A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update

Almost a decade ago David Gruen and Geoff Shuetrim constructed a small macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. A comprehensive description of this model was subsequently provided by Beechey et al (2000). Since that time, however, the model has continued to evolve. This paper provides an update on the current structure of the model and the main changes which have been made to it since Beechey et al . While the details of the model have changed, its core features have not. The model remains small, highly aggregated, empirically based, and non-monetary in nature. It also retains a well-defined long-run steady state with appropriate theoretical properties, even though its primary role is to analyse short-run macroeconomic developments.Australian economy; macroeconomic model; monetary policy

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

Manufacturing industry profile

This report provides a profile of the Manufacturing industry and its workforce, focusing on the sectors in which low-paid employees are relatively concentrated. Topics covered include industry structure and performance, the Manufacturing labour market, and earnings and wage instruments.&nbsp; Manufacturing has a mixture of low and high-paying sectors. There are considerable differences in the structure of firms between the low and high-paying sectors, with firms in the low-paying sectors more likely to be small and labour intensive. Activity has been shifting away from the industry; over the past three decades, output growth in Manufacturing has been slower than for all other non-farm industries, while total employment has been stagnant since the early 1990s. In particular, there has been a large fall in both output and employment in the Textile, clothing, footwear and leather manufacturing subdivision. Manufacturing does not have a high percentage of employees that are paid the award rate of pay; however, in terms of hourly wage rates adult employees in Manufacturing tend to be slightly more concentrated towards the lower end of the wage distribution than adult employees as a whole

Award reliance and differences in earnings by gender

The report uses data from both the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Employee Earnings and Hours (EEH) survey and the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, both of which have a measure of award reliance. Part 1 of the report examines the differences in earnings by gender in the 2010 EEH survey. Differences in earnings by gender are examined for all employees, award-reliant employees, and ‘other’ (i.e. non-award-reliant) employees. Differences are also examined for male and female employees based on the indicative skill level assigned to their occupational group under the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO). Part 2 of the report examines the differences in earnings by gender in Wave 9 of the HILDA survey. The HILDA survey data is also used to identify some of the differences in characteristics of male and female employees that could be associated with differences in earnings. Finally, the report uses the EEH data to consider the potential effects of flat dollar and percentage increases in award rates of pay on differences in earnings by gender

Employees earning below the Federal Minimum Wage

This report considers explanations for why data show adult employees earning below the hourly Federal Minimum Wage (FMW), including whether identifiable categories of employees fall into this group, and the extent to which this phenomenon is due to data problems. The three main data sources used were the Survey of Employment Arrangements, Retirement and Superannuation (SEARS); the Survey of Income and Housing (SIH) and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The three main datasets showed that around seven to nine per cent of adult employees with one job earned below the FMW in 2007–08. Compared to all adult employees, the types of employees who were over-represented among those earning below (or just above) the FMW included: women; those aged 21 to 24 or aged 65 and over; employees with low educational attainment; part-time and casual employees; employees in small businesses; those employed as Labourers, Sales workers, or Community and personal service workers; and employees working 60 hours or more. Employees earning below the FMW do not appear to have been a markedly different group to those employees earning just above it; rather there appears to be a gradual shift in the characteristics of employees as one moves further down the wage distribution. The limited evidence on the types of employees who are most likely to be affected by non-compliance is consistent with the patterns that were observed in relation to the characteristics of employees earning below the FMW. Employees being specifically excluded from the FMW, employees working long hours, and employees with salary sacrifice arrangements all appear to be partial explanations for the observed degree of below FMW employment but, particularly in the former case, it is difficult to accurately estimate their effect. There appears to be no single explanation for the phenomenon of below FMW employment; rather the evidence indicates it may be a combination of a number of factors

Self-reported physical activity before a COVID-19 ‘lockdown’: is it just a matter of opinion?

There are growing concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has facilitated a sedentary shift in our physical activity habits. A reduction in physical activity during the pandemic may be secondary to restrictive policies implemented at the government-level, typically those policies which limit interpersonal contact; for example, physical/social distancing. It is without question that social distancing is a necessary measure to mitigate community transmission of the novel virus; however, these policies often limit the public’s opportunities to engage in physical activity. The strictest enforcement of social distancing occurs during an authority-mandated ‘lockdown’ (also known as a ‘shelter-in-place’ or ‘stay-at-home’ order). This Viewpoint focuses on the current evidence demonstrating that physical activity declines during a COVID-19 ‘lockdown’. We highlight the point that most of the available evidence stems from investigations using non-validated, self-reported measures of physical activity and discuss the caveats therewith. This Viewpoint explores whether current evidence reflects an ‘actual’ or rather a ‘perceived’ reduction in physical activity, and raises the question of whether this distinction matters in the end

The Influence of Social Distancing Behaviors and Psychosocial Factors on Physical Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-sectional Survey Study

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has arguably facilitated a shift toward increased sedentariness and reduced physical activity. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that mental health has also declined during the pandemic. However, it remains unknown to what extent social distancing (SD) behaviors and mental health have affected the physical activity levels of the general population. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of SD behaviors and prevailing mental health on the odds of being physically active during the early COVID-19 pandemic response. METHODS: A total of 4819 adults (2474/4819, 51.3%, female) from the US population with a median age of 46 (IQR 35-59) completed an online survey during the early pandemic response (April-June 2020). The survey included questions on adherence to 11 SD behaviors, and validated questionnaires which assessed self-reported physical activity, depression, anxiety, and mental well-being. Respondents were categorized into 2 physical activity groups: inactive (0-599 metabolic equivalent of task [MET]-minutes/week) and active (≥600 MET-minutes/week). A logistic generalized additive model (GAM) was used to determine which SD factors and mental health outcomes were associated with physical activity level. RESULTS: The GAM analysis revealed that wearing a facemask in public (odds ratio [OR] 1.46, 95% CI 1.14-1.79; P=.003), limiting the use of public transport (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.19-1.83; P=.001), and restricting travel outside the house (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.19-2.05; P=.002) were SD behaviors associated with higher odds of being more physically active. Conversely, avoiding physical activity outside the house was associated with higher odds of being inactive (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46-0.63;