テイゲン Ⅲ 1 グローバルカ ノ ブンミャク ニ オケル ヒガシアジア リスク シャカイ ﾉ ローカル ナ チ ト ジッセン

日中台共同研究「現代中国と東アジアの新環境」①東アジアリスク社会―発展・共識・危機林礼釗　

提言Ⅲ② 全球化脈絡下東亞風險社會的地方知識與實踐

日中台共同研究「現代中国と東アジアの新環境」①東アジアリスク社会―発展・共識・危

Extreme Precipitation Estimation with Typhoon Morakot Using Frequency and Spatial Analysis

Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan and produced copious amounts of precipitation in 2009. From the point view of hydrological statistics, the impact of the precipitation from typhoon Morakot using a frequency analysis can be analyzed and discussed. The frequency curve, which was fitted mathematically to historical observed data, can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance for runoff events of a certain magnitude. The study integrates frequency analysis and spatial analysis to assess the effect of Typhoon Morakot event on rainfall frequency in the Gaoping River basin of southern Taiwan. First, extreme rainfall data are collected at sixteen stations for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours and then an appropriate probability distribution was selected to analyze the impact of the extreme hydrological event. Spatial rainfall patterns for a return period of 200-yr with 24-hr duration with and without Typhoon Morakot are estimated. Results show that the rainfall amount is significantly different with long duration with and without the event for frequency analysis. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that extreme rainfall for a return period of 200-yr is highly dependent on topography and is smaller in the southwest than that in the east. The results not only demonstrate the distinct effect of Typhoon Morakot on frequency analysis, but also could provide reference in future planning of hydrological engineering

The nucleolar protein NIFK promotes cancer progression via CK1α/β-catenin in metastasis and Ki-67-dependent cell proliferation.

Nucleolar protein interacting with the FHA domain of pKi-67 (NIFK) is a Ki-67-interacting protein. However, its precise function in cancer remains largely uninvestigated. Here we show the clinical significance and metastatic mechanism of NIFK in lung cancer. NIFK expression is clinically associated with poor prognosis and metastasis. Furthermore, NIFK enhances Ki-67-dependent proliferation, and promotes migration, invasion in vitro and metastasis in vivo via downregulation of casein kinase 1α (CK1α), a suppressor of pro-metastatic TCF4/β-catenin signaling. Inversely, CK1α is upregulated upon NIFK knockdown. The silencing of CK1α expression in NIFK-silenced cells restores TCF4/β-catenin transcriptional activity, cell migration, and metastasis. Furthermore, RUNX1 is identified as a transcription factor of CSNK1A1 (CK1α) that is negatively regulated by NIFK. Our results demonstrate the prognostic value of NIFK, and suggest that NIFK is required for lung cancer progression via the RUNX1-dependent CK1α repression, which activates TCF4/β-catenin signaling in metastasis and the Ki-67-dependent regulation in cell proliferation

地理統計應用於臺北市山坡地雨量站網評估與調整

土石流災害發生受到降雨的強度和空間變異性影響。因此，了解降雨的空間變異性特性是土石流減災的先決條件。在本研究中，針對不同降雨類型使用地理統計進行降雨空間變異特性分析，分別對夏季對流雨、颱風、梅雨和冬季鋒面雨進行分析，選取較適合的降雨空間變異特性。結果發現夏季對流雨的影響範圍最小 (約55 公里)，代表其空間變異大，而其他三種降雨類型影響範圍較大 (約69 公里) 則空間分布較均勻。因此，在研究中建議以夏季對流雨的空間變異特性，進行台北市雨量站網的評估。The intensity and spatial variability of storm rainfalls play an essential role in occurrences of debris flows. Thus, understanding and characterizing the spatial variability of storm rainfalls is a prerequisite for debris flows mitigation. In this study, we investigate the spatial variabilities of rainfalls induced by different storm types using geostatistics. Summer convective storms are found to exhibit higher degree of rainfall spatial variability than typhoons, Mei-Yu and winter frontal systems. The semi-variogram of hourly rainfalls of convective storms was then used to assist in evaluation and augmentation of an existing raingauge network in Taipei

Viral load and clinical features in children infected with seasonal influenza B in 2006/2007

Background/PurposeIn influenza B infection, viral load is believed to be related to the severity of clinical illness. The correlation between viral load and symptoms is not known. We conducted a study to assess the relationship between virus load and clinical features in children infected with influenza B, in the hope that clinical features could be used as surrogate markers of viral load to guide treatment.MethodsBetween December 2006 and February 2007, 228 patients with fever and respiratory symptoms were prospectively enrolled in our tertiary hospital-based study. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to determine viral load.ResultsReal-time RT-PCR was positive for influenza B in 76 patients. Using virus culture as the gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 87%, respectively. Influenza culture positive rate significantly correlated with viral load (p = 0.03). The median copy number of influenza B virus in the 76 RT-PCR positive patients was 9735 copies/ml (range 4.8×101–2.0×106 copies/ml). Samples obtained later in the clinical course tended to have lower viral load (p = 0.7), while patient age (p = 0.72) and fever duration (p = 0.96) positively related to viral load. In patients >3 years of age, myalgia was related to statistically lower viral loads (14300 vs. 1180; p = 0.025). Patients with chills tended to have higher viral loads (72450 vs. 7640; p = 0.1). Patients with abdominal pain tended to have lower viral loads (1998 vs. 12550; p = 0.06).ConclusionCulture rate positively correlated with viral load. Patients with myalgia had a lower viral load

Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement

Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME) model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, with southwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN) is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation