Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean

Effective adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change has to: Consider local specificities; provide sound and practical information and deal with the uncertainty We present a methodology for assessing different aspects of adaptation. Our study case is adaptation of winter wheat in the Mediterranean

Wheat yield sensitivity to climate change across a European transect for a large ensemble of crop models

The sensitivity of a 26 member ensemble of process based wheat simulation models to perturbations in baseline temperature and precipitation was examined to construct impact response surfaces (IRS) of simulated yields

Type 1 Autoimmune Pancreatitis in Europe: Clinical Profile and Response to Treatment.

Background and aimsAutoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is an immune-mediated disease of the pancreas with distinct pathophysiology and manifestations. Our aims were to characterize type 1 AIP in a large pan-European cohort and study the effectiveness of current treatment regimens.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed adults diagnosed since 2005 with type 1 or not-otherwise-specified AIP in 42 European university hospitals. Type 1 AIP was uniformly diagnosed using specific diagnostic criteria. Patients with type 2 AIP and those who had undergone pancreatic surgery were excluded. The primary endpoint was complete remission, defined as the absence of clinical symptoms and resolution of the index radiological pancreatic abnormalities attributed to AIP.ResultsWe included 735 individuals with AIP (69% male; median age 57 years; 85% White). Steroid treatment was started in 634 patients, of whom 9 (1%) were lost to follow-up. The remaining 625 had a 79% (496/625) complete, 18% (111/625) partial, and 97% (607/625) cumulative remission rate, while 3% (18/625) did not achieve remission. No treatment was given in 95 patients, who had a 61% complete (58/95), 19% partial (18/95), and 80% cumulative (76/95) spontaneous remission rate. Higher (≥0.4 mg/kg/day) corticosteroid doses were no more effective than lower ( 2 weeks (OR 0.908; 95%CI 0.818-1.009). Elevated IgG4 levels were independently associated with a decreased chance of complete remission (OR 0.639; 95%CI 0.427-0.955). Relapse occurred in 30% of patients. Relapses within 6 months of remission induction were independent of the steroid tapering duration, induction treatment duration, and total cumulative dose.ConclusionPatients with type 1 AIP and elevated IgG4 level may need closer monitoring. For remission induction, a starting dose of 0.4 mg/kg/day for 2 weeks followed by a short taper period seems effective. This study provides no evidence to support more aggressive regimens

Technical design and architecture

This document presents the overall design and architecture of the DynaLearn system. It integrates the different lines of technological advancements within the project DynaLearn, and details the plans to be carried out in work packages 3, 4 and 5. The design specifies the working of the three main components, being conceptual modelling, semantic technology, and virtual characters. To a certain level of detail it also defines the subcomponents within each of these. The document includes the design of the data and knowledge exchange between the conceptual modelling environment and the arena of virtual characters, and between the modelling environment and semantic web technology. It also details the design of the overall user interface and features required for the virtual agents