Complex systems analysis in selected domains: animal biosecurity & genetic expression

I first broadly define the study of complex systems, identifying language to describe and characterize mechanisms of such systems which is applicable across disciplines. An overview of methods is provided, including the description of a software development methodology which defines how a combination of computer science, statistics, and mathematics are applied to specified domains. This work describes strategies to facilitate timely completion of robust and adaptable projects which vary in complexity and scope. A biosecurity informatics pipeline is outlined, which is an abstraction useful in organizing the analysis of biological data from cells. This is followed by specific applications of complex systems study to the fields of animal biosecurity and genetic expression. I provide evidence that social cues need to be considered by livestock facility managers in order to increase disease-resiliency of agricultural systems. I also identify significant changes in genetic expression from recent experiments which are advancing the frontiers of regenerative medicine. Areas of future work are discussed including issues related to agriculture and water quality, as well as studies of human behavior and risk perception using experimental gaming simulations

Effects of Social Cues on Biosecurity Compliance in Livestock Facilities: Evidence From Experimental Simulations

Disease outbreaks in U.S. animal livestock industries have economic impacts measured in hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Biosecurity, or procedures intended to protect animals against disease, is known to be effective at reducing infection risk at facilities. Yet, to the detriment of animal health, humans do not always follow biosecurity protocols. Human behavioral factors have been shown to influence willingness to follow biosecurity protocols. Here we show how social cues may affect cooperation with a biosecurity practice. Participants were immersed in a simulated swine production facility through a graphical user interface and prompted to make a decision that addressed their willingness to comply with a biosecurity practice. We tested the effect of varying three experimental variables: (1) the risk of acquiring an infection, (2) the delivery method of the infection risk information (numerical vs. graphical), and (3) the behavior of an automated coworker in the facility. We provide evidence that participants changed their behavior when they observed a simulated worker making a choice to follow or not follow a biosecurity protocol, even though the simulated worker had no economic effect on the participants\u27 payouts. These results advance the understanding of human behavioral effects on biosecurity protocol decisions, demonstrating that social cues need to be considered by livestock facility managers when developing policies to make agricultural systems more disease resilient

Risk attitudes affect livestock biosecurity decisions with ramifications for disease control in a simulated production system

HOG producers\u27 operational decisions can be informed by an awareness of risks associated with emergent and endemic diseases. Outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) have been re-occurring every year since the first onset in 2013 with substantial losses across the hog production supply chain. Interestingly, a decreasing trend in PEDv incidence is visible. We assert that changes in human behaviors may underlie this trend. Disease prevention using biosecurity practices is used to minimize risk of infection but its efficacy is conditional on human behavior and risk attitude. Standard epidemiological models bring important insights into disease dynamics but have limited predictive ability. Since research shows that human behavior plays a driving role in the disease spread process, the explicit inclusion of human behavior into models adds an important dimension to understanding disease spread. Here we analyze PEDv incidence emerging from an agent-based model (ABM) that uses both epidemiological dynamics and algorithms that incorporate heterogeneous human decisions. We investigate the effects of shifting fractions of hog producers between risk tolerant and risk averse positions. These shifts affect the dynamics describing willingness to increase biosecurity as a response to disease threats and, indirectly, change infection probabilities and the resultant intensity and impact of the disease outbreak. Our ABM generates empirically verifiable patterns of PEDv transmission. Scenario results show that relatively small shifts (10% of the producer agents) toward a risk averse position can lead to a significant decrease in total incidence. For significantly steeper decreases in disease incidence, the model\u27s hog producer population needed at least 37.5% of risk averse. Our study provides insight into the link between risk attitude, decisions related to biosecurity, and consequent spread of disease within a livestock production system. We suggest that it is possible to create positive, lasting changes in animal health by nudging the population of livestock producers toward more risk averse behaviors. We make a case for integrating social and epidemiological aspects in disease spread models to test intervention strategies intended to improve biosecurity and animal health at the system scale

