure-directing agents employed in the preparation of MeAPOs is discussed taking N,N-methyldicyclohexylamine in the synthesis of AFI-structured materials as a driving force. It is shown how such a high specificity could be predicted and how it can open great possibilities in the control of parameters as critical in catalysis as crystal size, inter-and intracrystalline mesoporosity, acidity, redox properties, incorporation of a great variety of heteroatom ions or final environment of the metal site (surrounding it by either P or Al)

Cervical epidural steroid injections in the management of cervical radiculitis: interlaminar versus transforaminal. A review

There has been recent concern regarding the safety of cervical epidural steroid injections. The decision to proceed with treatment requires balancing the risk and benefits. This article is an in depth review of the efficacy, complications, and technique of both interlaminar and transforaminal cervical epidural steroid injections in the management of cervical radiculitis

Titanium silicalite-1 macrostructures for photocatalytic removal of organic pollutants from aqueous media

Titanium silicalite-1 (TS-1) structures in the form of macroscopic beads with hierarchical porosity were prepared by the resin templating method. The Ti content within the samples was varied between 1 and 7 wt%, with corresponding surface areas ranging from 725 to 350 m2 g−1, respectively. The samples contained a large amount of amorphous material, which was necessary to achieve high mechanical stability of the beads. The TS-1 macrostructures were used as catalysts for the photocatalytic degradation of methylene blue (MB), and results were compared to the results for a commercial anatase nanopowder (CristalACTiV™ PC500). All TS-1 beads showed similar MB degradation rates independently of their Ti content, which was linked to variations in the surface areas and structure. The macroscopic shape of the TS-1 beads allowed easy recovery from the mother liquor upon decolouration of the MB solutions, which was highly beneficial compared to the reference anatase nanopowder. The TS-1 beads could be reused in subsequent photocatalytic cycles after decanting exhausted solutions and replacing with fresh MB solutions without any energy-consuming regeneration steps involved. The samples were tested in five consecutive cycles and MB degradation rates remained broadly unchanged during all tests