Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 temporal spread in Greece: an exploratory approach based on complex network defined splines

Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and the accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can be proven effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management of the available health resources

Intake estimation of total and individual flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins, their food sources and determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Epidemiological studies suggest health-protective effects of flavan-3-ols and their derived compounds on chronic diseases. The present study aimed to estimate dietary flavan-3-ol, proanthocyanidin (PA) and theaflavin intakes, their food sources and potential determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration cohort. Dietary data were collected using a standardised 24 h dietary recall software administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years. Dietary data were linked with a flavanoid food composition database compiled from the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and expanded to include recipes, estimations and retention factors. Total flavan-3-ol intake was the highest in UK Health-conscious men (453·6 mg/d) and women of UK General population (377·6 mg/d), while the intake was the lowest in Greece (men: 160·5 mg/d; women: 124·8 mg/d). Monomer intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 213·5 mg/d; women: 178·6 mg/d) and the lowest in Greece (men: 26·6 mg/d in men; women: 20·7 mg/d). Theaflavin intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 29·3 mg/d; women: 25·3 mg/d) and close to zero in Greece and Spain. PA intake was the highest in Asturias (men: 455·2 mg/d) and San Sebastian (women: 253 mg/d), while being the lowest in Greece (men: 134·6 mg/d; women: 101·0 mg/d). Except for the UK, non-citrus fruits (apples/pears) were the highest contributors to the total flavan-3-ol intake. Tea was the main contributor of total flavan-3-ols in the UK. Flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intakes were significantly different among all assessed groups. This study showed heterogeneity in flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intake throughout the EPIC countries

Estimation of the intake of anthocyanidins and their food sources in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study

Anthocyanidins are bioactive flavonoids with potential health-promoting effects. These may vary among single anthocyanidins considering differences in their bioavailability and some of the mechanisms involved. The aim of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of anthocyanidins, their food sources and the lifestyle factors (sex, age, BMI, smoking status, educational level and physisical activity) involved among twenty-seven centres in ten European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthocyanidin intake and their food sources for 36 037 subjects, aged between 35 and 74 years, in twenty-seven redefined centres were obtained using standardised 24 h dietary recall software (EPIC-SOFT). An ad hoc food composition database on anthocyanidins (cyanidin, delphinidin, malvidin, pelargonidin, peonidin, petunidin) was compiled using data from the US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and was expanded by adding recipes, estimated values and cooking factors. For men, the total anthocyanidin mean intake ranged from 19·83 (se 1·53) mg/d (Bilthoven, The Netherlands) to 64·88 (se 1·86) mg/d (Turin, Italy), whereas for women the range was 18·73 (se 2·80) mg/d (Granada, Spain) to 44·08 (se 2·45) mg/d (Turin, Italy). A clear south to north gradient intake was observed. Cyanidins and malvidins were the main anthocynidin contributors depending on the region and sex. Anthocyanidin intake was higher in non-obese older females, non-smokers, and increased with educational level and physical activity. The major food sources were fruits, wine, non-alcoholic beverages and some vegetables. The present study shows differences in both total and individual anthocyanidin intakes and various lifestyle factors throughout Europe, with some geographical variability in their food sources

Dietary intakes and food sources of phenolic acids in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Phenolic acids are secondary plant metabolites that may have protective effects against oxidative stress, inflammation and cancer in experimental studies. To date, limited data exist on the quantitative intake of phenolic acids. We estimated the intake of phenolic acids and their food sources and associated lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Phenolic acid intakes were estimated for 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years and recruited between 1992 and 2000 in ten European countries using a standardised 24 h recall software (EPIC-Soft), and their food sources were identified. Dietary data were linked to the Phenol-Explorer database, which contains data on forty-five aglycones of phenolic acids in 452 foods. The total phenolic acid intake was highest in Aarhus, Denmark (1265·5 and 980·7 mg/d in men and women, respectively), while the intake was lowest in Greece (213·2 and 158·6 mg/d in men and women, respectively). The hydroxycinnamic acid subclass was the main contributor to the total phenolic acid intake, accounting for 84·6-95·3 % of intake depending on the region. Hydroxybenzoic acids accounted for 4·6-14·4 %, hydroxyphenylacetic acids 0·1-0·8 % and hydroxyphenylpropanoic acids ≤ 0·1 % for all regions. An increasing south-north gradient of consumption was also found. Coffee was the main food source of phenolic acids and accounted for 55·3-80·7 % of the total phenolic acid intake, followed by fruits, vegetables and nuts. A high heterogeneity in phenolic acid intake was observed across the European countries in the EPIC cohort, which will allow further exploration of the associations with the risk of diseases