Using experimental gaming simulations to elicit risk mitigation behavioral strategies for agricultural disease management

Failing to mitigate propagation of disease spread can result in dire economic consequences for agricultural networks. Pathogens like Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus, can quickly spread among producers. Biosecurity is designed to prevent infection transmission. When considering biosecurity investments, management must balance the cost of protection versus the consequences of contracting an infection. Thus, an examination of the decision making processes associated with investment in biosecurity is important for enhancing system wide biosecurity. Data gathered from experimental gaming simulations can provide insights into behavioral strategies and inform the development of decision support systems. We created an online digital experiment to simulate outbreak scenarios among swine production supply chains, where participants were tasked with making biosecurity investment decisions. In Experiment One, we quantified the risk associated with each participant\u27s decisions and delineated three dominant categories of risk attitudes: risk averse, risk tolerant, and opportunistic. Each risk class exhibited unique approaches in reaction to risk and disease information. We also tested how information uncertainty affects risk aversion, by varying the amount of visibility of the infection as well as the amount of biosecurity implemented across the system. We found evidence that more visibility in the number of infected sites increases risk averse behaviors, while more visibility in the amount of neighboring biosecurity increased risk taking behaviors. In Experiment Two, we were surprised to find no evidence for differences in behavior of livestock specialists compared to Amazon Mechanical Turk participants. Our findings provide support for using experimental gaming simulations to study how risk communication affects behavior, which can provide insights towards more effective messaging strategies

Emulating Agricultural Disease Management: Comparing Risk Preferences Between Industry Professionals and Online Participants Using Experimental Gaming Simulations and Paired Lottery Choice Surveys

Mitigating the spread of disease is crucial for the well-being of agricultural production systems. Implementing biosecurity disease prevention measures can be expensive, so producers must balance the costs of biosecurity investments with the expected benefits of reducing the risk of infections. To investigate the risk associated with this decision making process, we developed an online experimental game that simulates biosecurity investment allocation of a pork production facility during an outbreak. Participants are presented with several scenarios that vary the visibility of the disease status and biosecurity protection implemented at neighboring facilities. Certain rounds allowed participants to spend resources to reduce uncertainty and reveal neighboring biosecurity and/or disease status. We then test how this uncertainty affects the decisions to spend simulation dollars to increase biosecurity and reduce risk. We recruited 50 attendees from the 2018 World Pork Expo to participate in our simulation. We compared their performance to an opportunity sample of 50 online participants from the survey crowdsourcing tool, Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk). With respect to biosecurity investment, we did not find a significant difference between the risk behaviors of industry professionals and those of MTurk participants for each set of experimental scenarios. Notably, we found that our sample of industry professionals opted to pay to reveal disease and biosecurity information more often than MTurk participants. However, the biosecurity investment decisions were not significantly different during rounds in which additional information could be purchased. To further validate these findings, we compared the risk associated with each group\u27s responses using a well-established risk assessment survey implementing paired lottery choices. Interestingly, we did not find a correlation in risk quantified with simulated biosecurity investment in comparison to the paired lottery choice survey. This may be evidence that general economic risk preferences may not always translate into simulated behavioral risk, perhaps due to the contextual immersion provided by experimental gaming simulations. Online recruitment tools can provide cost effective research quality data that can be rapidly assembled in comparison to industry professionals, who may be more challenging to sample at scale. Using a convenience sample of industry professionals for validation can also provide additional insights into the decision making process. These findings lend support to using online experimental simulations for interpreting risk associated with a complex decision mechanism

Willingness to comply with biosecurity in livestock facilities: Evidence from experimental simulations

