Relativistic Hydrodynamic Evolutions with Black Hole Excision

We present a numerical code designed to study astrophysical phenomena involving dynamical spacetimes containing black holes in the presence of relativistic hydrodynamic matter. We present evolutions of the collapse of a fluid star from the onset of collapse to the settling of the resulting black hole to a final stationary state. In order to evolve stably after the black hole forms, we excise a region inside the hole before a singularity is encountered. This excision region is introduced after the appearance of an apparent horizon, but while a significant amount of matter remains outside the hole. We test our code by evolving accurately a vacuum Schwarzschild black hole, a relativistic Bondi accretion flow onto a black hole, Oppenheimer-Snyder dust collapse, and the collapse of nonrotating and rotating stars. These systems are tracked reliably for hundreds of M following excision, where M is the mass of the black hole. We perform these tests both in axisymmetry and in full 3+1 dimensions. We then apply our code to study the effect of the stellar spin parameter J/M^2 on the final outcome of gravitational collapse of rapidly rotating n = 1 polytropes. We find that a black hole forms only if J/M^2<1, in agreement with previous simulations. When J/M^2>1, the collapsing star forms a torus which fragments into nonaxisymmetric clumps, capable of generating appreciable ``splash'' gravitational radiation.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PR

Impact of H1N1 on Socially Disadvantaged Populations: Systematic Review

The burden of H1N1 among socially disadvantaged populations is unclear. We aimed to synthesize hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality data associated with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 among socially disadvantaged populations.Studies were identified through searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, scanning reference lists, and contacting experts. Studies reporting hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality attributable to laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 pandemic among socially disadvantaged populations (e.g., ethnic minorities, low-income or lower-middle-income economy countries [LIC/LMIC]) were included. Two independent reviewers conducted screening, data abstraction, and quality appraisal (Newcastle Ottawa Scale). Random effects meta-analysis was conducted using SAS and Review Manager.Sixty-two studies including 44,777 patients were included after screening 787 citations and 164 full-text articles. The prevalence of hospitalization for H1N1 ranged from 17-87% in high-income economy countries (HIC) and 11-45% in LIC/LMIC. Of those hospitalized, the prevalence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality was 6-76% and 1-25% in HIC; and 30% and 8-15%, in LIC/LMIC, respectively. There were significantly more hospitalizations among ethnic minorities versus non-ethnic minorities in two studies conducted in North America (1,313 patients, OR 2.26 [95% CI: 1.53-3.32]). There were no differences in ICU admissions (n = 8 studies, 15,352 patients, OR 0.84 [0.69-1.02]) or deaths (n = 6 studies, 14,757 patients, OR 0.85 [95% CI: 0.73-1.01]) among hospitalized patients in HIC. Sub-group analysis indicated that the meta-analysis results were not likely affected by confounding. Overall, the prevalence of hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality due to H1N1 was high for ethnic minorities in HIC and individuals from LIC/LMIC. However, our results suggest that there were little differences in the proportion of hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality between ethnic minorities and non-ethnic minorities living in HIC

Supernova remnants: the X-ray perspective

Supernova remnants are beautiful astronomical objects that are also of high scientific interest, because they provide insights into supernova explosion mechanisms, and because they are the likely sources of Galactic cosmic rays. X-ray observations are an important means to study these objects.And in particular the advances made in X-ray imaging spectroscopy over the last two decades has greatly increased our knowledge about supernova remnants. It has made it possible to map the products of fresh nucleosynthesis, and resulted in the identification of regions near shock fronts that emit X-ray synchrotron radiation. In this text all the relevant aspects of X-ray emission from supernova remnants are reviewed and put into the context of supernova explosion properties and the physics and evolution of supernova remnants. The first half of this review has a more tutorial style and discusses the basics of supernova remnant physics and thermal and non-thermal X-ray emission. The second half offers a review of the recent advances.The topics addressed there are core collapse and thermonuclear supernova remnants, SN 1987A, mature supernova remnants, mixed-morphology remnants, including a discussion of the recent finding of overionization in some of them, and finally X-ray synchrotron radiation and its consequences for particle acceleration and magnetic fields.Comment: Published in Astronomy and Astrophysics Reviews. This version has 2 column-layout. 78 pages, 42 figures. This replaced version has some minor language edits and several references have been correcte

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages