Modelling the response of a highly eutrophic lake to reductions in external and internal nutrient loading

The reduction of macronutrients to levels that limit primary production is often a critical element of mitigating eutrophication and reducing the potential for algal blooms. Lake Okaro has remained highly eutrophic despite an intensive catchment and in-lake restoration programme, including implementation of a constructed wetland, riparian protection, an alum application and application of a modified zeolite mineral (Z2G1) to reduce internal nutrient loading. A one-dimensional process-based ecosystem model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) was used in this study to investigate the need for further nutrient loading reductions of both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The model was calibrated against field data for a 2-year period and validated over two separate 1-year periods. Model simulations suggest that the trophic status of the lake, measured quantitatively with the Trophic Level Index (TLI), could shift from highly eutrophic to mesotrophic with external and internal loads of both N and P reduced by 75-90%. The magnitude of the nutrient load reductions is indicative of a major challenge in being able to effect transitions across trophic state categories for eutrophic lakes

Theory of second harmonic generation in few-layered MoS2

Recent experimental results have demonstrated the ability of monolayer MoS$_2$ to efficiently generate second harmonic fields with susceptibilities between 0.1 and 100 nm/V. However, no theoretical calculations exist with which to interpret these findings. In particular, it is of interest to theoretically estimate the modulus of the second harmonic response, since experimental reports on this differ by almost three orders of magnitude. Here, we present single-particle calculations of the second harmonic response based on a tight-binding band structure. We compare directly with recent experimental findings and include in the discussion also spectral features and the effects of multiple layers

Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives

We conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in the crude-oil market. We then develop a tractable model for pricing commodity derivatives in the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi-analytical prices of options on futures and futures curve dynamics in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector. The model performs well when estimated on an extensive panel data set of crude-oil futures and options.

Evaluating the influence of lake morphology, trophic status and diagenesis on geochemical profiles in lake sediments

Recent geochemical studies provide evidence that changes in vertical distributions of nutrients in lake sediments are driven by anthropogenic activities, based primarily on trends of increasing concentrations in upper sediment layers. However, we show that vertical concentration profiles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in lake sediments can be higher in the upper, most recently deposited sediment strata, driven largely by natural diagenetic processes and not eutrophication alone. We examined sediment cores from 14 different lakes in New Zealand and China ranging from oligotrophic to highly eutrophic and shallow to deep, and found that the shape of vertical profiles of total P, a key nutrient for lake productivity, can be similar in sediments across gradients of widely differing trophic status. We derived and applied empirical and mechanistic diagenesis steady state profile models to describe the vertical distribution of C, N and P in the sediments. These models, which focus on large scale temporal (decades) and spatial (up to 35 cm in the vertical) processes, revealed that density-differentiated burial and biodiffusive mixing, were strongly correlated with vertical concentration gradients of sediment C, N and P content, whereas lake trophic status was not. A sensitivity analysis of parameters included in the diagenetic model further showed that the processes including flux of organic matter to the sediment-water interface, burial (net sedimentation), breakdown of organic matter and biodiffusion all significantly can influence the vertical distribution of sediment P content. We conclude that geochemical studies attempting to evaluate drivers of the vertical distribution of sediment C, N, and P content in lake sediments should also account for the natural diagenetic drivers of vertical concentration gradients, assisted with application of similar models to those presented in this study. This would include quantification of key sediment diagenesis model parameters to separate out the influence of anthropogenic activities

A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing and Forecasting of Interest Rate Derivatives

We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It features correlations between innovations to forward rates and volatilities, quasi-analytical prices of zero-coupon bond options and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under both the actual and risk-neutral measure, in terms of a finite-dimensional affine state vector. The model has a very good fit to an extensive panel data set of interest rates, swaptions and caps. In particular, the model matches the implied cap skews and the dynamics of implied volatilities. The model also performs well in forecasting interest rates and derivatives.

The influence of sediment nutrient dynamics on the response of lake ecosystems to restoration and climate change

Human activities such as urban settlement, farming, forestry and recreation, have caused deterioration of water quality in many freshwater lakes worldwide. Apart from anthropogenic impacts, it is also recognized that climate has a direct influence on lake water temperature, nutrient loads, phytoplankton abundance and chemistry. However, little is known about the potential effects of future climate change on lake water quality. Understanding the dynamics, abundance and availability of nutrient pools in lake bottom sediments is fundamentally important for predicting how, and over what time-scales, lake ecosystems will respond to future scenarios such as climate change, in-lake restoration or altered external nutrient loading. Through a sediment field study on 14 different lakes, and applications of complex lake ecosystem models to three New Zealand lakes, this study examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of sediment nutrient concentrations, and made considerations of the effects of restoration measures and future climate change on lake water quality. To gain insight into processes influencing the dynamics of horizontal and vertical gradients of sediment nutrient concentrations, intact sediment cores were collected from twelve lakes within the Bay of Plenty province, North Island of New Zealand. In addition, intact sediment cores were collected from shallow Lake Te Waihora (Ellesmere) in the Canterbury province, South Island of New Zealand and shallow Lake Taihu in the Jaingsu province, China. The observed vertical concentration profiles of total phosphorus (TP) in the sediments revealed that the shape of these profiles can be similar across gradients of widely differing trophic status. Empirical and mechanistic steady state profile models were derived to describe the vertical distribution of total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN) and TP concentrations in the sediments. These models revealed that density-driven burial and biodiffusive mixing, which in the models also includes effects of redox-driven gradients, are strongly correlated with vertical gradients of sediment TC, TN and TP content, whereas lake trophic status was not. Despite enhancing knowledge of the processes influencing vertical gradients of sediment nutrient concentrations, little is known about the rates at which sediment nutrient concentrations may change as a response to changes in external loading or climate. Studies into the composition of bottom sediments have been undertaken intermittently over the past three decades for the 12 lakes in the Bay of Plenty. These studies, together with the data collected in this study, were used to quantify temporal changes in sediment chemistry across the lakes. Comparison of the data collected in this study with results from a survey in 1995 showed that surficial sediment (0-2 cm) TP concentrations have increased in three of the 12 lakes, at rates ranging from 27.5 to 114.4 mg P kg-1 dry wt yr-1. TN concentrations in surficial sediments have increased in nine of the 12 lakes at rates ranging from 51.8 to 869.2 mg N kg-1 dry wt yr-1. A correlation analysis revealed that temporal changes in sediment TP and TN concentrations were not significantly linearly related (pgt0.05) to catchment area or temporal changes of different water column indices considered to reflect lake trophic state, including annual mean water column concentrations of TP, TN or chlorophyll a (Chl a). While vertical profiles of sediment nutrient concentrations can be used to provide information about historical changes of trophic status in lakes, little is known about horizontal variability of sediment nutrient concentrations, including possibly relationships with horizontal variations in water column variables. In the large, shallow and eutrophic Lake Taihu, China, there are distinct horizontal water column concentration gradients of nutrients and Chl a. Concentrations are generally high in the north, where some of the major polluted tributaries enter the lake, and relatively low in the south, where macrophytes generally are abundant. To test whether these water column concentration gradients are similarly reflected in spatial heterogeneity of nutrient concentrations within the bottom sediments of Lake Taihu, I examined correlations between concentrations of TP and TN in surficial sediments (0-2 cm) and TP, TN and Chl a concentrations in water column samples determined for 32 sites in 2005. Linear correlation analysis revealed that surficial sediment TP concentrations across the 32 stations were related significantly, though weakly, to annual mean water column concentrations of TP and TN as well as Chl a. Correlations of surficial sediment TN with water column variables were, however, not significant (p gt 0.05). To better understand the effects of future climate change on lakes of different trophic status, I applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model, DYRESM-CAEDYM, to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu and highly eutrophic Lake Te Waihora. All three models were calibrated based on a three-year period (July 2002 - June 2005) and validated on a separate two-year period (July 2005 - June 2007). The model simulations generally showed good agreement with observed data for temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and total nutrient and Chl a concentrations. To represent a possible future climate of 2100, temperature predictions were derived from the regional climate model, DARLAM, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario, which suggests that air temperatures by the year 2100 will increase by an average of 2.5 'C and 2.7 'C for the Bay of Plenty and the Canterbury province, respectively, relative to the base scenario (years 2002-2007). Model simulations of the future climate scenarios indicate that climatic changes generally will lead to a degradation of lake water quality in all three lakes, especially during summer months, and further suggest that the effects on annual mean surface concentrations of TP, TN and Chl a will be equivalent to an increase in external TN and TP loading by 25-50%. Simulations for Lake Rotoehu, where diatoms and cyanophytes were represented in the conceptual model, further suggest that cyanophytes will be more abundant in the future, increasing by gt15% in annual mean biomass. Although the effects of climate change may be delayed or slightly mediated by the chemical resilience of the sediment nutrient pools, the effects of climate change on lake water quality in the New Zealand lakes will be of a magnitude that should be considered as management strategies are planned and implemented, thus increasing the probability of successful preservation or improvement in water quality in future decades

Butchering of Red Deer (Cervus elaphus L.): A Case Study from the Late Mesolithic Settlement of Tybrind Vig, Denmark

Butchering of Red Deer (Cervus elaphus L.) - A Case Study from the Late Mesolithic Settlement of Tybrind Vig, Denmar