Pandemic Analytics by Advanced Machine Learning for Improved Decision Making of COVID-19 Crisis

With the advent of the first pandemic wave of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the question arises as to whether the spread of the virus will be controlled by the application of preventive measures or will follow a different course, regardless of the pattern of spread already recorded. These conditions caused by the unprecedented pandemic have highlighted the importance of reliable data from official sources, their complete recording and analysis, and accurate investigation of epidemiological indicators in almost real time. There is an ongoing research demand for reliable and effective modeling of the disease but also the formulation of substantiated views to make optimal decisions for the design of preventive or repressive measures by those responsible for the implementation of policy in favor of the protection of public health. The main objective of the study is to present an innovative data-analysis system of COVID-19 disease progression in Greece and her border countries by real-time statistics about the epidemiological indicators. This system utilizes visualized data produced by an automated information system developed during the study, which is based on the analysis of large pandemic-related datasets, making extensive use of advanced machine learning methods. Finally, the aim is to support with up-to-date technological means optimal decisions in almost real time as well as the development of medium-term forecast of disease progression, thus assisting the competent bodies in taking appropriate measures for the effective management of the available health resources

Assessing the Agricultural Sector’s Resilience to the 2008 Economic Crisis: The Case of Greece

This paper studies the resilience of the agricultural sector compared to eight other sectors of the Greek economy. The analysis is based on a multilevel methodological framework aiming to integrate equilibrium and evolutionary approaches by incorporating temporal (recovery and adaptability), geographical (regional resilience), and sectorial (industrial resilience) aspects, quantified concerning the 2008 economic crisis. Within this composite context, resilience is measured on GVA data according to a dual-axis: horizontally, in terms of measuring the recovering time or the time of transition to a new state of functionality due to a shock, and vertically, in terms of capturing the variability caused by the shock, approximating the system’s adaptability. The analysis shows that the agricultural sector in Greece is generally resilient; although, it has not retained its pre-crisis maximum performance, and it has the smallest Gross Value Added magnitude and the most uneven distribution across the regional dimension. Overall, the analysis promotes the methodological conceptualization of regional resilience and provides insights into the case study of the structural analysis of the Greek rural economy

Assessing the Agricultural Sector’s Resilience to the 2008 Economic Crisis: The Case of Greece

This paper studies the resilience of the agricultural sector compared to eight other sectors of the Greek economy. The analysis is based on a multilevel methodological framework aiming to integrate equilibrium and evolutionary approaches by incorporating temporal (recovery and adaptability), geographical (regional resilience), and sectorial (industrial resilience) aspects, quantified concerning the 2008 economic crisis. Within this composite context, resilience is measured on GVA data according to a dual-axis: horizontally, in terms of measuring the recovering time or the time of transition to a new state of functionality due to a shock, and vertically, in terms of capturing the variability caused by the shock, approximating the system’s adaptability. The analysis shows that the agricultural sector in Greece is generally resilient; although, it has not retained its pre-crisis maximum performance, and it has the smallest Gross Value Added magnitude and the most uneven distribution across the regional dimension. Overall, the analysis promotes the methodological conceptualization of regional resilience and provides insights into the case study of the structural analysis of the Greek rural economy

Intake estimation of total and individual flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins, their food sources and determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Epidemiological studies suggest health-protective effects of flavan-3-ols and their derived compounds on chronic diseases. The present study aimed to estimate dietary flavan-3-ol, proanthocyanidin (PA) and theaflavin intakes, their food sources and potential determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration cohort. Dietary data were collected using a standardised 24 h dietary recall software administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years. Dietary data were linked with a flavanoid food composition database compiled from the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and expanded to include recipes, estimations and retention factors. Total flavan-3-ol intake was the highest in UK Health-conscious men (453.6 mg/d) and women of UK General population (377.6 mg/d), while the intake was the lowest in Greece (men: 160.5 mg/d; women: 124.8 mg/d). Monomer intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 213.5 mg/d; women: 178.6 mg/d) and the lowest in Greece (men: 26.6 mg/d in men; women: 20.7 mg/d). Theaflavin intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 29.3 mg/d; women: 25.3 mg/d) and close to zero in Greece and Spain. PA intake was the highest in Asturias (men: 455.2 mg/d) and San Sebastian (women: 253 mg/d), while being the lowest in Greece (men: 134.6 mg/d; women: 101.0 mg/d). Except for the UK, non-citrus fruits (apples/pears) were the highest contributors to the total flavan-3-ol intake. Tea was the main contributor of total flavan-3-ols in the UK. Flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intakes were significantly different among all assessed groups. This study showed heterogeneity in flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intake throughout the EPIC countries