Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?

This paper examines the forecasting qualities of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) over a set of single factor models of short-term interest rates. Using weekly and high frequency data for the one-month Eurodollar rate, BMA produces predictive likelihoods that are considerably better than the majority of the short-rate models, but marginally worse off than the best model in each dataset. We observe preference for models incorporating volatility clustering for weekly data and simpler short rate models for high frequency data. This is contrary to the popular belief that a diffusion process with volatility clustering best characterizes the short rate.Bayesian model averaging, out-of-sample forecasts

2009年澳大利亚经济回顾:复苏之路

原载:THE AuSTrAlIAn ECOnOMIC rEVIEW,VOl.43,nO.1,PP.1-111.引言正如图1所示,2009年全球gdP增速急剧下降1,世界贸易也随之大幅下滑。受七国集团经济下滑影响,全球总产出下降了大概1.1%。就如多米若骨牌,美国增长率下降了2.7%

Co-movement and Integration among Developed Equity Markets

In contrast to the existing focus on intertemporal global integration, this paper examines equity market integration from the dual perspectives of the global-regional dichotomy and the equity market regime structure. Results are obtained using an exact Kalman filter with common regimes and GARCH innovations. According to the findings, market volatility during periods of low global and European volatility tends to be dominated by idiosyncratic shocks. In contrast, common factors are generally dominant for medium-level global and European shocks. Finally, although the importance of the common factors has risen, there is no clear evidence of a global or European integration trend.

The Macroeconomic Content of Equity Market Factors

Although existing research has examined the association between macroeconomic data and particular equity markets, little is known regarding the economic content of the latent factors common to equity markets. In this paper, several models are estimated to examine the economic composition of the common factors. A Bayesian selection process suggests that a common structure incorporating global and European factors is preferred to either the baseline case of a single global factor or the extended scenario of dual global factors. The common factors appear to be significantly associated with a small set of macroeconomic variables.

A Metropolis-in-Gibbs Sampler for Estimating Equity Market Factors

A model incorporating common Markovian regimes and GARCH residuals in a persistent factor environment is considered. Given the intractable and approximate nature of the likelihood function, a Metropolis-in-Gibbs sampler with Bayesian features is constructed for estimation purposes. The common factor drawing procedure is effectively an exact derivation of the Kalman filter with a Markovian regime component and GARCH innovations. To accelerate the drawing procedure, approximations to the conditional density of the common component are considered. The model is applied to equity data for 18 developed markets to derive global, European, and country specific equity market factors.Common factors, Kalman filter, Markov switching, Monte Carlo, GARCH, Equities

Factor estimation using MCMC-based Kalman filter methods

An exact MCMC-based solution for the Kalman filter with Markov switching and GARCH components is proposed. To motivate the solution, an international equity market model incorporating common Markovian regimes and GARCH residuals in a persistent factor environment is considered. Given the intractable and approximate nature of the model's likelihood function, a Metropolis-in-Gibbs sampler with Bayesian features is constructed for estimation purposes. To accelerate the drawing procedure, approximations to the conditional density of the common component are also considered. The model is applied to equity data for 18 developed markets to derive global, European, and country-specific equity market factors.

Examining Feedback, Momentum and Overreaction in National Equity Markets

The matters of asset price feedback, momentum and overreaction are theoretically motivated by a series of papers in the behavioural finance field. These papers propose theoretical conditions and examples pursuant to which traditional pricing rationales are inapplicable and asset prices are influenced by characteristics such as feedback and momentum (Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1988; De Long et al., 1990a,b; Hong and Stein, 1999). There are few empirical models and results, however, regarding the existence of feedback and reactionary effects, and the manner in which feedback effects are distributed across pricing factors. This paper derives a model entailing both factorspecific feedback and momentum effects, and overreaction. The model is applied to a set of developed equity markets, with results indicating that the majority of the markets exhibit some form of corrective feedback.

Sílabo del curso Diagnóstico e Informe Psicológico

El curso es de naturaleza teórico práctico. Tiene como propósito desarrollar competencias para el diagnóstico y la intervención en las diferentes áreas de la psicología aplicada. Los temas principales son: El proceso diagnóstico, la personalidad, su desarrollo y evaluación, el diagnóstico funcional y el diagnóstico psiquiátrico

Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic Variables Using a Large Dataset

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach for the Australian economy, and considers the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach relative to composite forecasts. Weighted and unweighted factor forecasts are benchmarked against composite forecasts, and forecasts derived from individual forecasting models. The results suggest that diffusion index forecasts tend to improve on the benchmark AR forecasts. We also observe that weighted factors tend to produce better forecasts than their unweighted counterparts. We find, however, that the size of the forecasting improvement is less marked than previous research, with the diffusion index forecasts typically producing mean square errors of a similar magnitude to the VAR and BVAR approaches. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E17PDiffusion indexes; Forecasting; Australia.