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Disease in U.S. animal livestock industries annually costs over a billion dollars. Adoption and compliance with biosecurity practices is necessary to successfully reduce the risk of disease introduction or spread. Yet, a variety of human behaviors, such as the urge to minimize time costs, may induce non-compliance with biosecurity practices. Utilizing a “serious gaming” approach, we examine how information about infection risk impacts compliance with biosecurity practices. We sought to understand how simulated environments affected compliance behavior with treatments that varied using three factors: (1) the risk of acquiring an infection, (2) the delivery method of the infection risk message (numerical, linguistic and graphical), and (3) the certainty of the infection risk information. Here we show that compliance is influenced by message delivery methodology, with numeric, linguistic, and graphical messages showing increasing efficacy, respectively. Moreover, increased situational uncertainty and increased risk were correlated with increases in compliance behavior. These results provide insight toward developing messages that are more effective and provide tools that will allow managers of livestock facilities and policy makers to nudge behavior toward more disease resilient systems via greater compliance with biosecurity practices

Connecting livestock disease dynamics to human learning and biosecurity decisions

The acceleration of animal disease spread worldwide due to increased animal, feed, and human movement has driven a growing body of epidemiological research as well as a deeper interest in human behavioral studies aimed at understanding their interconnectedness. Biosecurity measures can reduce the risk of infection, but human risk tolerance can hinder biosecurity investments and compliance. Humans may learn from hardship and become more risk averse, but sometimes they instead become more risk tolerant because they forget negative experiences happened in the past or because they come to believe they are immune. We represent the complexity of the hog production system with disease threats, human decision making, and human risk attitude using an agent-based model. Our objective is to explore the role of risk tolerant behaviors and the consequences of delayed biosecurity investments. We set up experiment with Monte Carlo simulations of scenarios designed with different risk tolerance amongst the swine producers and we derive distributions and trends of biosecurity and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) incidence emerging in the system. The output data allowed us to examine interactions between modes of risk tolerance and timings of biosecurity response discussing consequences for disease protection in the production system. The results show that hasty and delayed biosecurity responses or slow shifts toward a biosecure culture do not guarantee control of contamination when the disease has already spread in the system. In an effort to support effective disease prevention, our model results can inform policy making to move toward more resilient and healthy production systems. The modeled dynamics of risk attitude have also the potential to improve communication strategies for nudging and establishing risk averse behaviors thereby equipping the production system in case of foreign disease incursions

District 1 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Pilot Studies: FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Final Report

This report presents the results of a Climate Resilience Pilot Project conducted by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) District 1 and sponsored in part by the Federal Highway Administration. The objective of the study was to identify and classify the potential vulnerabilities of state owned transportation assets to climate change throughout District 1, which encompasses the counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, and Lake in north western California; and to identify and evaluate a range of adaption options to address the identified vulnerabilities at four prototype locations. The study involved the creation of a process for evaluating the vulnerability of Caltrans transportation assets in District 1 due to various climate change factors and development of a tool to assess adaptation strategies for vulnerable assets

Human behavioral factors influencing biosecurity compliance: Evidence from an Experimental Game

Livestock disease costs U.S. industries over a billion dollars annually. Yet measures to reduce the likelihood of acquiring a disease are frequently treated as unnecessary, a waste of time or are simply ignored. These measures, also known as biosecurity practices, are designed to respond to and reduce the impact of a disease outbreak, or to reduce the likelihood of disease incidence. We sought to examine messaging factors that could impact decisions to comply with on-premise biosecurity practices. To accomplish this, we used a computer simulation that was played as an experimental game in which participants acted as workers in a swine facility. Our game simulated a conflict where participants were confronted with a decision whether to comply with a common biosecurity practice: a “line of separation” at which workers shower and change clothing before entering or exiting areas with animals. This line of separation is considered highly effective for reducing the risk of disease infection. Use of a shower facility, however, carries opportunity costs associated with the time needed for its use, which can result in workers electing to bypass or only partially implement this practice. Here we show how compliance is influenced by message delivery methodology with numeric, linguistic, and graphical messages showing increasing efficacy, respectively. Moreover, increased situational uncertainty and increased risk are correlated with increases in compliance. These results provide insight towards developing more effective messages that will allow managers of livestock facilities and policy makers to nudge behavior towards more disease resilient systems via greater compliance with biosecurity practices